DC United vs. Chicago 1.85 l 3.40 l 5.50 odds Team-Computer Chance-Odds Chance-Value DC United 82.55% 54.05% 34.52% $1.850 Chicago 11.28% 18.18% -61.20% $5.500 Draw 6.17% 29.41% -376.58% $3.400 CHI is suddenly unbeatable, DC has forward injury issues and is down 1-0. This in addition to dc having never even scored on Chicago in the history of MLS playoffs. CHI's problem is that this game is in dc, MLS refs give 1/3 to 1/2 goal a game to DC at home, another 1/3 to 1/2 goal a game to dc in playoff games, and I'm sure Moreno and Emilio are at least healthier if not ready this week. Obviously, do homework here. dc had no answer for Blanco without diver/pk-boy and Emilio. If still out, that should continue. With dc's forwards good to go, they are the rightful prohibitive favorite to win regulation time. This goes to pks and it's a coinflip, IMO. One that is irrelevant to the line, BTW. The model on dc has been cowardly bunkering away and often attack with reckless abandon at home. My only other problem is the price. 5.5 on Chicago seems high by at least a unit or so. Especially so if injuries persist for dc. I'm a big believer in streaks. The 3 in operation here are dc never scoring on CHI, CHI unbeaten in 9 straight, and dc having never beaten CHI in a playoff game. At some point, that's a huge mental block that exists and will come into play in late minutes if not sooner. For that reason I have to eliminate DC as a viable pick. dc should win this home game, but I have to bet streaks until they play out. I think draw is a viable choice and the math bears that out big-time. I hate picking draws so CHI it is. I'll chase the huge, huge number, with good reason to do so. I'm less comfortable with this pick is Moreno and Emilio start. CHI@5.5 SAT New England vs. New York 1.91 l 3.25 l 4.15 NE gets the odd goal, their GK is better. NE needed to bunker a bit here. They open up the offense at home. NY will be exposed as the poor road defense they have been all year. OVER looks like a certainty here. NE@1.91 Houston vs. Dallas 1.83 l 3.30 l 5.63 This, to me is the hardest pick of the week. Houton basically sweeps DAL in the regular season and Goodson scores the lone tally in DAL to send it back 0-1 in Houston. Houston has the best defense in MLS history, but couldn't contain a rapidly getting to 100% Cooper and Toja. DAL handled well, DeRo and Ching. I honestly have little idea here. When in that spot, the default is to go with the home side, especially so in Week 2 of the playoffs. In the 2 games in Houston, Dynamo won both. I don't like betting against any team with a healthy Juan Toja in it's number. I'll risk it only because the hardest thing to do in sports is beat Champions in thier own home. HOU@1.83 Chivas vs. Kansas City 1.67 l 3.30 l 6.06 Apparently Vegas didn't see the Game 1 in KC. 6.06 is an awesome number for an improving team facing one that will have grave difficultly scoring twice is a game that they must score twice. EJ played out of 3 goals just on his own last week. KC is better without Marinelli - and he's out. Morsink continues to get better and the defense isn't allowing much of anything. Chivas played a tight defensive game geared for a draw, wasn't dangerous but for a pinged bar, was contained, only had openings requiring a full-field cross that mostly wasn't executed, and still will not have Galindo or Razov more than a few useless minutes if at all. That's of paramount importance as Razov scored 3 of the 4 goals v KC and the two brilliant strikes to beat KC 2-1 in the HDC game during the regular season. As Chivas must score twice - one more goal than they have scored in their last 4 games combined - at some point they must take risk and come out of the shell. Every team that has done that this season against KC has paid for it dearly. Every single team. That situation is the blueprint for KC scoring the majority of their 40+ goals. Add to it that KC is better suited to a big field and Chivas' recent home result make up the majority of the poor side of Chivas' otherwise outstanding home record and you have umpteen reasons to chase an asinine price with KC. The argument fo Chivas is that they are home. The crowd will be vocal and that will provide a lift. i just don't see who scores for Chivas. Chivas' mids score when running off of danger. That danger hadsn't been there without the big guns. Chivas' advantage in KC if they had one was their midfield and in net. Net will not matter much as Chivas doesn't get shots. Reports have been Chivas will use two forwards unlike the one used in KC. That takes someone out of midfield, giving KC room to play everywhere. So on, and so on. In every iteration of this game I can envision (barring Burciaga tripping over the ball and gifting a goal again), Chivas has a difficult time scoring two and must do so playing to KC's strengths, not the least of which being an ability to counter and score late. KC sometimes can't hit open nets, so DRAW is a consideration. I just don't see the combo of KC making critical mistakes, KC being unable to counter late, and Chivas finding a non-exhistant offense. As that is the only way Chivas wins this series and game, I have to take KC outright and the robust number. KC@6.06
Oops, I didn't add the computer numbers for the other 3 games: Team Computer Chance Odds Chance Value Link to Best Odds New England 83.73% 52.36% 37.47% $1.910 New York 8.65% 24.10% -178.53% $4.150 Draw 7.62% 30.77% -304.05% $3.250 Team Computer Chance Odds Chance Value Link to Best Odds Houston 70.90% 54.64% 22.92% $1.830 Dallas 16.78% 17.76% -5.82% $5.630 Draw 12.32% 30.30% -145.98% $3.300 Team Computer Chance Odds Chance Value Link to Best Odds Chivas 82.36% 59.88% 27.30% $1.670 Kansas City 11.54% 16.50% -43.05% $6.060 Draw 6.10% 30.30% -396.74% $3.300 Apparently the computer does not know that Razov and Galindo are out. Chivas is a good professional team with a great coach and no forwards. 82% is a bunch of crap. Either way, the money value at least is to bet on KC.
That's 2 underdogs that have increased their leads away and then blew the lead in the game. Dallas went on to blow the series. You have to think that was always going to happen down a man for over an hour. I like the way it sets up for both KC and NE. For KC, they have the advantage of Chivas having to come forward without any forwards. For NE, they have a similar advantage as NY has questions at the back. Both NE and KC have the advantage of having watched two teams make the only mistakes that should prevent either from advancing; those being CHI blowing a big lead in the game - which NE very well could have later today - and DAL taking a red - which KC did late in the season to blow a game. The larger point is that KC probably has to take a red to not at least get to an OT. No doubt the coaches will have pointed these things out. Alvarez just must be sick to the very core of his soul. He replaces HOU's Ricardo Clark in the dungeon basement of the MLS doghouse.