MLS: Week 3 - Wednesday kickoffs

NE@KC 7pm Central. No odds as yet.

I like KC at home as NE is without Twellman, Ralston, Larentowicz (red), and others. With events to date, KC is beginning to have that mental edge at home. We'll see what the odds are.

 

At what odds? How can you know the value if you don't know the odds?

 

I can't find best odds as websites are down, but I'll take KC for a theorhetical (if no odds are found) 2.10 for the following reasons:

*KC is hot (Playing streaks until they end is more profitable in most every betting endevor except craps. KC is 2-0, First place in East)
*KC is at home (2-0, First place)
*NE is playing it's second straight road game (It's been well documented that playing consecutive road games increasingly diminishes points earned)
*All of NE's starting midmield is either injured, suspended, playing with a knock, or a combo of the above. KC's starting mdfield except for Davy Arnaud, by contrast, is healthy although views of the productivity of them vary. Either way, they are 2-0.
*Weather. NE trained in the Bahamas and was pounded in the rain and cold of Chicago. It will be close to that here in KC Wed. night.
*No Taylor Twellman. The St. Louis native carpet bombs KC with goals as a matter of routine. Without him, I figue KC is basically up 1-0 at the start of the game.
*They don't draw often in KC 7-5-3 favoring KC is the all-time (in KC).
*Philosophy. Curt Onolfo goes for the points. Steve Nicol is ingrained to take the draw. When the two mesh in MLS, there is abundant history that going for it comes up Aces.

The only thing I see in NE's favor is KC has started poorly in each :20 of the first two home games. You could stretch and say KC's defense is suspect, but NE gave up 4 last week and was already down 1-0 when Larentowicz was given the gait. So, I'm not sure how that is an advantage exactly, a push maybe.

Combine all of the above I think the odds will reflect KC as a medium favorite at home.

Hartbeat says the value is on NE and certainly the Revs could win. I'd love to know how Hartbeat came to that conclusion.

 

2.3 it is on KC, Thx D.

If you would have asked me pre-season I would have agreed regarding KC struggling for goals at times. I'm not a huge believer in Lopez' game changing ability yet. However, he, Trujillo, Marinelli, and Colombano off the bench do combine well together. Synergy is evident - that being the sum being greater than the parts... Anyway, That was largely without Sealy and wholly without energy ball, Arnaud. Davy Arnaud being of the most fouls suffered in '07.

Other evidence that speaks contrary to KC struggling would be the 2.5 average so far. Sealy is back healthy which improves the XI and the bench (NE will barely have one tonight), Marinelli simply isn't turning it over in his zone at all or cheaply in the offensive zone, and KC scored two from set pieces last week. The sets are important as Nicol will caution his guys to be loathe to allow fouls out front to repeat the gifts Colorado gave. Teams get crushed by KC if they don't hack them and stop flow at home. This fact seems to be news to everyone as KC is never on TV.

The Asian might be turn out ot be a wise play as a) KC hasn't had much bad happen to them yet and this is MLS and MLS officiating. b) KC hasn't lost an opening flip yet. When they lose one, the smart teams would attack the Cauldron end in the second half. KC has scored all 5 goals driving into the Cauldron end in the second half. Wind has been a factor and should be today also. c) The crowd should be of a lesser number as the weather sucks, it's midweek, Wed. is a manditory church night here in Bible Belt (ugh!), and the Yankees are in town for what is basically a second "opening day" for people as the first one went RSO very quickly.

NE has a shot, but without a midfield on a smaller field, I like KC to be more likely to win by more than one.

-WC

 

I agree, KC had more of it all over the field except for the Ghanans. KC was dominant, but couldn't connect the last touch well enough to beat Reis on the 10-12 opportunities they had.

NE scored on a double KC-touch deflection OG, a well-earned breakaway, and a slightly junky one like KC earned a win with v COL. It happens sometimes on wet nights. Better to be lucky than good. I hit 18 on the Powerball tonight for $3 also. It happens.

Also, NE was 1-1 coming into the game as they were blown out in Chicago. If you are going to lecture it's good to have your facts straight.

Lastly, posting after the result here as if you knew things is just poor form. I hope you continue to post here after losing a few guesses in a row. Sometimes people spout off and get cocky as they win only to disappear after a bad week. We'll see what you do.

either way we all look forward to the opportunity to profit from your guesses. Good luck!

Best odds as of Thursday, home teams listed first:

San Jose vs. Chicago 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.83 odds
Columbus vs. Chivas 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.83 odds
New England vs. Colorado 1.80 l 3.40 l 4.50 odds
Dallas vs. New York 2.20 l 3.25 l 3.25 odds
Kansas City vs. Houston 2.21 l 3.25 l 3.25 odds
Salt Lake vs. DC United 3.25 l 3.25 l 2.25 odds
Los Angeles vs. Toronto 1.57 l 3.70 l 6.57 odds

 

Current Odds:
San Jose vs. Chicago 3.00 l 3.32 l 2.50 odds - OF the untouchable game, this would fit the bill. Teams win openers. Expansion teams tend not to, but they do also tend to be highly competitve. Chicago is the clear favorite on every line on the field with the possible exception of coach. SJ will have a line that features Nick Garcia, a smart player but on the definitive downside of the speed curve. As in all sports, if you lack speed, you have to give ground allowing angles and opportunities to exploit. Garcia isn't the only 'Quake with this issue. CHI has many guys that are stoppable, but not if you are conceeding ground. I wouldn't bet my own cash as openers uniquly bring the unexpected and SJ has deserved this day for a long time. But if forced, I take Chicago away.
CHI@2.5

New England vs. Colorado 1.83 l 3.47 l 4.65 odds - I like COL for the high value presented by the odds. NE may be better. NE might have advantages in places on the field. COL works hard and has the advantage of both being fairly young and they didn't play a game in another world mid-week. Couple that with NE's inability to shut down chances at any point in time against anyone and you have a situation. NE's best recipe would be to score early and often. COL's midfield ability and work rate should limit that and NE may be forced to protect a lead. I don't feel they can do that over :90 if they have to. NE should always be favored at home, I like a COL Asian as DRAW might have probablility much less merit, but I'll go for the big score with abundant value on the 'Pids.
COL@4.65

Columbus vs. Chivas 2.60 l 3.30 l 2.80 odds - Chivas is equal or better in almost every position. The odds come from CLB at home, CHV's lack of quality road history over the long term, and CHV's injusry list which is lengthy with playable "knock" type injuries. Those slow thin-hearted men like Razov, but not normally many others. If Razov is closer to 100% it may not make muxh difference. Hesmer for CLB has 2 pk saves already and CLB is only 1-1. TOR came close to getting points in Ohio and CHV's lineup will present new problems for Sigi's guys. CHV should be favored here and 2.8 represents good value for a road win at a middling East team that allows many shots and pk attempts.
CHV@2.8

Kansas City vs. Houston 2.35 l 3.32 l 3.10 odds - Houston has too many injuries. KC is getting healthier and doesn't generally have 2 poor outings on the scoreboard consecutively at home as they have the 4th best all-tme record at home in MLS history. Playing at home midweek is vastly different than flying Houston to San Jose to Houston to KC. I don't agree that KC looked old Wed. Cold and wet maybe. Unable to clear garbage out front, yes, but they were more than competitive. It will be very cold tonight at CAB. Important only as often my mind of a multiple Champion works as though time is plentiful. Early in the season isn't as important as late. KC is going on a 6-game roadie after this and will play this game as if life is in the balance. KC has a clear advantage in midfield and with the weather as they have practiced in this all week. HOU's GAA is 3.0 and KC generates chances with the best O's in MLS. Speaking for Houston is that the CAB crowd will be thin as weather and other events in KC will thin the crowd. KC has had issue clearing in deep. On balbance, I like KC by shoutout.
KC@2.35

Dallas vs. New York 2.20 l 3.40 l 3.28 odds - Coin flip game to me. NY is 7-6-1 all time v DAL in DAL. That's eough for me to chase right there. Add to it that DAL allows goals late for assurance. Speaking against NY is a) the loss of Jeff Parke while Toja is certain to control things on both ends for DAL and b) NY has only played CLB so there are questions. If NY, I'd like that a weaker Houston side scored 3 against DAL last week including a late GTG. No Angel is the difference here as DAL should have more space everywhere to alternately utilize Cooper as a post up target or runner.
DAL@2.2

Salt Lake vs. DC United 3.40 l 3.44 l 2.20 odds - I hate huge road favorites at clearly improved teams who also happen to be playing hungry. This screams "danger". Your choice is thin odds on a road team with many issues on both ends of the ball OR big odds on an out-manned team playing sligtly over their heads OR a bad math bet on a DRAW that seems possible enough to appear very much like a flip worm with a hook in it does to a Bass. Smart people would bet lightly on this one and avoid inclusion in parlays alltogether (parlays are a dumb idea anyway). To more tangible things: DC hasn't earned a point in Utah the last two trips. DC also traveled to Pachuca midweek, tonight they are at altitude. That's a recipe for late winners. RSL earned a credible draw against Chicago last week. Blanco had to get very lucky in the 93+ minute to earn the point. Unbeaten streaks in MLS often have the genesis of a hard point, well earned form what might have been a full 3. On field, I like the combo of turf, DC travels, altitude, and RSL doing quality things at most spots on the field over a full :90. As the line also offers good math to chase a dog, I have to recommend it, although DC would be a heavier favorite under any other circumstances or venues.
RSL@3.4

Los Angeles vs. Toronto 1.55 l 4.47 l 7.50 - Toronto has no answer for either a rested Donovan or Becks. TOR's backline is suspect, their midfield is weak, they have 1 away win in their history (last year), allowed 4 at DC last week, is playing consecutive road games, and Dicchio's skill is but a rumor. LA has backline and GK issues that can come into play and stands the only reason to entertain the gangantuan bait odds on TOR. LA is always better at home, better still when 3 times zones are in play, and will have more than enough here. More telling should be that this line has moved from the high 5s on TOR to the 7.5. Nobody can find a reason to take TOR at what will be among the highest odds on a dog all season. TOR has scored 1 goal all season and should need 3 to even think about claiming a point. Someone will convert a 6.0+ odds game, I don't think it will be the Leafs this week. Take the .55 unit as the gift it is. If your mutal fund returned 55% in a day, you know you'd be happy.
LA@1.55

Good luck to everyone.

 

Postmortem:

*SJ was more than competitive in puting 19 shots at net. None scored however and CHI snuck away in, yet again, very lucky fashion with 1-0 victory. Don't look now but CHI is unbeaten in their last 11 MLS league games.

*The shots giveth and the shots taketh away. In this case NE put 17 on Coundoul and COL only to come away blanked. Probably a just result after being mostly outplayed in KC last week. COL had just 4 shots, but made the one that counted stand up. Sometimes it pays to be ahead of the curve, COL had just 1 road win in its' last 13 games. Now they have 2 wins in 3, with a very competitive last second loss in KC. NE continues to get big offense without Twellman. I doubt you trade him, but allow me to be among the leaders in the idea that Twellman home to St. Louis is quickly gathering inertia.

*In Columbus: 36 shots, 15 on net, 8 yellow cards, two reds in two minutes to the same team, one straight red, a pk, and 7 goals. Nice game for the neutrals. The essence of a crap shoot for anyone with money on it. Some you lose. Pretty surprising tha Chivas can allow 4 to anyone anywhere, however. Two reds, both to parts in the Chivas defense will bear fruit next week also.

*I got the shutout part for KC correct, but they couldn't score. KC was a dismal miserable place to be yesterday; cold, sideways sleet, big wind, rain if you were lucky, grey, blah. Inside or elsewhere were the two options. Draw in those conditions tends to be a better bet, but not ever the weather guys knew it would be below freezing for a temp, much less the wind chill. Houston is struggling. Although HOU outshot KC, none were effective. KC goes on the road for 6 straight only getting 7 points out of the first 4 home games. Marinelli and Zavagnin hurt, Seally struggling, and Arnaud back in the first XI. KC is in a little trouble with just 1 win in their last 9 road games.

*I have some explanantion to do on this one. I originally picked NY to win for a wide variety of reasons. After posting originally I read the post by Freestyle that Angel was out. I immediately changed to Dallas as most all of my reasoning was connected to him, his skill and his size. Due to time, I couldn't go back and post all my thoughts, sorry for that. That's why the original post reads of two minds. There's two good points to make here: 1) Pay atention and get all the info you can. That's (hopefully) why we post here. 2) Loss of a superstar reverberates all through the lineup. Baseball has some similarities here to an Ace starter going down to injury. Suddenly the #2 starter has to pitch against the Aces, the #4 v the other #2's and so on into the bull pen where someone must become the #5 starter, and maybe worst of all the bull pen has to deal with the incresed pressue of knowing they will get more garbage thrown their way. Retrospect is always easy to disect, but very few teams overcome the late loss of a superstar like Angel, especially away. 2-0 Dallas where Dallas was struggling on D, big time. Without both Parke and Angel, Cooper had no physical equal on the field. Done deal.

*In Utah: OK, well. If you had RSL by 4 goals, then good for you. I had RSL, but 4-0?!? Wow. Apparently there is a good soccer team in RSL. They have now shown well in every game in '08. Those odds will stay slightly higher for a little bit as it will take some time to think that RSL is for real (no pun intende) as DC traveled abroad and played some second line men. RSL was plain better in every way. DC has been dominated by both KC and RSL now away. Might be worth alook to see how MLS teams fare in weekend matches both home and away after visiting CONCACAF teams in International midweek. I'd bet there is great carnage to be found.

More and more I believe that betting sports isn't always about the result. It's more a function of finding good situations with value in your favor. Home dogs at 2.7 or higher, overvalued media darlings (DC almost always), overvalued road favorites, young teams playing well with bad results (almost always undervalued), etc. In all situations you have to have reasons AND odds.

Better to view every bet as if you will make the same decision 100 times and you expect to come out ahead at the end of the 100 bets by the highest degree. Given that, what's the best decision to make? Another way to look at it is a 4.0:1 road dog with good aspects at a home team with issues only has to win 1 of those 4 types of game to beak even. If they take 2, you get a big 3 unit win plus the lost unit you avoid.

Good week so far 4-3 Up 5.75 units. Go LA.