MLS Playoff Race 2007 [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Gemmell, Aug 29, 2007.

  1. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Poor Crew. They pick tonight to finally wake up out of their slumber. A shame, really. That phantom call in the KC game about a month ago really stings right now.

    Edit: One possibility, which makes me believe the Crew may not be out of it. Right now, it's entirely possible that the Crew, Chicago, KC and LA could end up in a 4 way tie for the last 2 spots .......... or 3 of them in a 3 way tie for the final spot. Without looking at the rules governing more than 2 way ties, I would say that there may be a scenario in which the Crew could get in. Of course, I'll look that up now.

    Edit my Edit: I think you may be right. The loss that the Crew suffered to LA would mean that even in a multi-team tie breaker, the Crew would be the worst. They lost the season series with the Galaxy when they lost to them a couple of weeks back. I don't see how they win any tie break scenario.
     
  2. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I don't know about the LA permutations, but in a three way tie with KC and Chicago the Crew are out ...

    Code:
         W  D  L
    CHI  4  1  1
    KCW  3  0  3
    CMB  1  1  4
    
     
  3. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rapids are currently losing the tiebreaker with KC but win the tiebreaker with Chicago. If the Rapids win their last two games by a combined 4 goals they will claim the tie breaker with KC

    I'm not sure what happens in a 3 way tie. The records would be:

    (W-D-L)
    Chi: 2-2-1
    Col: 0-4-0
    KC: 1-2-2

    Would Chicago win the tie, even though they never beat Colorado, or would it go to GD?
    EDIT: After further analysis this will only happen if all 3 teams tie for 7th, so only 1 team of the 3 would be eliminated from the playoffs.

    There's no way that the Rapids can end up in a tiebreaker with LA with a playoff spot at stake.
     
  4. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    head to head between all the teams that are tied is always the first tie breaker. it seems to me that in your scenario, Colorado would be out. Of course, i haven't checked to see if your permutations are correct. Quite frankly, Colorado has to win out, and hope that KC loses its last game. If that happens, they are in, regardless of anything else that happens.
     
  5. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, they would be in. The only way this happens is at 38 points, and drawing Chicago would put LA at 37. That meas 2 of the 3 tied teams would move on to the playoffs, so KC would be out.

    But yeah, the Rapids must win both matches, and then hope for either a KC loss or a LA-Chicago draw. There's an outside chance with just a KC draw, but that requires the Rapids to be better in the enxt two games than they've been in almost any 3 games this season, or LA losing one of the games before the Chicago one then beating Chicago, but that's really the hard way to do it.
     
  6. ChiefTalk

    ChiefTalk New Member

    Sep 11, 2007
    I understand head-to-head for a 2-way tie, but for sure is that how they do it for 3-way? I would have thought it would go goal difference then, especially if the teams don't all play each other an equal amount of times (with the Colorado scenario - not the KC, COL, CHI scenario where they do), that shouldn't be the determiner for 3-way.
     
  7. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It does kind of suck that if it were a tie for 8th Colorado would be eliminated only because of the h2h record between the other two teams.
     
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... this can't be happening update ...

    Code:
    [b]
    [U]         GP  W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG   T#  M#  SSE#[/U]
    1   DCU  29  16  6   7   55   1   58   1.9   -   -   4
    2   CDC  28  15  6   7   52   2   58   1.86  -   -   4
    3   NER  29  14  8   7   49   1   52   1.69  -   -   -
    4   HOU  28  14  8   6   48   2   54   1.71  -   -   -
    5   FCD  29  13  11  5   44   1   47   1.52  -   -   -
    6   NYR  29  12  11  6   42   1   45   1.45  -   -   -
    7   CHI  29  9   10  10  37   1   40   1.28  -   3   -
    8   KCW  29  10  12  7   37   1   40   1.28  -   3   -
    -------------------------------------------------------
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]9   CMB  29  8   11  10  34   1   37   1.17  1*  6   -[/COLOR]
    10  LAG  28  9   13  6   33   2   39   1.18  3   7   -
    11  COL  28  8   12  8   32   2   38   1.14  2   8   -
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]12  TFC  29  6   17  6   24   1   27   0.83  -   -   -
    13  RSL  28  5   14  9   24   2   30   0.86  -   -   -[/COLOR]
    
    
    * Columbus has been eliminated. See the next post.
    
      Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    
      MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR)
      T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
      M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
      SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 [/b]
    Code:
    [B]Remaining League Schedule
    
    CDC: COL, HOU
    CHI: LAG
    CMB: [USER=3840]DCU[/USER]
    COL: @CDC, RSL
    DCU: CMB
    FCD: KCW
    HOU: @RSL, @CDC
    KCW: @FCD
    LAG: NYR, @CHI
    NER: @TFC
    NYR: @LAG
    RSL: HOU, @COL
    TFC: NER
    [/B]
     
  9. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... this can't be happening update ...

    OK. I’m now reasonably convinced Columbus is eliminated. First, they lose in the KCW, CHI, CMB three-way scenario. Second, they lose in the two team scenarios - except against LA which goes to GD. (But they can't tie LA in a two-team head to head scenario. There has to be a third team in there, namely Chicago, and they come in third in that three-way.) Third, they lose in the four way if you add in LA under the following conditions:

    LA draws on Thursday and wins next Sunday.
    KC loses
    Columbus wins
    Colorado loses one of their matches and is eliminated.

    So that’d leave KCW, LAG, CHI and CMB tied for the 7th and 8th spots at 37 points. What happens then?

    Chicago – Total Games (8)
    Code:
         W D L
    KCW  2 0 1
    CMB  2 1 0
    LAG  0 0 2 (hypothetical, currently: 0-0-1)
    Columbus – Total Games (8)
    Code:
         W D L
    CHI  0 1 2
    KCW  1 0 2
    LAG  1 0 1 (To be decided on GD)
    Kansas City – Total Games (8)
    Code:
         W D L
    CMB  2 0 0
    CHI  1 0 2
    LAG  1 0 2
    Los Angeles – Total Games (6)
    Code:
         W D L
    CMB  1 0 1 (To be decided on GD)
    CHI  2 0 0 (hypothetical:, currently,: 1-0-0)
    KCW  1 1 0
    That would give you a four-way head-to-head table of:

    Code:
         W D L
    LAG  4 1 1 (hypothetical:, currently,: 3-1-1)
    CHI  4 1 3 (hypothetical:, currently,: 4-1-2)
    KCW  3 1 4
    CMB  2 1 5
    Now, I think it’s clear, however you cut it, Columbus is in last place. But how do you really deal with LA? See the problem? All the other teams have 8 games in the four-way, but LA only has 6.
     
  10. mbar

    mbar Member+

    Apr 30, 1999
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: ... this can't be happening update ...

    That's some great work there. How unbelievable is it that somehow the Galaxy win every head to head tie breaker they could be in? Unfathomable.
     
  11. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Re: ... this can't be happening update ...

    It's a conspiracy. :D
     
  12. kikkoman1231

    kikkoman1231 New Member

    Jun 2, 2005
    Comiskey Park
    Re: ... this can't be happening update ...

    Colorado wins 2-1 over Chivas with a late match-winner from Omar Cummings.
     
  13. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... the last week of the season will now be insane update ...

    Code:
    [b]
    [U]         GP  W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG   T#  M#  SSE#[/U]
    1   DCU  29  16  6   7   55   1   58   1.9   -   -   4
    2   CDC  29  15  7   7   52   1   55   1.79  -   -   1*
    3   NER  29  14  8   7   49   1   52   1.69  -   -   -
    4   HOU  28  14  8   6   48   2   54   1.71  -   -   -
    5   FCD  29  13  11  5   44   1   47   1.52  -   -   -
    6   NYR  29  12  11  6   42   1   45   1.45  -   -   -
    7   CHI  29  9   10  10  37   1   40   1.28  -   3   -
    8   KCW  29  10  12  7   37   1   40   1.28  -   3   -
    -------------------------------------------------------
    9   COL  29  9   12  8   35   1   38   1.21  2   5   -
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]10  CMB  29  8   11  10  34   1   37   1.17  1^  6   -[/COLOR]
    11  LAG  28  9   13  6   33   2   39   1.18  3   7   -
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]12  TFC  29  6   17  6   24   1   27   0.83  -   -   -
    13  RSL  28  5   14  9   24   2   30   0.86  -   -   -[/COLOR]
    
    * DC United clinches the SS. At best Chivas can tie 
      DC United's current 55 points, but DC United owns 
      the head-to-head tiebreaker.
    
    ^ Columbus has been [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12979243&postcount=134"]eliminated[/URL].
    
      Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    
      MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR)
      T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
      M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
      SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 [/b]
    Code:
    [B]Remaining League Schedule
    
    CDC: HOU
    CHI: LAG
    CMB: [USER=3840]DCU[/USER]
    COL: RSL
    DCU: CMB
    FCD: KCW
    HOU: @RSL, @CDC
    KCW: @FCD
    LAG: NYR, @CHI
    NER: @TFC
    NYR: @LAG
    RSL: HOU, @COL
    TFC: NER
    [/B]
     
  14. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rapids playoff scenarios:

    A Rapids win vs FSL and one of the following:

    LA and Chicago draw
    OR
    LA doesn't beat RBNY and then beats Chicago
    OR
    KC loses to Dallas
    OR
    KC draws Dallas, the Rapids beat FSL by 3
    OR
    KC draws Dallas, the Rapids beat FSL by 2, and score 15 goals in the process
     
  15. harttbeat

    harttbeat Member

    Dec 29, 1998
    New York
    how cool would it be if LA gets the 7th seed and plays Chivas in the first round.
     
  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    And if they get the 8th seed they play DC - so it'd be a classic series either way.
     
  17. ChiefTalk

    ChiefTalk New Member

    Sep 11, 2007
    If you think the last scenario is ridiculous, In 1978, Borussia Monchengladbach won 12-0 over Borussia Dortmund on the final day of the season in an effort to make up the required goal difference, only for FC Cologne to prevail via 5-0 win over St. Pauli. One of my favorite Soccer Made in Germany memories.

    Of course the games were played simultaneously. Last night with those 3 games going on it was kind of like that. Hard to do that here on the final weekend with time zones, stadium issues and backloaded Galaxy-Beckham schedule issues.
     
  18. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are they guaranteed to play in the Eastern Conference if they get the 8th spot? i would think if KC wins next week, they could finish ahead of LAG and LA would play in the Western Conference playoffs. It also might be possible for Chicago to take the 7th spot with a draw on Sunday and LA to take the 8th, as long as Colorado doesn't win and KC loses.

    Besides, I think LA v Chivas woud be a bigger deal considering the close proximity and budding rivalry.
     
  19. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    If Colorado AND the Galaxy both qualify, then and only then will the lower ranked team play DC.
     
  20. EdsonArantes

    EdsonArantes Member

    Apr 6, 2006
    Barra Brava
    Only way DC plays LA in the first round is if both Colorado and LA make it and Chicago and KC don't. I don't see that happening...I don't know all the permutations, but of the four teams still fighting (Colorado, LA, Chi, KC) I think it will be either one team from the West and one from the East, OR two from the east (KC and Chi).
     
  21. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    BTW, I have to say that the race for the last few spots, and particularly the Galaxy's improbably 5-game winning streak, has been pretty fun to follow. It's like a perfect storm, where everything has been falling into place the last few weeks for this to happen. And until I read CBus was eliminated I was thinking there would be five teams with a legitimate shot at the last two spots. Four is still pretty impressive. And playoff order is also still up for grabs in terms of home field in the West (Houston/Chivas), and which teams will be playing in which conferences.

    Is it too early to say that the much maligned playoff system this year is actually pretty cool, even if it lets in over 60% of the teams? ;)
     
  22. joamiq

    joamiq New Member

    Feb 14, 2006
    DC
    Hm, OK. So, if Chicago loses to LA, KC loses to Dallas, Colorado loses to RSL, and LA ties NY and beats Chicago, you'd have a three-way tie between Chicago, LA, and KC for the final two playoff spots. Who loses out there?
     
  23. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Kansas City stays home.
     
  24. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    KC also stays home if Chicago, Colorado, and KC tie (Possible if LA doesn't beat NY, LA and Chicago draw, KC and FCD draw, and Colorado beats FSL).

    The Rapids win the head to head with LA and Chicago, lose to KC (LA and Colorado can only tie for 9th so it doesn't matter).

    LA wins the tiebreaker with KC, and wins with Chicago if they don't lose to them in the final game

    Chicago wins the tiebreaker with KC
     
  25. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And for the other teams:

    KC playoff scenarios

    KC win @ FCD = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    [edited to add:] KC draw @ FCD, and either Colorado lose, tie or win vs. RSL by no more than 2 goals, or LA lose or draw vs. NYRB = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    KC lose @ FCD, but both Colorado either lose or draw vs. RSL, and LAG either lose vs. NYRB, or @ Chi, or tie both matches = guaranteed playoff appearance

    +++++++++

    LA playoff scenarios

    LA win vs. NYRB, and win @ Chi = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    LA draw vs. NYRB, and win @ Chi, and either Colorado lose or draw vs RSL, or KC lose @ FCD = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    LA win vs. NYRB, & draw @ Chi, and both Colorado lose or draw vs. RSL, and KC lose @ FCD = guaranteed playoff appearance

    ++++++++

    CHI playoff scenarios

    CHI win vs. LA = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    CHI draw vs. LA, and either Colorado lose or draw vs. RSL, or KC lose or draw @ FCD = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    CHI lose vs. LA, but LA lose vs. NYRB, and either Colorado lose or draw vs. RSL, or KC lose @ FCD = guaranteed playoff appearance

    or

    CHI lose vs. LA, but both Colorado lose or draw vs. RSL, and KC lose @ FCD = guaranteed playoff appearance

    ++++++++

    Feel free to correct me if I got something wrong.
     

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