COL @ LA CLB @ NE I'll take the home teams to win Game 1. COL had to travel home to Denver and then hop a plane for a trip to LA. Not good. LA should take Game 1. CLB will have had 7 full days off before Sunday's matchup with NE. That's long enough to eliminate some of the benefit of resting. NE is at home and has been unbeatable there of late. I'm certain Twellman and Ralston will not care if they played four days ago. NE takes game one. If anyone can find and post odds, it would be greatly appreciated. Please also post url/website.
My latest numbers are 66-56 up $370 for the year, betting $10 per game and taking best odds posted on the board. Uncalled ties are losses regardless of OT result.
from bet365: Los Angeles v Colorado 1.80 3.25 3.50 New England v Columbus 2.00 3.20 3.00 http://www.bet365.com/home/index.asp Been out of the MLS loop long enough that without "special odds" like last week I should probably stay away. Nonetheless, I like LA.
gamebookers (they got it right from the start this time): Los Angeles v Colorado 1.85 3.25 3.60 NE Revolution v Columbus 2.02 3.15 3.20 http://www.gamebookers.com/ They also offer exact score bets and "double chance" bets on both matches.
From internet1x2.com: Los Angeles 1.85 3.25 3.5 Colorado @New England 2.10 3.10 3.00 Columbus From intertops.com: Los Angeles 1.8 3.2 3.5 Colorado @New England 2.0 3.15 3.0 Columbus
The short answer is they're a waste of time and money. What you do is pick 2 outcomes with of course a very low pay off. For tonight's match for example, gamebookers offers 1.18 for an LA win or tie, 1.71 for a Colorado win or tie, and 1.22 for a win by either side but no tie. I'd only really consider a bet like this if, in this case, I thought Colorado had a really good chance and were given too high a price by the bookie. I like LA here so I'm certainly not going to do that. And the LA or tie payoff is just too low to bother with. For NE-COL they have the following, NE or tie 1.23 COL or tie 1.59 no tie 1.24 Again, nothing looks worth it. In a league with the parity of MLS I don't think such bets offer much. Especially considering MLS seems to have fewer ties than most leagues. Nonetheless I like to see the bookies offer more choices for MLS, even if they aren't really worth taking. By the way, any thoughts about Columbus? I feel like I should be careful betting MLS since I haven't seen any matches since June, but it seems like their multi-pronged attack should be able to put some goals past NE's defense, especially with Llamosa out. Probably a good match for the over but fonbet (the only bookie I know who consistantly offer total goal bets on MLS) have nothing for either match yet.
Yes, NE hasn't had difficulty handling anyone. Even when NE lost to Chicago, it was NE's inability to hit the frame with anything that prevented a game. I like numbers, so I have been tracking finishing stats for the regular season and playoffs. NE was far and away the best finishing team in MLS. ["Finishing" being defined in two ways: 1)percentage of shots that score and 2) percentage of shots on goal that score] Even after LA's predictable rout of Colorado, NE is still a better finishing team by either stat. Add to it that LA's goals come at garbage time and you have a stronger statement. This affects CLB in many ways. If CLB gives the slightest opportunity they will probably give up a goal to NE. NE will come at CLB, necessitating CLB to stay back to a degree. That equals less chances for CLB. Busch is a rookie in net, every minute is unchartered territory for him. Put that with the coldest group of assassins in MLS and you have a bad mix from a CLB viewpoint. NE's at home, so a 1-0 NE lead, if it happens, is bigger for many reasons. Etc. CLB is also on 8 days rest, this should only be important in a close game late, or in Game 3. If NE is up 2-0 late it may not matter in this one. Will CLB be rusty? Probably not, but you never know. Many of CLB's chances are created through dribbling and close range shots. Many of CLB's chances die quick deaths as defenders clear or GK's close space to get in the way. Simply, a higher rate of finishing than what CLB has shown so far will likely be needed to beat NE at home. If you didn't see CLB/SJ, just check the linescores. SJ peppered them, but failed to solve Busch. NE is much better offensively than SJ and has played impossibly well on defense the last month or so. CLB's only hope is to score early from a set piece and ride it out. CLB positives: Llamosa is also suspended for NE. Who covers McBride on set pieces? Mismatches flow down as the #2 guy has to step up to the #1 spot. It's similar to the effect on a pitching rotation if you lose your #1 starter. 1 v a normal 2, 2v3, 3v4, and so on. Teams lose ground on every matchup. CLB has shown ability to dribble and penetrate anyone. Confidence will be obviously high after acing the defending champs. GK Busch has been of quality sine he got up off the bench. Any team with McBride should be ready to play anywhere any time. The youth of Buddle, F. Garcia, and Martino might be the catalysts to McBride getting his ring. Maybe not this year, but soon. They are that good. Young, but scary talent.