MLS: Week 22

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, Aug 28, 2007.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Salt Lake 3.35 l 3.30 l 2.35 Kansas City

    Well, this is the toilet game of the week, IMO. RSL is now reduced to spoiler, has just 1 win in hteir last 17 competitve games, and has lost 5 straight. KC lost to a vastly different RSL team earlier this in the USOC, will miss Davy Arnaud through yellow suspension, is currently playing like garbage on both sides of the ball, and KC is winless in two previous games at altitude this season (0-1-1).

    I don't know what positives can be said about RSL except maybe their last game was only a 2-0 blowout away to a very good Chivas side. KC was also blown out 2-0 in Chicago, both goals coming at the end of each half. Both teams will view this fixture as the best opportunity for points they will likely see for a while.

    RSL has lost Adu, Cunningham, and Klein from the team that beat KC in spring. RSL has added Eskandarian and Findlay. KC, by contrast has onlyadded Eloy and Marinelli.

    Bottom line is RSL hasn't won anywhere in a long time and KC at least has some results recently.
  2. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    DUnno if you bellieve in etherial things like Karma, goodness being rewarded, and what goes around comes around. I believe there is a certain unquantifyable basis to these things. To wit, the following story I recieved minutes after posting the above from a KC Wizards Weekly e-mail:

    Defender Nick Garcia, his wife and mother-in-law were on their way back from a Kansas City Royals game August 12 when they saw a senior citizen woman sitting in her car near Russell Stovers on the plaza with her flashing lights on. The party pulled over and helped the woman, staying until police arrived.

    To Garcia's surprise, he found himself mentioned in a letter to the editor in the Kansas City star regarding the event the following Sunday, August 19:

    Kansas City Kindness
    I love Kansas City. At 10 o'clock Monday night, my car was stopped at Volker and Oak Streets. A man called the police at my request, and several men pushed my car out of traffic.

    A group of people returning from a Royals Game waited with me until a tow truck arrived. Among them were Kansas City Wizards defender Nick Garcia and a Montessori teacher (Garcia's mother-in-law).

    I love Kansas City and its big-hearted, helpful people.

    Rosalea Snow
    Overland Park

    It may sound silly, but there are reasons I posted this.
    1) Gambling, like the market, is about information received sooner than the next guy.
    2) Most do a nive thing expecting nothing, happy with a Thank You maybe. When you are recognized it maked the heart and spirit that much lighter. There is no question players play better both unburdened and sometimes over-burdened.
    3) Sefishly, KC's a good place most days. Spend some time here if you can. Try and avoid August and whenever the annual ice storm hits...again, if you can.

    I love KC also, as do most that move here. Whatever your view of it, I still like KC in this one.

  3. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    I'm 17-3 the last 3 weeks. Up 17.5 units. Home favorites have been fruitful. Late winners and few draws have helped.

    New York 1.85 l 3.40 l 4.50 Chicago
    NY at home is good enough for me. Draw has merit here at CHI is playing better with Blanco. For that reason the slanted price on NY is on the poor side of risk. There are better lines.

    Dallas 2.20 l 3.25 l 3.40 dc United
    DAL at home is unbeaten in 6. DC has won 5 straight anywhere and is the hottest team in MLS. For me, even the streaking black and white is still no reason to mess with a home streak here. HOU came into PHP hot recently also and left with a point. Check the injury report on the preview. I like hoops at home.

    Houston 2.00 l 3.30 l 4.50 Kansas City
    HOU at home to a struggling team that can't get out of it's own way. KC has problems in midfield, defense, at GK, finishing, coaching, and in the front office. KC is a disaster right now. By contrast HOU is getting home wins and seems to have ironed out the issues apparent at altitude in past weeks. HOU also has more rest than KC, who tanked Wed. night in RSL. HOU has workers in midfield. KC has individuals. If you can find a good line on a blowout for HOU, spend the extra bet. The only danger here is KC has the capability to be all-world or all-crap...usually in the same game. It's hard to know which team you get game to game. I know what I get with HOU in orange.

    Los Angeles 1.80 l 3.40 l 5.00 Salt Lake
    I like RSL. LA has played 2 games a week for about 7-8 weeks now, has a depleated roster that isn't very good to start with, and just lost Beckham. RSL is coming off of a comprehensive win where they ran KC into the ground all over the park. LA at home is usually a different animal than what we've seen, but RSL is playing well. LA is not. Why not chase a price here? It may not happen but 5.00 is out of whack for this situation

    Columbus 2.10 l 3.25 l 3.80 Colorado
    This is a virtual playoff game for the #8 seed. COL is playing well. CLB is tough to beat as they get many draws. Betting the streak of form would say take COL. I'll recommend that even though draw has big merit here.
  4. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    OK, so if you were among the faithful who put down some scheckles on RSL at the nice 4 to 1 price, you're very welcome. If not, well, I try to be helpful.

    Two things from this week that stand out:
    1) RSL was my third recent reccommendation to take a 4.5 or higher price. This one was the only one that hit. On balance that's a 2 unit uptick or .667 units per bet.

    2) Draws have been rare recently. When they do creep up, almost all of them have had this phrase in my preview, "..draw has merit here." I have not gone back and counted, but over the last 5-6 weeks, if you would have had draw every time I mentioned that, you would be at least .500 on hitting draws. As they pay on average +2.4 units per hit, that's an uptick of .7 units for every bet or 70% Return on Investment...again only if you had the stones.

    I rarely pick draws as the above occurs rarely. Still, it's something to watch and I'll keep mentioning draws as apossiblitity where I feel it is warranted. Also, MLS history has draws early and late season as more common for whatever reasons. Astute readers will notice the prices on draws in competitive matchups heading toward 2.25 accordingly.

    Good luck!

    Most of these results are documented here in this forum (except when I forget to post or can't).

    Winners keep, here's my record for recent periods of time and on teams this year. I bet 1 unit per game with no variation. I post it not to brag or be selfish, but only to illustrate my relative bias (if any) through record:

    This week: 2-3, Up 1.85 units

    Last 4 weeks: 19-6, Up 19.33 units

    This season: 69-71, Up 20.5 units.

    Individual teams in '07:

    W L Units +/- (times .1 for actual units)
    NY 11 12 28.0
    CHI 11 11 -4.0
    HOU 12 12 6.8
    LA 9 10 -39.0
    COL 7 15 -41.7
    KC 11 12 -6.8
    DC 11 10 67.7
    NE 11 10 50.0
    CMB 8 14 -6.7
    RSL 10 9 0.0
    CHV 13 7 76.1
    TOR 13 9 40.3
    DAL 11 11 34.3
    Total 69 71 205.0

    Note: I include wins and losses for teams if involved in games I bet. For instance, a 1 unit bet on KC at HOU that HOU wins would count as a loss for both teams, but a -1 unit in the numerical unit total for KC only, as I bet ON KC. A negative 1 unit will look like -10.0 on the total +/- above.


Share This Page