MLS Playoff Race: 10 September [R]

HalaMadrid · Sep 10, 2002

<html><body><table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" colspan="9" bgcolor="#330099"><div align="center"><big><big><big>MLS PLAYOFF RACE</big></big></big> </div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>TEAM </big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>GP </big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>W</big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>T</big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>L </big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>GD </big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><div align="left"><big>PTS</big></div></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><big>PM#</big> </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff6600"><big> GAMES LEFT</big></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" colspan="9">SUPPORTERS SHIELD RACE </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#3366ff"><big>San Jose</big> <big>(W)</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">14 </td><td valign="top">3 </td><td valign="top">9 </td><td valign="top">+12 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#009900"><big>45</big></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#cc66cc">Q [7] </td><td valign="top">@LA, vLA </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ffcc33"><big>Los Angeles</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">14 </td><td valign="top">3 </td><td valign="top">9 </td><td valign="top">+9 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#009900"><big>45</big> </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#cc66cc">Q </td><td valign="top">vSJ, @SJ </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" colspan="9">PLAYOFF RACE </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#cc0000"><big>Dallas</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">11 </td><td valign="top">7 </td><td valign="top">8 </td><td valign="top">+1<big> </big></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ffff00"><big>40</big></td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#cc66cc">Q </td><td valign="top">vNE, @DC </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#006600"><big>Colorado</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">12 </td><td valign="top">3 </td><td valign="top">11 </td><td valign="top">-6 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="yellow"><big>39</big> </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#cc66cc">Q </td><td valign="top">@KC, vKC </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff0000"><big>Metrostars (E)</big> </td><td valign="top">25 </td><td valign="top">11 </td><td valign="top">2 </td><td valign="top">12 </td><td valign="top">-1 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ffff00"><big>35</big> </td><td valign="top">3 [7] </td><td valign="top">vDC, DC, @NE </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ffff00"><big>Columbus</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">10 </td><td valign="top">5 </td><td valign="top">11 </td><td valign="top">0 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ffff00"><big>35</big></td><td valign="top">3 </td><td valign="top">@CHI, vCHI </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#3333ff"><big>Kansas City</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">9 </td><td valign="top">8 </td><td valign="top">9 </td><td valign="top">-7 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ffff00"><big>35</big> </td><td valign="top">3 </td><td valign="top">vCOL, @COL </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="red"><big>Chicago</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">10 </td><td valign="top">4 </td><td valign="top">12 </td><td valign="top">+6 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="yellow"><big>34</big> </td><td valign="top">4 </td><td valign="top">vCLB, @CLB </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" colspan="9">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#000066"><big>New England</big> </td><td valign="top">26 </td><td valign="top">10 </td><td valign="top">2 </td><td valign="top">14 </td><td valign="top">-7 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="#ff0000"><big>32</big> </td><td valign="top">9 </td><td valign="top">@DAL, vMET </td></tr><tr><td valign="top" bgcolor="#000000"><big>DC United</big> </td><td valign="top">25 </td><td valign="top">7 </td><td valign="top">5 </td><td valign="top">13 </td><td valign="top">-10 </td><td valign="top" bgcolor="red"><big>26</big> </td><td valign="top">- </td><td valign="top">@MET, vMET, vDAL </td></tr></tbody></table> KEY (W) or (E): Division Leader PM#: Magic Number to secure Playoff Spot (gained or 9th place lost)[Conference in Brackets] SSF: Schedule Strength Factor (avg pts of all opponents) TIEBREAKERS 1) Head-to-Head 2) Goal Differential 3) Total Goals 4) Rules #1-3 (Road Games) 5) Rules #1-3 (Home Games) 6) Fewest Disciplinary Points 7) Coin Toss CURRENT PLAYOFF MATCHUPS (1) San Jose v Chicago (8) (2) Metrostars v Kansas City (7) (3) Los Angeles v Columbus (6) (4) Dallas v Colorado (5) TEAMS STILL INVOLVED IN US OPEN CUP Los Angeles (Final) Columbus, Kansas City (Semifinals) </body></html>

Rocket · Sep 10, 2002

Thanks for providing the table, Hala.

The table has a couple errors in it, though. Dallas is no longer in the Supporter's Shield race, and the magic number for SJ to win the conference is 4, not 6.

HalaMadrid · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by vw
The table has a couple errors in it, though. Dallas is no longer in the Supporter's Shield race, and the magic number for SJ to win the conference is 4, not 6.
Click to expand...

Actually, SJ holds the tiebreaker, right? Then the magic number ought to be 3, yes?

ElJefe · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by vw
Thanks for providing the table, Hala.

The table has a couple errors in it, though. Dallas is no longer in the Supporter's Shield race, and the magic number for SJ to win the conference is 4, not 6.
Click to expand...

Incorrect. It should be 7.

If it were only 4, then that would mean that San Jose could clinch the West by beating LA this weekend. (Their 3 points + LA's 3 lost points = 6 points > 4 points.)

However, a magic number of six is also wrong because it only clinches a tie for the division. Ergo, it should be seven, since that's one more than the maximum number of points that LA can get.

ElJefe · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by HalaMadrid
Actually, SJ holds the tiebreaker, right? Then the magic number ought to be 3, yes?
Click to expand...

No. LA and San Jose are currently tied 1-1 in head-to-head.

AndyMead · Sep 10, 2002

You really should list a Magic Number for New England.

obie · Sep 10, 2002

To be extra picky, the magic number (as it's defined) for the division and SS for both SJ and LA is seven. Four points earned, plus three points lost by the 2nd place team. Since no one can really clinch on Saturday, a win by one team on Saturday is a six-point swing (+3 to winner, -3 to loser) but they still need one more point to clinch. Hence, the number is 7.

dark knight · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by ElJefe

Incorrect. It should be 7.

If it were only 4, then that would mean that San Jose could clinch the West by beating LA this weekend. (Their 3 points + LA's 3 lost points = 6 points > 4 points.)

However, a magic number of six is also wrong because it only clinches a tie for the division. Ergo, it should be seven, since that's one more than the maximum number of points that LA can get.
Click to expand...

I guess you're right, but maybe it should be nine, because if they get their 4 points, LA has to give up 5 points.

obie · Sep 10, 2002

Too late, Jefe beat me to it.

ElJefe · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by AndyMead
You really should list a Magic Number for New England.
Click to expand...

9.

ElJefe · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by dark knight
I guess you're right, but maybe it should be nine, because if they get their 4 points, LA has to give up 5 points.
Click to expand...

True. But that's only because it's a head-to-head meeting.

In terms of pure mathematics, the magic number is (the maximum number of points that are possible for your competitor to reach) - (your current number of points) + 1

The "+1" is for an outright clinch, without any sort of tiebreakers coming into play.

ThreeApples · Sep 10, 2002

The magic number is just a mathematical wank when you're discussing two teams that are even on points and playing each other.

It's easier to say, "The team that gets the most points wins. If the points are even, San Jose wins, unless LA outscores them by two goals or more."

ElJefe · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by Noah Elliott
The magic number is just a mathematical wank when you're discussing two teams that are even on points and playing each other.

It's easier to say, "The team that gets the most points wins. If the points are even, San Jose wins, unless LA outscores them by two goals or more."
Click to expand...

True.

But it's no fun.

JasonMa · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by Noah Elliott
The magic number is just a mathematical wank when you're discussing two teams that are even on points and playing each other.

It's easier to say, "The team that gets the most points wins. If the points are even, San Jose wins, unless LA outscores them by two goals or more."
Click to expand...

Three goals or more, and three goals would just force it to the 6th tiebreaker, total goals on the road.

The Cadaver · Sep 10, 2002

No - two goals. SJ right now is +3
LA scores 1, SJ goes down 1, LA up 1 so SJ is +1
La scores 2, SJ goes down 2, LA up 2 so LA is +1

Rocket · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by ElJefe

Incorrect. It should be 7.

If it were only 4, then that would mean that San Jose could clinch the West by beating LA this weekend. (Their 3 points + LA's 3 lost points = 6 points > 4 points.)

However, a magic number of six is also wrong because it only clinches a tie for the division. Ergo, it should be seven, since that's one more than the maximum number of points that LA can get.
Click to expand...

Dustin,

Hala's table since its inception has utilized a different magic number than the everyday magic number you hear referred to in baseball circles.

In Hala's table, the magic number is the number of points the team in question must earn in order to be assured of qualifying for the playoffs or winning their conference championship.

Mr Fish · Sep 10, 2002

Sad, but True

Isn't the Crew in first in the East since they have a better Goal Differential (even to -1) than the Metros?

Rocket · Sep 10, 2002

Re: Sad, but True

Originally posted by Mr Fish
Isn't the Crew in first in the East since they have a better Goal Differential (even to -1) than the Metros?
Click to expand...

The Crew are behind the MetroStars in the standings since its taken Columbus 26 games to earn 35 pts while NY/NJ has earned 35 pts in only 25 games.

HalaMadrid · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by vw

Dustin,

Hala's table since its inception has utilized a different magic number than the everyday magic number you hear referred to in baseball circles.

In Hala's table, the magic number is the number of points the team in question must earn in order to be assured of qualifying for the playoffs or winning their conference championship.
Click to expand...

No.

It's points earned by the team or lost by the team below it to assure that place. Same as everywhere else.

Rocket · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by HalaMadrid
No.

It's points earned by the team or lost by the team below it to assure that place. Same as everywhere else.
Click to expand...

OK. I stand corrected.

JasonMa · Sep 10, 2002

Originally posted by The Cadaver
No - two goals. SJ right now is +3
LA scores 1, SJ goes down 1, LA up 1 so SJ is +1
La scores 2, SJ goes down 2, LA up 2 so LA is +1
Click to expand...

Yep, you're right. My apologies.

BennyDee19 · Sep 12, 2002

All I know is that this is shaping up to be a hell of a finish. No one is mathematically out of it, if D. C. or New England can get on a roll, they could cause a big stir in the points, the next two weekends should be very exciting, some balls to wall soccer will be played becuase anything can happen.

kevbrunton · Sep 12, 2002

Interest Ending #1

Just suppose...

DC United wins their remaining 3 games, New England wins against Metros & lose to Dallas, Metros lose all 3 of their games, Chicago ties one and loses 1 in their remaining games vs. Columbus.

In that situation, Columbus would win the east on 39 points. The other 4 teams would all be tied on 35 points.

The first tie breaker is head-to-head among the tied teams. It would boil down to this...

Chicago 6-3-3 for 21 pts
DC United 5-5-2 for 17 pts
New England 5-6-1 for 16 pts
MetroStars 5-7-0 for 15 pts

Metros and New England stay home.

kevbrunton · Sep 12, 2002

Interesting Ending #2

Just suppose...

Similar to #1, DC United wins their remaining 3 games, New England wins against Metros & lose to Dallas, Metros lose all 3 of their games, Chicago loses both their remaining games vs. Columbus.

Columbus wins the East on 41 points.
Chicago stays home with only 34 points.

MetroStars, DC United and New England all finish with 35 points.

All 3 teams would have finished 4-4 in play against one another.

The next tiebreaker is goal differential across all games. Assuming something simple like all remaing games are 2-0 games, DC United and New England both wind up on -4 GD and Metros wind up -7 GD.

Chicago and Metros stay home.

lufty · Sep 12, 2002

I like this possibility better:

NE wins both games (the finale bewtix NY is for the whole enchilada... you win you advance to the playoffs as a two seed or you lose and you stay home as the number 10 seed.
Columbus and chicago split both of their games
DC wins all three of their games
NY loses all three of their games
KC losses both of their games

NE wins the east with 38 points
Columbus loses tie breaker with NE and ties for 38pts
Chicago finishes with 37 points
NEw York DC and KC all finish with 35 points

DC: 4-3-1 +1 goals
KC: 2-2-2 +0 goals
NY: 2-3-1 -1 goals

Thus The matchups would look like this:

1. SJ..............48 pts.
2. NE..............38 pts.
3. LA..............48 pts.
4. Colorado......45 pts.
5. Dallas..........40 pts.
6. Columbus.....38 pts.
7. Chicago.......37 pts.
8. DC..............35 pts.
---------------------
9. KC..............35 pts.
10.NY..............35 pts.

1st round:

(1) SJ v. DC (8)
(2) NE v. Chi (7)
(3) LA v. Clb (6)
(4) Col v. Dal (5)

The SJ series would be a blood bath since both teams fought so hard down the stretch... DC wins that though as they get hot late.

NE and Chicago... great series durting the season as neither team won a home match. NE pulls it out as they are hot at the right time

Columbus throttles LA in two as Ruiz does a dissappearing act and Buddle makes a Name for himself

Colorado finishes off Dallas in a hard fought series in a mini game.

The Semis Have Colorado Beating DC in 3 games and NE demolishing Columbus in 2 games to set up the final everyone was expecting at the begginning of the season between Colorado and NE in front of 70000 screaming Revs fans and yet again the Rapids lose in the MLS finals to the hosting team.

What a great finish to a supperb season this would be