This is only from 5 or 6 bookmakers so far: Market Averages San Jose vs Kansas City 2.56 2.95 2.47 Chicago vs New England 2.68 2.97 2.39 Highest Prices San Jose vs Kansas City 2.71 3.00 2.75 Chicago vs New England 2.90 3.10 2.60 Both home teams look good to me, though I should note that I don't know where that 2.90 comes from for Chicago. The higest prices specifically cited for Chicago so far is 2.50, which I'll also take.
Something is fishy about the SJ-KC odds. You would think that SJ would be more heavily favored because they are the home team. Perhaps the smart money is going down on KC, especially if Corrales, DeRosario, and maybe Agoos (didn't he hurt his hamstring last week?) are out.
No. They've just screwed up again. NE is also favored. Remember the thread about the lack of resources devoted to MLS?
I just grabbed SJ at 2.6 I'm going to lay off the other one. It's bad karma to bet against your team.
In case anyone wants an example of the above, last year during the first round of the playoffs (first games I believe) many bookmakers had all the home and away teams reversed. So you had 8th seeded KC favored away to 1st seeded LA! I took LA at something like 3.00, won and they paid out. So don't ever assume the bookies know something you don't when in comes to MLS. If you're posting here on Bigsoccer, you're probably better informed than the bookmakers about MLS.
You might want to check the KC forum for some other info. It really isn't that "fishy". Anyway, it's been the history of MLS for home teams to win non-final deciders. That said, of the 3 teams that have won deciding games on the road, two of them are SJ and KC. Of course KC is the road team in this one. As MLS has no history in one-off non-finals, I'll again take the home teams. I pray MLS can return to the sensibility of First-to-5 over this contrived, garbage system of playoffs. Un fortunately, if both home teams win we will definitely see the same format next year. The aguement being that the right two teams make it to LA. It's crap no matter how you cover the smell.
The dreaded draw raises it's head again. No one predicted 90 minute ties. This is what kills me in soccer betting. I have a natural inclination to not bet ties. I usually have a positive opinion on one of the two teams, or I pass.
Both games to end 0-0. 100/1. If your watching the game you`re betting on, you side with both keepers to keep clean sheets. And wayward strikers are useful too.
With 4 of the 10 play-off games ending in draws (1x0-0, 2x1-1 and 1x2-2) a 2-2 draw (15.00) for the final looks good, especially with SJ scoring and conceding (they seem to concede 2 each game). Chicago have kept 3 clean sheets in the play-offs but let in 9 goals in the two games previous. SJ scored 4 at kansas but let in 3 in LA (two of the play-off teams). So how about 4-4 at 100/1. A repeat scoreline of the final a few years ago.
A tie looks like a good bet, but i'm dubious of that many goals. Chris Armas is playing the best soccer of his career.
Obviously 4-4 is very unlikely but if you look at San Jose`s results their name seems to be on the trophy. They`ll probably let in a couple so if they are going to win they will need to score 2 or 3 in the 90, just force OT. One way to cover the bases for a draw is one unit on each score-draw, 2-2,3-3,4-4. Instead of just taking the draw at 3.20. Assume SJ will force OT at least and they won`t concede less than 2 goals but Chicago being the better team will have their share of the play and won`t lose in normal time, it should be a high scoring draw.
When it went 4-2 with 20 minutes to go I thought 4-4 was on the cards, and Chicago had a couple of chances to make it 4-4. Still, it made a fun bet anyway and got closer to being a winning bet than I`d expected.