MLS: Week 25

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, Sep 19, 2007.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    As always, pick what you can from the MLS previews.

    29-11 Up 25.44 units during the last 6 weeks. 6 of the 11 losses were draws. At $10 a game, that pays for the '08 MLS PPV package and the required digital package quite nicely. That in turn would help you get better info on next year's bets, hopefully helping you make more money in '08

    WED:
    Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles 2.35 l 3.98 l 3.10

    RSL just traded for 5-goal scorer Movsisyan and LA still has a long injury list. Plus LA is away and Becks-less. LA is winless in 15 MLS away games. Fifteen. This seems the most easily winable road game LA will have until this fixture next year...but I don't have an other reason to bet on LA away and that means take the home team, even if it's RSL. I'd be more confident about the pick if I knew Movsisyan wasn't starting but maybe coming off the bench. One thing that speaks clearly in RSL's favor is the hiring of Garth Lagerwey at the GM posion. Everyone in red will be playing for their jobs tonight.
    RSL@2.35

    THU:
    Dallas vs. Chicago 1.97 l 3.30 l 4.30
    I like DAL at home. Kenny Cooper will probably get bench minutes, Ruiz is scoring again. This is for Brimstone. DAL won in Chicago. Check the injury list on this one, but Blanco's excellence will tail off as the pace of this one passes him by.
    DAL@1.97

    SAT:
    Toronto vs. Columbus 2.38 l 3.20 l 3.00
    TOR still can't score. C-bus will as they have scored better of late. Hesmer has been consistent quality in net for Columbus. Nothing he could do on any of the 3 allowed to KC last week. one pk and two corners picked.
    CLB@2.38

    New York vs. New England 2.38 l 3.20 l 3.03
    Tough game to settle. NY is vastly different in excellence, for whatever reason, at home. Everyone scores on NE. The key comes in a given team's ability to curb NE to a goal or less. NY hasn't shown that ability of late. Waterrus hasn't shown ability to erase the many opportunities allowed by his defense.
    NE@3.03

    Salt Lake vs. Colorado 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.80
    Rocky Mountain Cup. COL leads this series 1-0-1. It will continue, especially as RSL is on short rest. The price is close becasue RSL has played much better soccer of late and COL is winless away in 9 games. 2 days rest vs 6 for COL. No alltitude advantage for RSL. Rapids with the odd goal.
    COL@2.8

    Chivas vs. Kansas City 1.83 l 3.40 l 4.50
    Chivas unbeaten at home speaks loudly. I'm a big proponent of playing the streak uintil it dies. The only thing keeping me from doing so is that Scott Sealy is healthy again and combining effectively with Eddie Johnson. Eloy Colombano is presenting a problem down a wing and coming to fitness. Nobody outside Arrowhead wants to see that, not even Chivas' high quality defense. KC's last roadie was a well-earned point at holders Houston. I want to so badly chase the 4.5 number as that is a legitimately ignorant price for a team with KC's speed up top. The password is "overlay". This isn't your older brother's Chivas, but KC hasn't ever lost to the Goats in 5 meetings, (3-0-2). Chivas allowed KC space enough to score 3 when KC was struggling without a healthy Sealy in the game in KC. Combine that with Chivas' recent 1 goal outing and lead blown against 10-man Colorado and KC starts to look better. In streak vs streak, DRAW is a always serious consideration, even for me. Not only does a 1.83 price not excite me here, but I'm on house money, so I'll chase the overlay and hope for Guzan to allow a rebound or two. They will get poached if he allows them. 3-2 KC seems likely, as does 2-2.
    KC@4.5

    SUN:
    Chicago vs. DC United 3.00 l 3.20 l 2.38
    DC is unbeaten in forever, streaking, and playing both sides of the ball very well. CHI is on short rest following a Derby. DC in a blowout.
    DC@2.38

    Los Angeles vs. Dallas 2.70 l 3.20 l 2.84
    DAL in a close game. Ruiz' return to LA will be enough of a spark for DAL on short rest away at HDC. LA's Nth consecutive week of 2 games every week. DAL late will be the differential required.
    DAL@2.84

    Good luck!
     
  2. Freestyle2000

    Freestyle2000 Moderator

    Feb 6, 2000
    LA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    DC is missing three starters for that one, all from the midfield (Olsen, Gomez, Fred). DC also traditionally struggles against Chicago. Be wary - unlikely to be a blowout...

    RS
     
  3. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Maybe, but I still like dc in this situation.

    WED: What are you going to do? Like I said, Movsisyan did start and although he did create a pk, his defense (lack of it) helps LA score 2. LA shows up with an actual game and gets a road draw. LA still winless in forever away.

    THUR: I dropped the ball on this one. Blanco did get left behind for pace most of this one, but I had no idea Chris Rolff was back from injury.

    The above is what happens when you get a few results, start feeling good about your base of knowledge, and tank the effort portion. As always, this is about info. I didn't have enough. I probably still don't take draw, but without the intel I don't have a chance to sort it out.

    SAT: Never heard of the guy that scored for Toronto? Me either. CLB sorts out a win, no surprise. I might be my only win of the week.

    I really thought NE and having them score two would have been enough. Waterrus' GAA is abysmal. Draws are rampant in MLS at the beginning and end of the season. This was one of those weeks. Oh well. I obviously ddidn't think the Doe guy for Bulls was capable of 1 and 1 v NE.

    In Salt Lake, COL continues their season long streak of futility on the road. RSL continues to play solid soccer. Rimando is suddenly playing out of his diminutive grape. My screw-up here is easy to flesh out. COL streaking negatively at a team playing respectably of late. For whatever reason, I can't get COL games right. I'm batting about .300 on games involving the 'Pids.

    At HDC, perrenial Wizard killer Razov does it again with a 2 goals and the GWG in the dying seconds. Never mind that KC had the better chances all game long, and dominated the opening :70. Never mind that KC attacks and atacks and attacks until they get those goals at the death. Never mind that Scott Sealy was hurt during practice and did not dress, or that 2 Wizards had to be subbed out for injury, including Sealy's replacement after :30, Pore, with concussion-like symptoms. With all of that, if I can ever feel OK about losing a prediction, this is probably it. Another day and KC is up 3-1 at the back end of this thing. I don't know if Sealy's injury was listed or not. I mentioned his importance. That would have been an important detail to have as KC with him is decidedly sub-par. KC was decided not a 4.5 underdog today. Great win by Chivas. THey are my choice at home vs anyone the rest of the year regardless.

    Bottom line is I'm 1-5 going into a Sunday that I thought would be clear wins, but LA is playing better and apparently DC is shorthanded. On balance, I still like the two picks to hold up.
     
  4. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Postscript to the rehash, my harsh day:

    It started well as USA beat England soundly. Good enough. The other game was forgetable. I couldn't get back to sleep for a quick nap before a friend's poker game at noon...had to play tired. It was a nice buy-in Hold 'Em rebuy tournament. I'll spare you the gorey details, but the story began with a convoluted tournament structure with rebuys but no add-on, 5 denominations of chips, the money being short somehow; me either getting sucked-out on repeatedly, running one overpair into the very next higher overpair to the board, or being forced all-in due to a small stack where I end up dominated, and lastly 3 of the 4 people who sucked out on me making the 5 that were in the money.

    Yikes. Not my day.

    Sometimes the coolers find you, no biggie. Those eliminated played lower buyin freeze outs. I played 4 of those while the big tourney finished. 0-4 and the only thing that changed was the generic suckouts turning into runner-runner suckouts 3 of the 4 times. Yeah, I didn't break the speed limit on the way home... I thought I'd complete the emptying of my wallet by filling up my gas tank.

    Then I come home to see my betting errors on mlsnet and watch KC end the way they did. Now I'm wired on the caffine than I otherwise never have.

    Oh well. Australia and Brazil should be entertaining in a few hours.

    Hope you had a better day.

    :p
     

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