MLS: Week 2 - Thursday Doubleheader

Your Thursday game odds (Tuesday's odds)
Los Angeles vs. San Jose 1.65 l 3.50 l 4.50 odds

I have little read of this yet. LA is blatantly horrible with no back line, no cohesion, no speed, a massive ego for a coach, and little hope of anything. But, LA is at HDC. SJ has little to nothing but a great coach. Regardless, 1.65 on LA seems way out of line, even for the Quakes renewal of the rivalry.

Chicago vs. New England 2.20 l 3.20 l 2.90

More when the injury list and previews come out.

 

Not alot of juicy games this week. Most are tough 2-way calls or the odds are very thin. I would be loath to overload any one game.

Latest odds:

Thu Apr 03 19:00 Chicago vs. New England 2.55 l 3.42 l 3.06 odds

I like NE hrere for several reasons, among them: a) current form - NE won 3-0 and CHi gave up 17 shots to RSL and needed a fortunate break and finish from Blanco in the dying seconds to preserve a tie. b)NE is better - even without TwellmanNE's bench is a cut above. CHI starts Diego Gutierrrez still. c) NE has proven at every point that they do well against CHI. d) intangibles. NE's view of this game will be the sole and complete domination of a division rival by winning th is game. The '08 schedule has this as the only game of 3 playing in Chicago. Right here, right now Ne buries CHI in a hole for the entire season. Winning the head to head season series is always the best way to finish above your rival in the division. NE can do that today. By contrast, CHI will just be playing an opener. If CHI gives up even half of the shots they allowed to RSL they will lose. e) value - NE just ashcanned the Champs 3-0 and you still get 3.06?!? Plus the line is moving as money is bet on Chicago. Nice, I'll take it.
NE@3.06

Los Angeles vs. San Jose 1.88 l 3.57 l 5.00 odds

I wouldn't put actual cash on this game as SJ is mostly a complete unknown without a foward and LA just plain sucks wihtout a defense. We are put in a position to surmise just who sucks less in a rivalry-type game. Almost imposible. But, here I as at 4 in the morning with a cold that has completely torqued my sleep schedule, so I'll take a shot. SJ went 5-1-2 in the pre-season winning the Carolina Challenge Cup and several games v MLS competition. I'm not sure LA rises to the level of "MLS competition". Further, LA is in an opener, so unless they score early, look for HDC to turn like left-out buttermilk. SJ is playing Game 1 in the renewal of a franchise where guys in the lockerromm will understand the histoury of the shirt and this rivalry. I only hope we get to hear the pre-game speech on ESPN2. SJ also has Yallop who will know everything important about LA. Gullit, by contrast is mailing it in for a paycheck IMO. The argument for LA distills to opener vs expansion team and SJ has little to nothing up top and not much speed at the back.

On balance, I like SJ's argument better. The problem is barring a 1-0 win with Cannon standing on his head and SJ bumbling in a goal, I'm not sure how else that can happen. Can SJ really win 3-2 or even 2-1? I don't think so. They can pull out a draw however. I can see that 0-0 or 1-1. Sometimes sports betting isn't about the likely result, but about the value of betting a given result. 3.57 on a draw is about as rich as it gets for this situation. This especially as both teams have a brittle-thin WIN arguments. Rare as it is...
DRAW@3.57

Sat Apr 05 16:00 Kansas City vs. Colorado 2.13 l 3.25 l 3.40 odds

I like KC to shut down Cooke and company. Meyers (KC's #1) should play also. COL can be overcomfident with 4 goals last week. I also like how KC should be able to match up on the wings allowing speed to dictate what COL can do in a way LA found impossible. Among the tough things in MLS is playing at altitude vs a struggler and then trying to repeat that success vs any kind of quality away. COL hasn't ever shown a consistent ability to do that. My record betting them reflects this frustrating fact. Also playing into it is teams at home in consecutive weeks tend to do disproportionately well in MLS. Gametime was also moved up, creating a jet-lag effect possibility of 4 hours to a standard mountain time kick off. Only Cooke has been a thorn in KC's side so if KC can dilute his effectiveness, I see no other barriers to a KC home win.
KC@2.13

Sat Apr 05 18:30 New York vs. Columbus 2.00 l 3.35 l 3.70 odds - NY in an opener with Angel ready to go. That's enough for me and it should be enough for you. If you need more CLB isn't good in NY, NY has a new coach that was of quality in Chicago, Ny is in every way a much better team than Toronto, and most of CLB's recent problems have been away.
NY@2.0

DC United vs. Toronto 1.53 l 3.75 l 7.25 odds

DC shutout in it's last two games, both away, and TOR has only won once in the 16 away MLS starts in thier history. DC opens at home in front of the bouncing faithful at RFK. Um, yeah, take DC, give the points, etc.
DC@1.53

Chivas vs. Salt Lake 1.57 l 3.70 l 6.57 odds

Preki's quality men in an HDC opener. RSL away. I don't care that RSL was quality at home vs CHI. This is on grass at sea level, which is among the 100 reasons why the odds are so thin. Don't chase the 6.57, you'll grasp smoke and nothing else.
CHV@1.57

Houston vs. Dallas 2.00 l 3.35 l 4.00

Yuck, not a good one to pick. Like DC, Houston hasn't scored yet either. One league game and a CONCACAF game, both shutouts. Dallas gets men back from suspension, but hasn't ever won in Houston (hence the big odds). I think when you combine that with Ching being chosen to sit v Saprissa - he should be highly motivated - I like Houston to defend the cannon in a rivaly game in front of a sold-out orange-clad highly partisan house. There's a multi layered and good argument for chasing the odds with Dallas, but the overriding fact to me is that two-time defending Champions never allow rivals to extend shutout and losing streaks. It just doesn' thappen. If it does, you may have a recipe for a season long tank job by the orange. I can't see that happening so it ends Saturday night.
HOU@2.0

Good luck.

 

I didn't think so. Regardless, you should have won the OVER bet. SJ's disallowed goal was certainly onside.

As for my picks - both large losers - I can only say I've been sick and on antibiotics all week, and that apparently affected my brain.

SJ was every bit as good as LA in my opinion, but the sheer world class of LD and Becks were clearly the difference. Another day and those brilliant touches for both goals don't happen. Put that with the disallowed SJ goal and my pick isn't that far off.

CHI was gifted the game in the 7th minute by the horrible red card to Larentowicz. Not even sure he made contact, much less enough to get the gait. For about :15 after the cared NE was still the dominant team. But, you shouldn't be able to play in any league a man and a goal down for :83 and have it work out. Also contributing to the error in pick was that somehow, even after reading the preview, I missed tha Ralston was out. That's a very big piece of everything NE does. Oops.

That's one view. Another is I'm just a pure idiot for picking against two home teams in home openers, one vs an expansion team. Teams don't lose openers.

So much for being ahead. Saturday should be better.

 

...and it was. To be fair, it was a very predictable week. Taking the home favorites to convert is normally a nice low-risk way to make a little money.

Chivas and DC combined to give over a full unit win combined (+1.1 units), KC and their coach's go for it always mentality produced a late winner for well over a full unit win on it's own (+1.13), Metros converting the home opener for a unit. That's the good news.

Houston rolls over at home to allow Dallas to leave with a draw. Dallas fans should be ecstatic as the record against Houston is now just 5-1-3 lifetime. The defending Champions are now dead last in MLS among teams >2 seasons old. Onstad and the Houston D now have a robust GAA of 3.00. Wow. Big odds on that 3 weeks ago.

So I'm 4-3 on the year up 1.6 units. Not bad, should have been better. My two weaknesses this season seem to be a constant inability to predict a draw or incorporate it into the overall scheme AND I probably have to feel like I left money on the table picking against teams in their home openers. Teams win home openers of any kind.

I should make myself review this thread and last week's before starting next season.

Not crying. It's either sarcasm or blunt statement of fact. Good pickup on the draw. Bank it. Keep picking them all year and you'll go broke.


For everyone: Odds on MLS draws are generally 3.5 for 1 or less. As the historical number of draw results in MLS has hovered close to 24% of all results or about 4 for 1 odds, it's always a negative Expected Value (EV) play. Even at 3.5 for 1 for DRAW (on the high end of odds normally) this EV is about -12.5%. That's a very heavy vig. By comparison, one of the worst games in casinos in Missouri are American Roulette wheels with the two green spots (0 and 00). They are only about -5.5% EV. Meaning for every $100 bet you expect to lose about $6 at best. Translated back into DRAW betting: Best case scenrio, for every $100 bet on DRAW you expect to lose about $13. Ouch. You have to be all-world to overcome that long-term. If you are that good, first good for you! Second, still a mathematically better alternative would be to avoid it all-together and concentrate on winners, but I digress.


If you are lucky enough to get a draw result home here and there, then good for you, outstanding, and enjoy it. Carried over a lifetime of 100+ DRAW bets, you are almost assured to lose money if you are lucky and go broke if you are not.

Soccer is unique in that it carries with it the expectation of some draws. However, a better methematical alternative would be to bet the ASIAN lines available. The return is less, but if DRAW is highly likely in a situation, then you have less risk of ruin on the bet and therefore less risk, period.

For purposes of this thread and simplicity, I leave the Asain line out as an alternative.

Philosophically, you have 3 alternatives as you can pick either team to win. The DRAW as an alternative increses the odds on offer for a WIN result when compared to sports that can't end in a tie. So is it best to bet the DRAW and be forced to get lucky or to accept the DRAW result as a necessary loss in favor of the odds on offer for a WIN result? See *** below.

I think not picking draws is the best way long-term. Math and my records bear that out clearly in the extreme. Your results may vary.


More intel on MLS DRAWS: KC leads MLS with 68 ties all time. Most of those being a product of Bob Ganslers' teams. Onolfo's philosophy, by contrast believes in winning or losing by accepting risk and attacking late. Next high is NE with 60. Dallas is the leader this season with 2 in 2 games.

High percentages of DRAW within a series are DAL/CHV, CLB/CHI, DC/CHI, KC@COL, NE/CLB, KC/NY, RSL v NY has 5 draws on just 6 games.

MLS in '08 is on a 23% pace of draws. You need 4.33 for 1 odds on DRAW to make that break even long term.

As a money management tip, if you could find those odds on DRAW (you can't), that still only puts you even while simple investing the same money in a Bank Certificate of Deposit (one of the single worst historical investments in the history of the world, BTW) would still net you more money while eliminating all investment risk (although you would accept inflation risk willingly, but that's another lecture ).

***One of the immutable laws of money is if you consider two money alternatives and one gets the same return at less risk, you always do that first. In parallel, is if two things have the same overall risk you should always do the one with the the greater return. If two alternatives have a negative return then you should pass on both.

Obviously things are rarely ever that clean cut and betting is at some point better considered entertainment over an investment. Still, if you can keep good records, be honest with yourself, and analyze them accurately, you can incorporate the above info into your overall scheme. If you do, it will be worth real money to you in the long-term...and certainly more money is more fun, regardless.

Good decisions!

 

Good week for you. Call me WC if you must call me anything.

BTW, I've been doing this for years and you are still about 77 documented units behind on this forum, so good luck with that. 15-20 more weeks like just like this week and you'll be right there.

The forum isn't really about compettition it's about helping people. But If you feel the need for friendly head to head then post a pick for every game, as I do for the benefit of the board, and we'll see what happens. You can even post first this week sometime around Tuesday morning and Friday morning, maybe I'll learn something.

Keep posting your picks. Good to add some reasoning also, BTW. That way the board can learn form your superior talent, system, and intellect.

-WC