MLS Flavors of the Week: 2022 edition

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by OWN(yewu)ED, Jan 1, 2022.

  1. twoolley

    twoolley Member+

    Jan 3, 2008
    https://fbref.com/tiny/TEJdM
     
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  2. twoolley

    twoolley Member+

    Jan 3, 2008
    Fair. I guess I mean Tolkin plays the 6 sometimes in his career, paredes plays LW sometimes. Paredes never plays the 6 and Tolkin basically never plays as LW. That is because they have some different strengths IMO.

    They will be in a lot of similar situations playing the same position often in that they both have played LWB/LB because both of their strenghts can thrive in that role. They are obviously fairly similar so I am being a bit semantic differentiating them within the context of how they play LWB. I think IndividualEleven answered in a way I agree with.
     
    Yowza repped this.
  3. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
  4. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Keaton Parks is from Dallas, and our quota is full. That's the only explanation.

    [Keaton has been living in the shadow of those FCD academy guys his entire life.]
     
  5. twoolley

    twoolley Member+

    Jan 3, 2008
    I'm sorry if this is just me being lazy and dumb :), but what are these charts trying to tell me? what is the Y axis? ELO?
     
  6. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's his Electric Light Orchestra ranking.

    Apparently he's better today than he was in January.
     
    Winoman and Mahtzo1 repped this.
  7. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    That is pretty specific. What about yesterday or two days ago?


    Sorry for the smartass remark. That's known as a dad joke and since I am a dad I can make a fool of myself....that is an inalienable right.

    I appreciate your ELO reference. Haven't thought about them for a while.
     
  8. no exit

    no exit Member

    DC United
    United States
    Nov 20, 2019
    Paredes: .24 per 90
    Tolkin: .06
     
    Yowza repped this.
  9. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was being sarcastic too.

    I've seen Parks play really well. I've just seen him make a lot of mental errors which is why I wouldn't trust him at nat level.
     
    Mahtzo1 repped this.
  10. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I have no idea how exactly the ELO process is applied to individuals, but the overall metric is based on G+.

    Not quite sure if this is the change is G+, or why we just don't have an absolute chart.
     
  11. 50/50 Ball

    50/50 Ball Member+

    Sep 6, 2006
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    @Thundering165 makes the charts.

    always remember that the stats based on Opta data are on the ball stats. Roldan had better G+ as a DM and is an off the ball monster too.

    Anyway you slice it Roldan is the answer to best American 6 or 8 in MLS and probably second best at 10 too.
     
  12. Thundering165

    Thundering165 Member+

    North Carolina FC
    United States
    May 1, 2017
    Raleigh
    #1587 Thundering165, May 13, 2022
    Last edited: May 13, 2022

    The Elo calculation here is run in two directions. Traditional Elo is between two players, as in chess. More recently it’s been used for teams, like in 538s rankings. This is an asymmetric Elo that on one side has players (at specific positions) and on the other is teams vs specific positions.

    The math behind it compares the two Elo scores and puts out a specific G+ bar to clear for the player - if their performance clears that bar then their Elo ranking improves, and if they do not it decreases. The model now also takes into account home and away as that is a major factor in MLS. As players increase in Elo, the expectations also increase; as they decrease the expectations go down.

    Here’s a little flow chart:

    [​IMG]

    The advantage of this particular measure vs a simple G+ score is that it is more sensitive to recent form, as well as opponent effects and home/away effects. In my opinion it’s a fantastic measure of form, and captures the differences between positions for really flexible players too. Roldan’s chart for example is really cool due to how many positions he plays.

    The team side is also great because it showcases teams strengths and weaknesses in defending certain positions. Red Bulls really pop here, they are fantastic at limiting their opponents regardless of position. I don't have a great public vizualization for team side yet but I will publish one soon.

    The disadvantage is that it goes a step away from G+ and less meaningful at a glance for knowing what to expect from specific players.

    It is true that G+ is at its core an on ball metric - it focuses on the increase or decrease to scoring probability by specific player actions (including mistakes). If you look in depth though it tends to find the players who really do perform the best, suggesting it measures something real and important.

    The full interactive chart can be found here: https://public.tableau.com/views/ML...en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

    That can be a little overwhelming so if you prefer you can look at individual teams here:

    https://public.tableau.com/views/ML...en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
     
  13. Boysinblue

    Boysinblue Member

    Jul 31, 2011
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I know your focus is on player ELOs but I'm curious what are the team ELOs are vs positions? IMO that's pretty interesting too
     
  14. Thundering165

    Thundering165 Member+

    North Carolina FC
    United States
    May 1, 2017
    Raleigh
    Boysinblue repped this.
  15. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Member

    Sep 27, 2014
    edcrocker repped this.
  16. comoesa

    comoesa Member+

    Aug 13, 2010
    Christen Press's armpit
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    why did that dude just stop marking djorde after their liens got broken?
     
  17. STR1

    STR1 Member+

    Atlanta United
    May 29, 2010
    McAllen, TX
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nashville starting with an all American XI line up vs Houston Dynamo. It's the first time I've seen this in MLS although it might have been done before.
     
  18. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Member

    Sep 27, 2014
  19. comoesa

    comoesa Member+

    Aug 13, 2010
    Christen Press's armpit
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Great game for Cowell. Seems the game is slowing down for him in the final third going off the highlights.
     
    TxEx and gogorath repped this.
  20. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Member

    Sep 27, 2014
    TxEx and gogorath repped this.
  21. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Member

    Sep 27, 2014
    TxEx and gogorath repped this.
  22. Dough Boy

    Dough Boy Member

    Sep 27, 2014
    TxEx and gogorath repped this.
  23. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    butters59 repped this.
  24. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
  25. DrunkOffPunch

    DrunkOffPunch Member

    United States
    Jul 14, 2020
    4 of the top 6 leading scorers are American, including the leading goal scorer.

    Top 2 G+A are American.

    Oldest of them is 25.
     
    tomásbernal, xbhaskarx, Yowza and 3 others repped this.

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