MLS Pre-Draft Analysis Thread

There's a lot of analysis going on from several different sources on several different boards, so I thought I'd try to unite everyone here to start really clarifying what might happen in three weeks.

How many 'underclassmen' will be signed? I have gone on record as stating that I think it will be fewer than people are expecting. I still believe that because I think MLS is wary about giving guaranteed money (P-40 deals have, I think, up to $40,000 of educational stipends and I think any underage signing requires guaranteed money of some sort), when graduated seniors get none. Clearly, the days of P-40 longshots like Ubusuku Abukusamo, Matt Nyman and Mario Longo - back when the 40 was still thought to mean something -is over.

Last year, MLS signed 6 players - all of whom were massive prospects. I expect, in this time of financial austerity that MLS will be very judicious in who they give this guaranteed money to. I am currently expecting 7 players to be signed (4 collegians and 3 U-17's). I wouldn't be surprised if it were even less, but many people with more inside info than me are predicting much more. This will obviously be a major factor in how the first-round chips fall.

No one can even come close to predicting what will happen Anyone who says they can is bs'ing. MLS teams continue to have baffling scouting. I get the sense that teams treat the second half of the first round like the second round, the second round like the sixth round and the third through sixth like monkeys throwing excrement at a player list.

One interesting story that I don't remember reported last year was the Metro's drafting Mario Gomez of the North Jersey Imperials in the fifth round. There is a player named Mario Gomez who is a sophomore standout for New Jersey City U. - assuming that this is the same person (which seems pretty likely), then Gomez wasn't even eligible for the draft last year but neither the Metros nor MLS were aware of this. They seriously need a centralized scouting bureau.

Anyway, I expect there will be several sleepers again this year (guys like Kingsley, Arnaud, Jeff Moore etc.) and several more who tumble late in the draft, or out altogether (like Fahim, Nusum, Kenny Owens, Matt Goldsmith, Beckett Hollenbach). This draft has a number of big forwards and A-Mid/Forward combo players - all of whom could be picked in the second round or not at all.

 

So I thought we could start trying to line up the first round possibilities. I will admit that I am not that good at predicting the first round (I specialize more in the late round fringe players, which I will post later), and I accept anyone's suggested alterations to these prediction.

Right now, we only know that Eskandarian is in of the youngsters. I still think that analysis can be made, even without knowing who is in - by looking at what teams might want. And also, there will be massive numbers of trades.

Here is my current first round - made with the assumption that the P-40 signings will be Eskandarian, Ricardo Clark, David Stokes and Ned Grabavoy (this last spot is up in the air to me, could also be Brian Carroll, Adolfo Gregorio, Knox Cameron etc.) from the college ranks, and Guillermo Gonzalez, Eddie Gaven and Arturo Alvarez from the U-17's. Given that:

1 DC - Eskandarian
2 MET - Clark
3 KC - Diego Walsh
4 DAL - Pat Noonan
5 MET - Grabavoy
6 SJ - Doug Warren
7 CLM - David Stokes
8 LA - Guillermo Gonzalez
9 NE - Eddie Gaven
10 LA - Mike Tranchilla

There seems to be a growing consensus for Eskandarian with the first pick. Clark would be a great fit in NJ, even if they bring in Richie Williams. Bob Bradley seems to like getting players from youth national teams, and I'm sure he has a good pipeline for information. I have KC taking Walsh at 3, although their biggest need is for a defender with Vermes apparently headed out. Unless somebody like Wingert comes out, I don't think there are defenders worthy of being selected here. Walsh could be a possible heir to Preki and maybe allow them to get rid of Gomez and save a little cap money.

Dallas has young prospects almost everywhere. It seems to me that they could use a cheaper Bobby Rhine (who has been rumored out) to ease cap concerns. Noonan is ready to step in and can hold the ball and play off a speed forward. Then I see Bradley taking another junior nat at #5 if he keeps the pick, whether its Grabavoy or someone else. If DC completes the expected trade, I'm not sure what they will look for here. I'm locked in on Warren to San Jose. Yallop is hard to predict, given his move for Luchi last year when he seemed to need defensive help. Warren is the most MLS ready GK out of college since Adin Brown, and could give them insurance or even a cheaper alternative for Cannon. Even if Cannon stays, backup Conway has never earned the confidence of Quakes fans.

Stokes (who is strongly rumored to be leaving UNC) might be a pretty good fit with Columbus. They have a pretty patchwork defense and they don't have anyone like Stokes - athletic and 6'3. Consistency is his question mark. Everyone has Gonzalez going to LA at #8. A cliche, but perhaps an apt one as #8 is about where a top U-17 should go. The Revs don't have much young projects - Gaven might be a nice fit for what is a pretty deep team. LA needs a better complimentary forward to Ruiz than guys like Albright or Moreno or Mullan. Tranchilla is unselfish and powerful and would be a nice pick-up here.

I'd be interested in seeing other ideas, including what underclassmen you think will be in the draft.

 

Well, it is far too early to make mock drafts or anything like that - I am hoping merely to spark discussion about the SuperDraft which will be useful in analyzing the picks when they happen. I think I started this thread poorly, but I hope that it can still survive.

So, there are a few more interesting concepts raised in the last two posts:

How high should U-17's be drafted? Justin Mapp kind of broke the mold last year by being picked fourth. Was that too high? Even Quaranta was picked eighth and Ed Johnson went in the second round. It's an awful long time to wait for young players to come around - DC has possibly suffered by inserting Convey and Quaranta and drafting Mapp instead of a more mature player - even though those players may be more talented than players taken before them. Good for the national team, but maybe not so much for the MLS team that undertakes the task. Are U-17's getting more or less valuable? If Gonzalez and Gaven are top guiys - where do you reckon they should go?

Specific player values - ie. Dunivant and Noonan vs. Tranchilla. I am just not as high on Dunivant as others. Although he is a consistent player with a good left foot, I think his lack of dynamic athletic ability limits his potential. I definitely see him going early in the second, but I'm not sure who I would pick him over in that hypothetical 1st round. I am also slightly favorable to Tranchilla over Noonan, but I'm not sure that that view is widely held. If Dallas is thinking similarly to what I'm thinking for them (replacing Rhine), Tranchilla or Noonan could both probably do that task.

Here's another question - how will international players fare in this year's draft? Last year it was more of an issue because there were a lot more highly regarded internationals, especially at forward. But there are some good ones this year too, such as Niall Lepper, Rob Friend, Damani Ralph, Sherif el Bialy. MLS teams seem to be becoming increasingly reticent to take collegiate internationals (Villar, Nusum, Fahim all passed over).

As for Lepper, I am skeptical given that almost no Western European players have ever been drafted by MLS. Darren Warham and Danny Jackson are the only two that quickly come to mind. I'd bet Jackson is out of the league by this time next year, and I think it is fair to question the athletics desire of any player who comes here for college from a country that has an extensive pro league. Canadian collegians have also fared poorly in the draft (Rob Friend also has interest from Moss in Norway, making his selection even less likely). A few years ago, Robbie Aristodemo was ignored (despite being a key cog in the Canadian U-23's) and went on to be the A-League Rookie of the Year. It just seems that teams are not too willing to use their developmental spots on international players.

How high should goalkeepers be chosen? If Warren is an outstanding, but not national level keeper along the lines of - for example - Kevin Hartman, where should he be picked? Yers, there are a lot of decent goalkeepers in this country - but if he is better than decent, should that merit a first-round pick? If you knew he would be on par with Hartman, Rimando or Thornton?

 

Good point Jambon - I keep forgetting about Salyer. I wonder how he stacks up with the other backs - he seems to create wildly divergent views of his talent.

That question about the number of USL or overseas players is a great one. Last year, there were very few USL players taken in the draft, and, frankly, I would like to see that number halted completely, except for 'college-age' players (under 24 say). I think its pretty odd for teams to expend picks on Jon Busch or Mike McGinty, when they've only been training with one MLS team. How does everyone decide when they should be picked (I'm assuming that there must be some pre-agreement, since McGinty said he would only play for DC)? I think those older guys should be left to the discovery option and that's it. That may be happening since the 2002 draft had far fewer older players selected. I would suggest the same method (<24 into the draft) for returning players.

Apart from Salyer, I'd think there may be a market for a few non-college guys. Vitor Moreira, a 17/18 yo Brazilian who starred for the Bradenton Academics PDL club. Aaron Thomas, the former Wake star and all ACC player who was booted for drug troubles and played for the D3 Carolina Dynamo over the summer. Maybe Paul Dolinsky, who returned from Europe to play for the Indiana Blast in the A-League. Maybe Herculez Gomez of the San Diego Gauchos, if the LA developmental claim did not carry over to next season.

 

You make some good points Jeff. I probably wouldn't take Warren that high either, however, I don't totally agree with your POV.

You can't compare TJ Hannig, a very good collegiate goalie, with Doug Warren, a stalwart of the youth national team program. Even at the 6th pick in the draft, history suggests that picks are beginning to get dicey (noting the Earthquakes whiff there last year) - and Warren is clearly the best prospect at his position. Even if he doesn't take over for 2-3 years, that's a lot better than what they got from Luchi. Nick Rimando was taken very late (for size and position reasons I'd guess), and I think quite a few teams might regret having passed on him now.

Like I said before, Warren is pretty well regarded as the premier collegiate GK prospect in several years. Adin Brown merited the third pick - although his adjustment period meant he never worked out for the 'Pids - a strike against Warren. Warren may slide a bit (especially if a lot of P-40's are signed), but I think whoever gets him will have a pretty damn good prospect that will pay off in the near future.

 

Does DC now having the #5 pick now make it more or less likely that they will take Alecko at #1? On one hand, they could now get a pretty good attacking player at #5 and might want to use #1 on a more specialized player like Ricardo Clark (if he were to sign). But I guess the reverse is true as well - they can get Esky and still fill another need (although I don't know if there will be another d-mid prospect available then).

And Jeff - your point is well taken. Who, or what type of player, would you like to see taken by the Quakes if they stay at #6. Do you have a read on Yallop at all?