MLS: Week 23

Chivas 2.50 3.27 3.20 DC United

Tough line for a very tough game to call. Both teams are playing superior soccer and this is the best game of the week on paper. They are the two hottest teams in MLS. Both teams have combined for a 10-1 record in the last 11 league games. Chivas has won 4 of 5. DC is on a 6 game win streak. Chivas has not lost at home this season and has won 6 straight at home. Chivas has the pace to both cancel DC's attack and to create their own problems for DC to attempt to handle. This will have the effect of slowing DC down from even their normally reserved bunkering counter-attack road style. Chivas also has the best defense in MLS in addition to a quality attack. DC pounded Dallas at PHP in their last road game. It’s close but I’ll take Chivas by the odd goal. I like Galindo and Razov to have good games up top.
CHV@2.5

 

Nobody catches more undeserved breaks than dc. It's almost as if there is a league mandate that all referees must give the black and white one call good for a goal for or against every game. Bad calls happen. But EVERY FLIPPING GAME! Every single goddam game?!? Onward:

Sat:
Columbus 2.25 l 3.42 l 3.25 Chicago
Marshall and Mapp still out for their respectives. 9 & 10 seeds meet here. CLB slumping everywhere. Chicago slumping away. Both teams need full points, so I don't see any way this ends in a DRAW as that might doom both teams. This is essentially a playoff elimination game. COL and KC are hoping for a draw to solidify their seeds. CHI has a history of being able to win in COlumbus 5-7-4. For that reason and Blanco, it's hard to pass up CHI's price.
CHI@3.25

Houston 1.55 l 4.15 l 7.50 Salt Lake
RSL is surging and playing much better. Good enough to take out Houston? Probably not. The number sucks, but so do the alternatives. HOU has the single best defense in MLS.
HOU@1.55

Dallas 1.55 l 4.28 l 7.00 Toronto
Dallas was pounded at home last time out. Look for a rebound here. Toronto away is good enough for me to take DAL also. TOR has nothing to contain HOU in midfield. Dichio also out.
DAL@1.55

Los Angeles 2.60 l 3.45 l 2.79 Colorado
LA-league Gals are the smallest home favorite for good reason. 0 wins in 8, just 1 win in 10, Beckham hurt, no Grey, Donovan, Jazic, Albright, Roberts, and Harden...little offense, pourous defense, young team, etc. COL will have Maestroeni. Colorado is unbeaten in 4, but also is also winless in their last 8 road games. You have to think this is the best opportunity COL has for a road 3 pointer, but it's hard to bet a win out of the blue with no history of it. It isn't often you get a 3.45 DRAW number, and that seems an outcome likely-er than not. I still have to go with the Rapids here. LA has nothing but 11 jerseys tonight.
COL@2.79

Sun:
DC United 2.10 l 3.25 l 3.35 New England
NE hasn't beaten DC yet - (0-1-1) DC is playing on shorter rest. NE played a USOC match midweek and DC played in Los Angeles Thursday. DC hasn't lost anywhere in 2 months and has run off 10 straight unbeaten at home since losing to KC, the last road team to win at RFK this year. NE will win the 4th match-up when they meet. With both teams on short rest, it's good to lean to the home team. Plus there is that whole gift call for a goal thing dc has on permanent call up. I can't do a DRAW pick here, even thought that may be the best price.
DC@2.10

Chivas 2.10 l 3.30 l 3.50 New York
Tough call as Chivas is playing on short rest. New York is resurgent on both sides of the ball. Chivas has not lost at home all year. NY has just 1 win in last 6 away. Draw is likely. I like Preki's men at home. Angel early for NY. Chivas by the late odd goal off the bench and El Guzano to make it stand up.
CHV@2.10

 

A 5-2 week. Up 4.55 units. I'm now actually above .500 for the season at 74-73.

I failed to get Colorado right. No shock, I never get Colorado right. 7-16 this year. I didn't factor in that LA had a week where they were at home and able to rest more than 2 days. Oops. Anyone else have the trifecta of Jones, Gordon, and all Klein getting on the scoresheet? Didn't think so. Oh well, it did KC a favor.

I also failed to guage the strength of DC's unbeaten run vs the unbeaten home run of Chivas. That and the gift offside call dc always seems to get.

The wins were better. Home favs Houston and Dallas were the no-brainers. DC on short rest more than had enough for NE. It was a little shocking to see how easily dc overcame a home deficit to a good team. DC at home looks like gold. DC anywhere else still seems reasonable.

Chicago was good away as expected. Columbus is in the process of doing a quick fade into oblivion. Slumping and rested KC is up next.

Clear patterns of Chivas winning at home, NY losing away and winning at home are long past developed.

 

Nice! Good for you.

At the risk of sounding completely full of myself... As an absolute iron-clad irrefutable rule, going forward, it's always - and I mean always - better to take the individual bets and bet them individually.

Always.

If you do the math with the odds of the 4 teams you pick - and sportsbooks do this always before posting parlays - you'll find that the odds on the parlay are somewhere between a direct multiple of the individual odds and 40% less that the product of those odds.

Meaning that even under the best of circumstances you are increasing your risk at least two-fold on a two team parlay and almost infinitely as you edge towards 10 teams or more. Under the worst of circumstances you are still increasing your risk while minimizing your reward.

Basic financial law dictates that if you have two outcomes that pay the same - say two mutual funds with the same historical return - you always take the one with less internal risk. Also, if you have two investments with the same risk, you always take the one with more return.

For simplicity consider 3 games with pick'em odds on a parlay. Pick'em odds are exacty 50% for each team. Applying that math to a 3-team parlay with no vigorish works like this:

Your chances of winning 3 coin flips without any other info or advantages is
(.5*3)/1
OR
1/(2*2*2)
OR
1/8 OR
.125.

Your chance of losing that bet is 1 - .125 or .875. or 87.5% or 7 times out of every 8.

A parlay like this would never pay 7:1, but would pay something like 6:1 at best. Using 6:1, you have this math over 8 weeks: 7 losers at -$30 and 1 winner at $180 each is a net loss of $30 or an EV of -$3.75 for each bet. This only if you win exactly as you should.

Conversely, if you were to put $10 on the three individual teams each week - again at pick'em odds - over the same 8 weeks (24 games) you have this: 12 wins and 12 losses for a net loss of nothing (actualy you lose the vig on all winning bets as the house always makes money. The house vig will never be more than 10% unless you are stupid, so the EV is never less than -$1 on a $10 bet.

-$1 is crap, but it is much greater than -$3.75 on that same $10 bet. The reason is that you get to capture value on all situations where you win 1 or 2 of the 3 underlying games during a given week. Yes, you lose value on the rare occasions you go 3 for 3, but the value gained is much greater than the minimal value lost according to the math.

Putting the above math back into the concept of financial law says that betting individual games not only has less risk of loss (it's called "risk of ruin" in bankroll lingoas a loss is always the full 100%), but pays better long term. It's the nice way of saying betting parlays is never the best choice, even when you win.


Putting it into soccer terms the above situation is even worse. At even odds on every outcome (think a 3-sided coin or 3 colored marbles in a bag), a 2-team parlay is 8:1 to win, 3-teams is 26:1, and your 4 result parlay is a robust 80:1. Even taking the 4 teams you mentioned at those best odds I posted is 20.3 to 1 which is slightly less than a 5% chance to win (again this without everpresent vigorish). I'm guess you didn't get paid anywhere close to 20:1 on your outstanding win.

If for instance you recieved 10:1 on the 4-team win, that means you gave up over 50% of what you should have recieved on a 20:1 payout. That 50% is the penalty you pay for taking a unbelievable chunk of greater risk. Ouch. Good math for the house, but not us. Adjust the math for whatever you did get paid and whatever odds you did take.

Soccer has 3 odds commonly at 2.5:1 or greater given 3 possible results instead of two. The bigger the odds offered on a team the larger - and consequently more attractive - the parlay numbers become. This allows the house greater opportunity to not only offer less than fair value but to also win the underlying bet. Especially given the fact that the majority of punters will follow up a big win with bigger or more frequent bets to try and capture the "hot streak" that never comes.

All that does 9 of 10 times is not only return the money to the house faster, but usually it brings friends with it in the form of chasing or "I'm going to get even" dollars. This goes for every casino game you can think of, including sports betting.

Bottom line is bet individual games, stay away from props and parlays. You'll make more money or at least lose less over time.

Good luck!

-WC

 

Well obviously that's over 16:1, so do go back and figure the odds to see how much vig you're giving up. If you don't have those odds availabe, that's one of many good reasons why we all should keep detailed records.

Not to prove I'm right or anything like that, but just so you know what nut you are paying for the thrill of a big(ger) score. Over time you can't beat math, you can only get lucky. All gamblers take a flyer now and then. I've been known to stupidly throw a dollar at "Aces" occasionally at the craps table. the vig on that bet is a robust 16.67%. In english, that's equavalent to a historical -16.67% mutual fund! Ouch. Third worst bet on the table next to "Big 7" and "Pressing" your bets.

Also, beting, "only $8", doesn't change the math. A parlay will amost always be a worse bet than other available alternatives. If the bet was $1 or $1M the vig you pay on every dollar wagered is generally the same. A given bet isn't better or worse based on what you devote to it. Only in poker and paramutual racing does the size of bet change your specific odds.

Still, nice win, whatever your nut was. Congrats!