MLS Playoff Picture 9/2

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Wizardscharter, Sep 2, 2002.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    From the top:
    SJ-IN, on 42 with CLB at home and a home and home with LA. Having blown a 10-point lead over the league, they are floundering. In thier favor, SJ is golden all year at home. SJ also took the DAL series for the tiebreaker. They will get to 45 and maybe to 48. Barring a DAL swoon they will need 7 points to win the West and the #1 seed.

    LA-IN, on 42 with a road trip to Chicago and the SJ twinbill. LA must at least win the Naperville roadie and take the SJ series to win the West. Not an easy task, especially with the hardest remaining schedule of any MLS team. Good thing they are peaking at the right time.

    DAL-IN, on 40 with home games to MET and NE. They finish DC. DAL has the best record in the league in 2002 against East opponents. They run the table and get a tie in the SJ/LA series and they get the #1 seed overall and the West title.

    COL-IN, on 39 with a KC home and home left. Even sweeping KC might not make that much difference, they might still be condemned to a 5 seed.

    KC-ALMOST IN, on 35, but could be by the time they play again @COL 9/14. KC's magic number over NE and DC is 2, as KC owns both series. Any NE loss AND a dc loss puts KC in. KC must sweep Colorado to jump ahead into the likely 5 seed. Anything less and they become spoilers.

    CLB-ALMOST IN, on 35 and leading the East. They must visit unbeaten at home SJ and finish with Chicago away then again at home. They are a point clear in the East, but have the worst schedule remaining of the East hopefulls. To get in might just require showing up. To win the East will take much more, probably winning the Chicago series and taking a point in SJ. Tough go.

    CHI-NOT IN YET, on 34 with LA at home and then the CLB series left to play. Similar to CLB visiting SJ, CHI hasn't gained a point from LA in 3 tries. Points will be hard for CHI to steal, even at home. On MET's form, likely the winner of the season ending series takes the East and the 2 seed, the loser gets a likely 7 or 8 seed. IF CHI does not improve from the KC performance, they might be sitting out the postseason.

    MET-HIGH PUCKER FACTOR, on 32 with a trip to Dallas, a 2-game series with rival dc, and a season ending trip to NE left to play. On current form, MET might be done gaining points. Road warriors all season, getting away from home might be the cure. I'm sure they hope so as MET could still be anything from East champs to playing October golf. To win the East would likely require winning 3 of 4, but could be done with just 6 points if other results go as they have all season. NE and dc will have other ideas.

    NE-MUST WIN OUT, on 29 with dc and MET at home and a trip to Dallas left to play. Anything less than 9 points from 9 spells doom for the Revs. Even with that the Rev need help. See below.

    dc-MUST WIN OUT AND GET HELP, on 26 with 4 games remaining. @NE, the MET series, and hosting Dallas to end the season. Taking 12 points of 12 and getting help from other results is a must. If dc can put aside the only undefeated opponent in MLS (the 3-wins-in-a-row curse), and win not only one road game but two, they have a chance. dc would end on 38 with a 4-0 finish. They are good at home, MET and NE have been very beatable in their own house. It could happen. If it does, dc also needs two of the following to happen: KC must not beat Colorado, CLB gaining 2 points or less, CHI gaining 3 or less, MET at least one point in thier other two games, or NE to drop a point in their remaining two games. 36 points will not be good enough barring a miracle.
  2. Th4119

    Th4119 Member

    Jul 26, 2001
    Annandale, VA
    DC United doesn't need help if they win out. Go to the DC boards and look at the threads. Because of the teams DC are so close in points (NE, NY), if we win out they can't get their maximum point values, and by virtue of winning out we would win the tiebreakers I believe.

    Good analysis though, looking forward to seeing more in Hala's upcoming thread.
  3. Frank Cunha

    Frank Cunha New Member

    Sep 17, 2001
    I follow the standings
    1.. Los Angeles 42 points [25 games
    2. San Jose 42 pts [25 games
    3. Dallas 40 pts [25 games
    4. Colorado 39 points [26 games
    5. Columbus 35 pts [25 games
    6. Kansas City 35 pts [26 games
    7. Chicago 34 pts [25 games
    8. Metrostars 32 pts [24 games
    9. New England 29 pts [25 games
    10. DC United 26 pts [24 games

    If the Metrostars don't make a coaching change I don't see theme in the playoffs. Zambrano just lost control
    Chicago is also falling on hard times.
  4. Frank Cunha

    Frank Cunha New Member

    Sep 17, 2001
    Metrostars got the tie brake with New England, I don't think they got it with DC United.
  5. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Thanks, not good enough though. I missed the MET 3-1 series tiebreaker. dc would get that.
    dc does still need other help, not much, but some. NE would still have to drop at least one other point, or dc would have to win the second tiebreaker whatever that is. KC will probably split with Colorado and CHI will probably split with CLB, putting CLB, COL, and KC through. dc needs CLB to lose in SJ, LA to win in CHI, and sweeps or ties everywhere wouldn't hurt.

    Bottom line is the 3-game curse is still undefeated, as the 4 game hoodu would be if it gets that far.
  6. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Isn't goal differential the first tie breaker?
  7. Rocket

    Rocket Member

    Aug 29, 1999
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Head-to-head competition is the first tie breaker; goal differential is the second tie breaker.
  8. Th4119

    Th4119 Member

    Jul 26, 2001
    Annandale, VA
    2nd tie-breaker is Goal Difference. I think NE and DC are both at -7 now, so assuming DC won it's last 4, the worst goal difference it could have would be -3, if all the games were 1-0 wins. By virtue of the DC loss, let's say 1-0, NE would have a -8 goal difference and need to win by a combined 5 goals in their other 2 games just to match DC for GD.

    It's complicated, but as of right now DC for all intents and purposes controls their own fate.

    Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this will happen or how realistic it is, becuase believe me I know how doubtful it is we'll win out.

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