MLS: Week 28

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, Oct 11, 2007.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Thu Oct 11 20:00 Dallas vs. Chivas 2.45 l 3.48 l 3.10
    Home team wins in this series. Dallas finally won a game at home and Chivas is unbeaten in 9. I have to lean towards Chivas for the following reasons: 1) Chivas is better at every line, 2) Dallas allowed 25 shots v CLB at PHP and was very lucky to win getting 2 very late to put up a very misleading 3-1 line, 3) Cooper played 0 minutes and that is the only guy Chivas has no physical answer for, 4) CHV is unbeaten in 4 away. 5) DAL will have concentrated on defending and fitness this week as HDC is bigger and wider that PHP. That leaves not much attention to offense. Chivas only has trouble with all-out attack. Anything less allows CHV youth and experience to flow forward and pick your bones. 6)DAL has Denilson and Ricardinho now, so what, CHV has contained slower older guys with hustle, effort, and possession. 7)Ruiz is back, but is usually ineffective after 2 weeks away (suspension last week).
    CHV@3.10

    SAT
    New England vs. Columbus 1.62 l 3.50 l 6.25 odds
    NE at home.
    NE@1.62

    New York vs. Kansas City 1.91 l 3.30 l 4.15 odds
    Road teams win ogften in this series. NY has only been good at home and is curently unbeaten in last 5 home games. KC has shown signs of life recently. KC leads MLS in shots, corners, and fouls suffered. NY's lack of defense and inability to stop anyone plays into KC's all-out attack. Dismiss as a "homer" call, but KC will get shots, everyone on the team is well overdue, and improvement in serveral areas is evident in KC's recent play if not the results. At the beginning of the year the questions with NY were who can stop Reyna. KC's been given the recipe for beating themselves, that being choke the service. That's been the recipe for beating NY as well. With KC being better on sets and NY not showing signs of being able to stop anyone, I like KC and that huge chasable number. NY will have Angel and KC has little to answer that. There isn't anything to like regarding NY's defense. An early goal will tell here and that team should win. Draw might happen, 2-2 would be my guess. I like KC to bust out and hit the net often in this one.
    KC@4.15

    DC United vs. Chicago 1.45 l 4.35 l 7.50 odds
    DC at home.
    DC@1.45

    SUN
    Los Angeles vs. Toronto 1.62 l 3.70 l 6.00 odds
    LA at home and streaking. TOR away, short, and not scoring for crap. That said LA at 1.62 is a ridiculously thin price I would not purchase. No value on any line here.
    LA@1.62

    Chivas vs. Colorado 1.44 l 4.33 l 8.50 odds
    CHV at home are undefeated. COL away is middling to poor. CHV, even on short rest finds a way to win 1-0 or 2-1. Galino is very overdue to score.
    CHV@1.44

    MON
    Salt Lake vs. Houston 3.30 l 3.25 l 2.25
    Houston lost last time to Utah. That's the only reason you get 2.25 on this. Not gonna happen this time. RSL better results, but still only 1 W in 7. HOU took the home loss last week after a good run.
    HOU@2.25
     
  2. harttbeat

    harttbeat Member

    Dec 29, 1998
    New York
    tough week so far. the dc and rev scores are definite shockers.
     
  3. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Chicago has been playing pretty well and draws happen, so games like dc's happen. No matter how bright a better may be a tie will bite occasionally. dc had their chances certainly.

    Columbus is a mild shock, but they have been right on the verge of winning for about 2 months now. Nobody blows points late every night. I believe in streaks and NE was the choice there. That night CLB snagged a winner against a defense that conceeds. So, OK, meh.

    To me bigger shocks were either Chivas result. When I posted I had no idea Razov and Galindo were hurt. Even so I probably still go with Chivas. The over-the-top ridiculous one was Colorado winning away giving CHV it's first home loss this season while up a man for half a game. To allow the minor miracle, Chivas had to waste 25 shots, get up a man, blow a lead, and then conceed in injury time to piss away the points. Sveral Goats could have pulled hat tricks. A Supporter's Shield contenter and the West Champion peppering 25 freaking shots on excitable Condoul, most of them up a man, and they score just one. ONE! All while conceedinging twice after going up a man. How is that even possible?!?

    Sheesh!

    Add to it KC puking on themselves almost any and every time they were near goal* and gifting not one but two goals to a highly beatable 2-man team with an A-league GK; and you have a well rounded cluster**** of a betting weekend.

    *EJ missed a poorly taken pk and several other quality shots just high or just wide. Sealy had the sitter off EJ's run from 7 yards out - he tripped on himself as the ball was just fractionally behind him. Even with that he had a second and a third bite that DvB cleared off the line with Conway turtled. Marinelli did one thing right the whole game and hit a banana dipper from wing right to an unmarked Arnaud who for some stupid reason decided not to head it in wide open from 5 yards out exactly on the far post, but chested it down and whiffed. Good choice. Davy could have just stood still and it might have caromed off him and in. Those were just the unexplainable ones. Two other shots found a flailing Conway who may or may not have known anything about them as shots hit close to his elbow from in tight.

    Sometimes I do feel stupid for missing tip offs and clues. Not this week. Just have to turn the page.

    Ugh!

    I'll spare you the rant on the late and total collapse of my alma mater Mizzou in Norman and the absolute atrocity that was the Nebraska 'Huskers at home this weekend. Not a good sporting Saturday night in the WC household this weekend.

    Go Houston tomorrow night.
     

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