MLS Playoffs: Conference Finals Week

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, Nov 4, 2007.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    So far, for this seasons playoffs, I'm 4-3 Up 2.21 units. The 3 losses were 2 draws and Dallas upsetting favored Houston at home. Since 2002, I have a slightly above .500 record in playoff games and am up just under 11 units total. I have not picked games in all years.

    To this week: Obviously Houston will be favored. NE should also have the slight odds advantage in opening lines. I'll post them when they are up.
     
  2. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    On the website I've used all year, there are no lines for this weekends' games. www.soccerway.com has no listings. If anyone has lines, please post.

    I'd probably pick HOU and CHI. To put money on either you have to know what the prices are. KC earned a draw in their visit to Houston late this season. NE is just 1-2 v CHI this year.

    I think CHI is a no-brainer at most any likely price. CHI will be the underdog and theref ore the better price. Further, CHI hasn't lost in 10 games. NE has a suspect defense and CHI plays well against any style NE has shown. NE will be favored, but value should be with CHI.

    HOU should be about 2.1:1. I'd take them down to 1.8 or so, then I'd just pass. HOU should be favored being at home in front of a huge crowd, by not by alot. KC is rolling, Houston's "roll" only happend up a man after Alvarez' ridiculously stupid red. Houston was down 0-2 through over 2 hours of soccer and had struggles in the regular season before that.

    I think Ricardo Clark is a bigger loss for HOU than Carlos Marinelli is for KC. I posted (somewhat in jest) just before the playoffs started that, "KC would beat Onstad at least once". I still believe that. If it happens early, that's KC's avenue. It well could as pros have a natural tendency to remember what just happened. For HOU, that's 4 goas in short order, with an 8 seed on tap. Overconfidence would be natural.

    I don't like any KC strategy that involves giving HOU possession or numerous shots. At any point if KC bunkers, they might get blown out. Chivas didn't have finishers fit, HOU has numerous guys.

    Draw at :90 has value, but I'd probably take HOU down to about 1.8 or so. I'd consider KC around 2.8 or so and above. I'd need some value to take the road risk. I wouldn't need much as KC dominated Dallas 2-0 - who dominated Houston pre-red - in PHP just before the playoffs.

    Good luck!
     
  3. Linus Tulagi

    Linus Tulagi Member

    Jan 5, 2006
    St. Paul, Mn
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    From Sports Bet and Win:

    Houston Dynamos 1.70 X 3.20 Kansas City Wizards 4.75
     

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