MLS Playoff Race 2007 [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Gemmell, Aug 29, 2007.

  1. FlapJack

    FlapJack Member+

    Mar 3, 2006
    Los Angeles
    Where's all the posts about Columbus and Chicago anyway? (That's why I came to this damn thread in the first place - not to talk about the Galaxy's non-existant chances.)
     
  2. THOMA GOL

    THOMA GOL BigSoccer Supporter

    Yokohama F-Marinos
    Jul 16, 1999
    Paradise of the Pacific
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In a nutshell, the rest of the Crew are going to have to bring it like Eddie Gaven has in the past couple of weeks. With Guille out still the team is going to have to find ways to be a bit more creative in their play and less predictable i.e. long passes in the air. The team seems more dangerous when they "keep the ball rolling".
     
  3. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    LA is out of it. They are not/not going to peel off a 7 game win streak to close the season. (Which means they'd have to get more wins in their next 6 than they have in 25 so far).

    And this season you do have the be relatively decent to get a playoff berth, it's just that two of the teams involved in the race made their roster improvements mid-season. Anything less than running the table puts the Gals at no more than 34, and Chicago or Columbus will beat that.
     
  4. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    yes, it is a long shot (or perhaps even beyond a long shot) for LA, as either Chicago and Columbus could (relatively easily) keep them out (if LA doesn't keep themselves out of the playoffs).

    but i think the "LA is out of it" idea is still a bit premature. I'd give it another week, and if they don't have 27 points by Oct 1, then I'd say they're done.

    6 more wins for LA seems tough. but their next two opponents aren't looking that strong: KC has 7 points from 8 games in Aug/Sep, CLB has 6 points from 8 games in Aug/Sep.

    If LA ever had the opportunity to go on the road for a pair of games to get much needed victories, I'd say this Thurs/Sun combo actually seems like a favorable one. of course LAG only have 8 points from 12 MLS games in Aug/Sep to this point, so they don't show many signs of being able to get the needed results.

    they'd need to deliver on the field, but if they can get their win streak up to 3 by Oct 1, I don't see why they couldn't extend that to 7 and get to 39 points and sneak into the playoffs.

    now, i only give this scenario about a 3-5% chance of happening, but I do think LA could get some good results this week and they shouldn't be pronounced "done" for 2007 just yet.

    whatever the results, I'm thinking 39 points (or maybe 40 points) should be enough for an MLS team to grab the last playoff spot in 2007.

    and looking at the Fire's and Crew's remaining schedules, it may be as low as 36-38 points that could be enough to grab the final playoff spot.

    i do agree with that, and if LA can get enough results and points over their final 7-8 games (about a quarter of their season) to where they would qualify for the post-season, then LA would rank as a "relatively decent" team, given their hypothetical strong finish to the season. but certainly there are other more "relatively decent" teams in MLS that could keep them out of the playoffs.
     
  5. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I predict Chicago gets it with 38, with Colorado at 35 and the Crew at 34.
     
  6. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    Where would KC end up in your prediction?

    in theory, they could be stuck on 36 or only get to 37 (which would make them head out West for the first round -- assuming Chicago passes them).

    of course, all KC has to do is defeat LA on Thursday, and they'd be up to 39 points with three games remaining (so they could also get the 3rd or even 2nd seed in the East -- if NE hits a rough patch).

    the "race" is still wide open with 4 weeks left in the season.

    but overall "38" seems like a reasonable total for the 8th place team at the end of the season. i'd find some humor in LA getting to 37 points and just missing out.
     
  7. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    40 points - 7th place
     
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    On a whim I decided to project the end of season standings from the current PPG averages.

    Code:
              PTS  GR  PPG    Projected PTS
    1   DCU   50   4   1.92   57.69
    2   CDC   47   5   1.88   56.4
    3   NER   46   4   1.77   53.08
    4   HOU   45   4   1.73   51.92
    5   FCD   40   4   1.54   46.15
    6   NYR   38   4   1.46   43.85
    7   KCW   36   4   1.38   41.54
    8   CHI   32   4   1.23   36.92
    9   CMB   31   4   1.19   35.77
    10  COL   29   4   1.12   33.46
    11  RSL   23   4   0.88   26.54
    12  LAG   21   6   0.88   26.25
    13  TFC   21   5   0.84   25.2
    
    Projected Points = Current Points + (PPG * GR)
    
    The question is really which teams measured against their PPG average will under-perform and which will over-perform?
     
  9. Hierarchyfive

    Hierarchyfive Member

    Sep 17, 2005
    Portland
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I find all this very interesting not only for the playoffs but also for the 2008 Superliga.

    Right now DC, and Houston will make back to back appearances.

    It is also important to note that SUM will not lose the all important Los Angeles market next year as Chivas USA will be in it. I think this will be the most interesting thing to watch in next years Superliga and how their fanbase reacts to meaningful games vs. mexican opposition. (Chivas USA vs Chivas?)

    The only one I am worried about is the Revolution. Don't get me wrong they are a great team but their FO hasn't exactly proven very interested with international competitions.

    It is a shame that Chicago was so miserable early in the year as their current team and Blanco really would draw huge audiences in the Superliga.
     
  10. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A Chivas USA vs Chivas Superliga game would be beyond awesome. It would be off the awesomeness scale. They might need to have that game at the LA Coliseum or somewhere else that holds a ton of people.

    The Revs are in the US Open Cup final this year, a competition they normally haven't done well in, so they just might be changing in regards to extracurricular tournaments.
     
  11. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Thursday update ...
    Code:
              GP   W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG    T#  M#  SSE#
    1   DCU   26   15  6   5   50   4   62   1.92   -   -   13
    2   CDC   25   14  6   5   47   5   62   1.88   -   -   13
    3   NER   26   13  6   7   46   4   58   1.77   -   -   9
    4   HOU   26   13  7   6   45   4   57   1.73   -   -   8
    5   FCD   26   12  10  4   40   4   52   1.54   -   4   3
    6   NYR   26   11  10  5   38   4   50   1.46   -   6   1
    7   KCW   27   10  11  6   36   3   45   1.33   14  8   -
    8   CHI   26   8   10  8   32   4   44   1.23   13  12  -
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    9   CMB   26   7   9   10  31   4   43   1.19   12  13  -
    10  COL   26   7   11  8   29   4   41   1.12   10  15  -
    11  LAG   25   6   13  6   24   5   39   0.96   8   20  -
    12  RSL   26   5   13  8   23   4   35   0.88   4   21  -
    13  TFC   25   5   14  6   21   5   36   0.84   5   23  -
    
    MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR)
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
    M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
    LA's jumps up in the standings with a win -- which also means their T# stands pat at 8.

    And KC's playoff hopes just became a lot more precarious. (Even though above the playoff line tragic numbers don't really make sense to me, I added in a few to underline just how closely compacted the middle of the table actually is.)
     
  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Saturday Update ...
    Code:
              GP   W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG   T#  M#  SSE#
    1   DCU   27   16  6   5   53   3   62   1.96  -   -   10
    2   NER   27   14  6   7   49   3   58   1.81  -   -   6
    3   CDC   26   14  6   6   48   4   60   1.85  -   -   8
    4   HOU   26   13  7   6   45   4   57   1.73  -   -   5
    5   FCD   26   12  10  4   40   4   52   1.54  -   4   -
    6   NYR   27   11  10  6   39   3   48   1.44  -   5   -
    7   KCW   27   10  11  6   36   3   45   1.33  -   8   -
    8   CHI   27   8   10  9   33   3   42   1.22  10  11  -
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    9   CMB   26   7   9   10  31   4   43   1.19  11  13  -
    10  COL   27   7   12  8   29   3   38   1.07  6   15  -
    11  LAG   25   6   13  6   24   5   39   0.96  7   20  -
    12  RSL   27   5   13  9   24   3   33   0.89  -*  -   -
    13  TFC   26   5   15  6   21   4   33   0.81  -*  -   -
    
    * Technically RSL and TFC have Tragic Numbers of 1, which normally 
    means one point gained by the 8th place team or one point lost by RSL 
    or TFC would eliminate them from the playoffs. That's because right now 
    their MPP is 33, which is equal to the current 8th point total. However, 
    Chicago, the current 8th place team, wins the tie breaker against both 
    TFC and RSL. Therefore even without the extra point, RSL and TFC 
    have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    
    MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR)
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
    M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
    And I added in Chicago's T# (usual disclaimer) because, at the moment, it's actually lower than the Crew's. It's really neck and neck for that spot. On that note, Colorado really hurt themselves this week with the loss.
     
  13. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    FYP. Sanneh at attacking mid, really Clavijo? :mad:
     
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    You know what I always say: The ways of Fernando are an enigma.

    And you jerks should have kept that as your tagline. :mad: :p
     
  15. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    There's a mistake above. TFC isn't technically 100% dead yet. Just mostly dead.

    1. Chicago and TFC are actually drawn in their season series at 1-1-1. MLS does not break that tie by going to series goals (which Chicago leads). It goes instead to goal differential, which Chicago leads, but which isn't final until the end of the season.

    2. In a three-way 33 point scenario between Chicago, TFC and RSL you get the following head-to-head table:

    Code:
          W   D   L
    CHI   2   2   1
    TFC   2   2   1
    RSL   0   2   2
    
    That tie as well would go to goal differential which isn't yet final. So TFC isn't completely dead (like RSL). Though they may as well be.
     
  16. Spurs7

    Spurs7 New Member

    Jul 25, 2005
    So all they need is TRUE LOVE for them to stay alive?
     
  17. jbgeach

    jbgeach Member

    Apr 5, 2005
    Chattanooga, TN
    LAG now with 27 points, tragic number at 7. LAG has 4 games remaining including one against Chicago. Chicago's other two games are against DCU and The revs. I still think LA has a legitimate shot to catch up. However, the loss and tie to RSL will come back to haunt.
     
  18. SixKick

    SixKick Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 13, 2000
    Chicago
    Club:
    Club América
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    While true love is the greatest thing in the world, RSL needs to blave.
     
  19. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    The All Hell Breaks Loose Update
    Code:
              GP   W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG   T#  M#  SSE#
    1   DCU   27   16  6   5   53   3   62   1.96  -   -   10
    2   NER   27   14  6   7   49   3   58   1.81  -   -   6
    3   HOU   27   14  7   6   48   3   57   1.78  -   -   5
    4   CDC   26   14  6   6   48   4   60   1.85  -   -   8
    5   FCD   27   12  11  4   40   3   49   1.48  -   1   -
    6   NYR   27   11  10  6   39   3   48   1.44  -   2   -
    7   KCW   27   10  11  6   36   3   45   1.33  -   5   -
    8   CHI   27   8   10  9   33   3   42   1.22  10  8   -
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    9   CMB   27   7   10  10  31   3   40   1.15  8   10  -
    10  COL   27   7   12  8   29   3   38   1.07  6   12  -
    11  LAG   26   7   13  6   27   4   39   1.04  7   14  -
    12  RSL   27   5   13  9   24   3   33   0.89  1*  17  -
    13  TFC   26   5   15  6   21   4   33   0.81  1^  20  -
    
    * RSL has been eliminated from the playoffs because if they draw 
    Chicago at 33 points for 8th place (the best they can hope for) 
    then Chicago gets the nod because they own the tie-breaker. 
    If there is a three-way tie at 33 points between RSL, TFC and 
    Chicago, then RSL loses in the head to head too ([URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12872479&postcount=65"]see  the table here[/URL]).
    
    ^ Technically (very technically - not even true love can save them) 
    TFC is still in the playoff race. See the explanation [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12872479&postcount=65"]here[/URL].
    
    Note: The Galaxy's Tragic Number is better than Colorado's because 
    of their game in hand. Houston and Chivas are tied at 48 but Houston
    wins the head-to-head tiebreaker.
    

    Code:
    Remaining League Games
    
    CDC: @RSL, @FCD, COL, HOU
    CHI: NER, [USER=3840]DCU[/USER], LAG
    CMB: FCD, @NER, [USER=3840]DCU[/USER]
    COL: TFC, @CDC, RSL
    DCU: @KCW, CHI, CMB
    FCD: @CMB, CDC, KCW
    HOU: LAG, @RSL, @CDC
    KCW: DCU, @NYR, @FCD
    LAG: @HOU, TFC, NYR, @CHI
    NER: @CHI, CMB, @TFC
    NYR: TFC, KCW, @LAG
    RSL: CDC, HOU, @COL
    TFC: @NYR, @COL, @LAG, NER
     
  20. FlapJack

    FlapJack Member+

    Mar 3, 2006
    Los Angeles
    Liar!
     
  21. SixKick

    SixKick Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 13, 2000
    Chicago
    Club:
    Club América
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    Go away, witch!
     
  22. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Do you think the L.A. Galaxy will make the playoffs?

    It'll take a miracle.
     
  23. FlapJack

    FlapJack Member+

    Mar 3, 2006
    Los Angeles
    FlapJack: The Galaxy won again ... doesn't that make you happy?
    TrickHog: Yallop's brains, Tudela's skill, and Harden's strength against 11 men, and you think a little winning streak is supposed to make me happy???
     
  24. FlapJack

    FlapJack Member+

    Mar 3, 2006
    Los Angeles
    Pavon: That's a miracle pill?
    Lalas: The chocolate coating makes it go down easier. But you have to wait fifteen minutes for full potency. And you shouldn't go in swimming after, for at least, what?
    Frank: An hour.
    ...

    Vagenas: Pavon, I don't think brown thing Lalas is giving you is a miracle pill.
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Code:
              GP   W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG    T#   M#  SSE#
    1   DCU   28   16  6   6   54   2   60   1.93   -    -   7
    2   NER   27   14  6   7   49   3   58   1.81   -    -   5
    3   CDC   26   14  6   6   48   4   60   1.85   -    -   7
    4   HOU   27   14  7   6   48   3   57   1.78   -    -   4
    5   FCD   27   12  11  4   40   3   49   1.48   -    1   -
    6   NYR   28   11  11  6   39   2   45   1.39   -    2   -
    7   KCW   28   10  11  7   37   2   43   1.32   -    4   -
    8   CHI   27   8   10  9   33   3   42   1.22   10   8   -
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    9   CMB   27   7   10  10  31   3   40   1.15   8    10  -
    10  COL   27   7   12  8   29   3   38   1.07   6    12  -
    11  LAG   26   7   13  6   27   4   39   1.04   7    14  -
    12  RSL   27   5   13  9   24   3   33   0.89   1*   17  -
    13  TFC   27   6   15  6   24   3   33   0.89   1^   17  -
    
    * [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12875515&postcount=69"]Eliminated.[/URL]
    ^ [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12872479&postcount=65"]Technically not eliminated.[/URL].
    

    Code:
    Remaining League Games
    
    CDC: @RSL, @FCD, COL, HOU
    CHI: NER, [USER=3840]DCU[/USER], LAG
    CMB: FCD, @NER, [USER=3840]DCU[/USER]
    COL: TFC, @CDC, RSL
    DCU: CHI, CMB
    FCD: @CMB, CDC, KCW
    HOU: LAG, @RSL, @CDC
    KCW: @NYR, @FCD
    LAG: @HOU, TFC, NYR, @CHI
    NER: @CHI, CMB, @TFC
    NYR: KCW, @LAG
    RSL: CDC, HOU, @COL
    TFC: @COL, @LAG, NER
     

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