MLS Week 12 (incl Wed)

5.61 for Dal sounds good to me. Dal hasn't lost anybody to the Conf Cup. Just last week Chi was a big underdog vs. the depleted MetroStars.

 

SJ@LA - The case for LA - Winners of two straight, they receive calls at home, will have El Flopidito available as MLS is gutless in their consistency of suspensions, and they are a rediculous 17-8-2 v SJ all-time.
The case against draw - None, only 2 draws in 27 games.
The case against SJ - Look at the injury/traded/in France list. There's an entire MLS Champion on that list. Only 4 points in last 4 games; 3 of those 4 against bottom-dweller DAL. Effort and heart are great, but fatigue from travel and lack of depth wears on all, especially in your third straight road game. We all saw the chart on the raidly declining numbers of teams as they pile up consecutive road games. RULE - Never bet a team to win that is playing on the road for the third (or more) consecutive time This rule is probably 70% effective. Regarless of number, it's too much to try and buck, even if you get lucky. SJ still has talent in the lineup and rivalry games have a way of leveling paper stats. I still take LA in this one, especially at the inflated price.
LA@2.55

DAL@CHI - Chicago won on the road and DAL lost at home last Sat. The game is in Naperville, where CHI seems to enjoy a natural home-field advantage. The series is 8-8-1, so don't expect a draw. Only NE is hotter in the last 6 than CHI right now. Only dc is playing better overall than CHI. DAL's whole season has been patterned with good result, loss, result, loss. If the pattern holds they shouldn't lose this week. I'm not a big believer in patterns, trends and consistency maybe, but not patterns. I'll take Razov, Thornton, and the rabid crowd over last placed DAL. This is also a rivalry game for the "Brimstone Cup" so whatever you do, don't do it in a large way.
CHI@1.82

 

Two questions:

1. How do you know this?

2. Did they not know that those guys would be gone or didn't they think their loss would be important? I'm surprised in either case because I thought bookies knew that sort of stuff. Don't they know soccer?

 

I read that Cienfuegos got a second yellow card and won't be playing vs SJ.

 

True, about the only thing he's done this year is the assist v KC.

 

gotta take chicago at 3.75, they are on fire

 

Yeah, I have a few...

COL@DAL - Rapids have put good efforts into the last 4 games. Their only loss was LA's stadium opener. DAL has widespread problems at every position and coach. DAL seems to follow a bad game with a less poor one, but isn't great at home either. Colorado is winless on the road. To me the most important fact is the Rapids won by 3 last time out where the Burn lost by 3. 6 goal differentials don't usually get solved within a week. Good value on a team playing well.
COL@3.82

CLB@SJ - This isn't one to put down a large stake. SJ is still winning against all conventional wisdom given their unavailable list. CLB is struggling a bit of late. SJ has not won at home since beating CLB 4-3 a month ago (They lost to CHI 4-1 4 games ago in the only other home game). San Ho at home is usually a good bet and Onstad is playing suburb in net. Ekelund is coming back from injury as well. CLB of late and on the road has been a tough go.
SJ@1.9

NE@dc - If you can't tell, I'm a big believer in current form if there is a blatant disparity. NE got smoked 4-1 in Denver last time out. It wasn't nearly that close. If you need anything else, nobody has scored on dc in 3+ games. Oh, and the game is in RFK. 2.52 is a bit on the rediculous side for this one. Lock o' the week right here.
dc@2.52

CHI@KC - Ugh! I personally hate this fixture as Chi has KC's number. 12-3 all-time is CHI v KC. No draws. Last time they visited Arrowhead it was 3-2 CHI after a 2-0 KC lead. CHI has also won 7-0 with Razov, Wolff, and Novak running sprints towards goal in a July 4th game. KC is better both on offense and defense overall but has calmed slightly on both ends of late. Razov and company are just plain smokin' with 7 goals in the last week alone. Damani Ralph is the real deal. KC is short defensively as Talley was blutalized by El Dive-adito and will miss the next 4 or so. Bocanegra and Gutierrez were already out. All KC has going for it is KC is a step up from MET or DAL, Preki's bobblehead night, home pillows, and nice weather. Take the "over" here. A hot offense mixed with a short defense, add Big Zach in net (if you didn't see him throw that little metro off him like a "used towel", you should have ), history, and 3.75 you have an obvious answer. A win here pays for 3 other screw-ups. Go for the value here even against a team that plays levels up at home. I hope I lose this one.
CHI@3.75

LA@MET - I would leave this one alone as the most remarkable things in this game are negatives. LA is missing Ruiz (Nat duty/susp-what a joke, BTW), played mid-week, is winless through 8 on the road, and must go to the other coast. With Ruiz mid-week they peppered SJ's net but could only get a 1-1 draw. MET is starting 2 rookies up front, can't stop anyone, and is in general disarray. Grafer, replacing Howard in net, is worth at least a goal a game to the opposition. On that fact alone I'd take LA. It helps that 1.9 on an iffy MET team isn't enough.
LA@4.25

My "Prime 3" will be the lock o the week dc, CHI, and SJ. Careful with SJ, I only include it because it's a prime 3 and not a prime 2.

Through mid-week games I'm 21-26. That's 21-9 when avoiding the draw, BTW. In '03, I'm up overall $44 but down on the "Prime 3" -$29.40. I'll work on it. The blanket statment being that I'm hitting long shots, losing on draws, and getting money back.

Good luck.

 

I like your picks, but maybe it's time for a tie between Chi and KC.

 

Well. It's obvious I know absolutely nothing. A 1-4 weekend with teams reversing themselves by 5 and 6 goals. Quickly turning the page, on to next week.

 

My first 0-5 week. Ugh.