MLS: Week 26

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, Sep 27, 2007.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    THUR:
    Kansas City vs. Los Angeles 1.75 l 3.95 l 5.00
    KC as a big home favorite. This hasn't happened in a while. Most of this is LA's dismal road record. KC has allowed 2 to everyone they hjave played recently. LA isn't up to the same standard of who they have played recently. Still LA is playing much beter and has found some width of late. The only thing for certain is that one or both teams will score late as KC rachets up the tempo. Sealy out is the largest loss for either team, and I'm including Becks. The argument against LA is easy. The argument for KC is the improved play of Eloy and Marinelli. This and the fact that LA has no Ante Razov means KC does enough here to win 3-2.
    KC@1.75

    SAT
    New York vs. Salt Lake 1.62 l 3.60 l 5.56
    No brainer, NY is good at home. RSL, although resurgent, is not good away. THis game will also be a small referendum on The Bruce. His results have been middling to poor given what NY has added. A loss to lowly-regarded but improving RSL will start the first embers of question in Bulls fans' minds. In the mental matchup of Kreis vs The Bruce, NY should have a decided edge. RSL has little to cover Angel, much less Doe. This has blowout potential. An RSL result does not bode well for the West in '08.
    NY@1.62

    DC United vs. Toronto 1.33 l 5.06 l 11.00
    I don't give alot of hard and fast rules, but here's one: When the dog is a 10 to 1 dog, take the favorite and be happy with the free .33 units. This especially when the dog is playing in RFK against 11 guys and 4 referees. 11 is the second biggest number I've ever seen. (12.50). For those thinking of chasing, the apt analogy is you stepping to the plate and swinging against, say, Mariano Rivera. You can have 20 strikes, it will make no difference.
    DC@1.33

    New England vs. Colorado 1.58 l 3.64 l 6.07
    Another good home/bad away combo. One loss in 9 at home vs 1 win in 10 away. There may be something to Oxygen high. COL has done many stupid things in the flatlands this year; that doesn't include getting rolled by RSL recently. Twellman hurt is the only concern here. NE has enough bench to overcome.
    NE@1.58

    Chivas vs. Chicago 1.50 l 4.05 l 8.50
    Chivas at home and all the America fans in the world will not help Chicago. DC is the only East team to take a point from the 2 time-zone trip West.
    CHV@1.5

    SUN
    Dallas vs. Houston 2.44 l 3.25 l 3.00
    Houston is 2-0-1 v DAL with the tie coming in the first PHP game in Dallas. I'm a big proponent in taking HOU at 3.0 any time I can. Barring a big injury listed on the preview (not up yet), I like HOU. The worry here is that Toja and Cooper will be coming back to full fitness. It's also a solid reason to take HOU as those two players should either necessitate subs or they will be forced to be below 100%. Not good when facing anyone, much less MLS' best defense.
    HOU@3.00

    Columbus vs. Los Angeles 1.93 l 3.40 l 4.00
    Hard to pick LA away. CLB will be fighting for playoff survival and if other results got heir way, they could pick up the full 3. They will also be better rested and playing a short defense. If there was ever a time to go huge on Columbus, this is it. CLB loses this game and Sigi should probably just keep walking to the airport.
    CLB@1.93
     
  2. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    What a disaster. LA bunkers all game because they have almost nothing on the field and have a game Sun. KC dominates all game, misses open nets, and takes two reds. Ball game. KC is in ruins and will have only one legit forward next week at DC. That will be a blowout. LA will get pummeled in Columbus as well.
     
  3. harttbeat

    harttbeat Member

    Dec 29, 1998
    New York
    my take for saturdsay
    -New England Revolution vs. Colorado Rapids Under 2½ (EVEN)
    -New York Red Bulls -1 (+110)
    -DC United vs. Toronto FC Under 2½ (+120)
    -Chicago Fire +450

    my theory***
    -colorado will try to look for the counter and stay at home all game against NE.
    -i like the bulls winning by more than 1. i expect angel and alitodore to start
    -dc coming off weekday match. i look for them to sit one or two of the top guns. toronto cant score.
    -i just like the fact the fire have more to play than chivas. i like the upset. if u want to play safe, take the goal at +1.
     
  4. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Had I seen this earlier I would have commented.

    -COL isn't a countering team normally. From the half a game I saw, they attacked. The UNDER bet was good as Twellman was out.
    -RSL had been playing better and continues to do so. I lost this one also. NY needed a pk late just to tie. RSL is playing worlds better since ditching Klein and hiring Lagerway. If you are not paying attention, that's 5 straight competitive road games for RSL...and 5 points. It is strange to see an Arena coached team continue to screw up winnable games.
    -TOR is toothless, DC rampant at home. No shock. It's only happened a few hundred times before. DC is an UNDER candidate at home only during monsoons...even against Houston. Always take the OVER if DC is at home. You'll pay your mortgage eventually. Also, in the future if you want the UNDER on DC at home, drop me a PM. I'll take your action most likely.
    - Taking CHI was bold. CHV is unbeaten now in 14 '07 home games. 5 SOG total for both teams speaks well for CHI's defending away.

    As for the SUN games: HOU has treated DAL like a fire hydrant all season, so why not agian. They get the cannon. I get a juicy 2 unit net profit on HOU away. That was like stealing. DAL loses Ruiz for next week/HOU loses Clark...the rivalry continues. This should be the Round 1 West matchup and the TV series if there is any justice.

    Good thing, as LA gets yet another win away at hapless CLB. I didn't see this one, but stats tell a story of not only an array of chances blown for CLB, but also of yet another lead blown late, death of a team's playoff dream, and most surprisingly, LA has now scored on all 3 of its' only 3 SOG in the last 2 games. You tell me LA gets only 3 SOG in two games away and I tell you KC and CLB each get 3 points. Wow, that's why they play the games.

    3-4 for the week Down 1.1 units.
     

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