It's almost certainly going to be 3 points by next week. I don't have any hope for the Dynamo at Philly.
Week 23 results: PHI 6-0 HOU The East wins the week. The West is now 32-26-31 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 PHI 3-3-0 NER 3-2-1 NYR 3-2-2 CHI 3-2-3 MIA 3-1-3 CLT 3-1-3 ORL 2-3-2 ATL 2-1-3 MTL 2-0-5 CLB 1-3-2 CIN 1-2-2 DCU 1-0-3 TOR 0-3-2 WEST AUS 6-1-1 LAX 5-1-0 LAG 4-1-1 NSH 3-3-1 MIN 3-1-4 RSL 2-2-2 FCD 1-4-2 SEA 2-0-3 HOU 2-0-4 COR 1-3-0 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-3 SKC 1-2-4 POR 0-3-2 Week 24 fixtures: NYR v. COR SJE v. MIA ATL v. SEA NSH v. TOR
Okay so my earlier-season prediction that the West would walk away with it looks stupid now. But I'm going to double-down. Yes, they are only three points apart. Yes, the East now has a higher home PPG (1.39 to 1.35). Yes, Philadelphia single-handedly halved a double-digit goals differential. But here are the stats I'm continuing to watch: 1. The East has played 3 more home games, and its "best lineup" has already gone. The Eastern teams with 0 or 1 game left to play have an overall PPG of 1.39, while the teams with 2 or more games left to play have an overall PPG of 1.19. By contrast, the West's teams with 2 or more games in hand average 1.41 overall PPG, while their teams with 0 or 1 games in hand average 1.11 PPG. So it would take a conference-wide collapse or resurgence for the remaining Western teams to collapse. 2. This week's upcoming four matches are in no particular order SJE (1-1-1 at home) against MIA (1-1-1 away), Atlanta (2-0-1 home) against Seattle (1-0-1 away), NYRB (0-2-1 home) against COR (0-1-0 away), and Nashville (1-2-0 home) against TOR (0-2-1 away). So if we simply take the Median Modal Outcome (i.e., my best hunch), we get: San Jose ties Miami Atlanta edges Seattle Red Bulls draw Colorado Nashville beats Toronto Which means this upcoming week is a wash at best for the East. 3. Even subtracting 2020 and 2021, the West has won 13 of these inter-conference titles, the East has won 10, and the Central Division has won once. So the most naive bet, when all other information points to a tie, is that the West will narrowly win.
Week 24 results: NYR 4-5 COR SJE 0-1 MIA ATL 2-1 SEA NSH 3-4 TOR The East wins the week with 3 wins and just 1 loss. The West is now 33-26-34 overall so the East takes the lead in the season standings. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 PHI 3-3-0 NER 3-2-1 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 CLT 3-1-3 ATL 3-1-3 ORL 2-3-2 MTL 2-0-5 CLB 1-3-2 TOR 1-3-2 CIN 1-2-2 DCU 1-0-3 WEST AUS 6-1-1 LAX 5-1-0 LAG 4-1-1 NSH 3-3-2 MIN 3-1-4 COR 2-3-0 RSL 2-2-2 FCD 1-4-2 SEA 2-0-4 HOU 2-0-4 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-4 SKC 1-2-4 POR 0-3-2 Week 25 fixtures: TOR v. POR LAX v. CLT
As I predicted, the East has overtaken the West. Home PPG: 1.40 East, 1.29 West. Away PPG: 1.36 East, 1.40 West As I expected along, the East's home PPG caught up to the West's home PPG, nullifying that advantage. Couples with the East's relative away PPG advantage over the West's mediocre home PPG advantage, and here we are with the long-anticipated Eastern lead. That said, the West is still leading in goals scored.
Week 25 results: TOR 3-1 POR LAX 5-0 CLT The week is split with a win each way. The West is now 34-26-35 overall so the East maintains their lead in the season standings. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 PHI 3-3-0 NER 3-2-1 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 ATL 3-1-3 CLT 3-1-4 ORL 2-3-2 TOR 2-3-2 MTL 2-0-5 CLB 1-3-2 CIN 1-2-2 DCU 1-0-3 WEST LAX 6-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 4-1-1 NSH 3-3-2 MIN 3-1-4 COR 2-3-0 RSL 2-2-2 FCD 1-4-2 SEA 2-0-4 HOU 2-0-4 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-4 SKC 1-2-4 POR 0-3-3 Week 26 fixtures: LAX v. DCU FCD v. PHI
Week 26 results: LAX 1-0 DCU FCD 1-0 PHI The West wins the week with 2 wins. The West is now 36-26-35 overall so they retake the lead for the season. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 PHI 3-3-1 NER 3-2-1 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 ATL 3-1-3 CLT 3-1-4 ORL 2-3-2 TOR 2-3-2 MTL 2-0-5 CLB 1-3-2 CIN 1-2-2 DCU 1-0-4 WEST LAX 7-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 4-1-1 NSH 3-3-2 MIN 3-1-4 FCD 2-4-2 COR 2-3-0 RSL 2-2-2 SEA 2-0-4 HOU 2-0-4 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-4 SKC 1-2-4 POR 0-3-3 Week 27 fixtures: PHI v. COR NER v. LAG
I will be posting sporadically the next few weeks as I'm on vacation, but as I'd long predicted, the West has retaken the lead and is definitely going to stay there.
Week 27 results: PHI 6-0 COR NER 1-2 LAG The week is split with a win each way. The West is now 37-26-36 overall. There are only 13 inter-conference games left. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 PHI 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 NER 3-2-2 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 ATL 3-1-3 CLT 3-1-4 ORL 2-3-2 TOR 2-3-2 MTL 2-0-5 CLB 1-3-2 CIN 1-2-2 DCU 1-0-4 WEST LAX 7-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 5-1-1 NSH 3-3-2 MIN 3-1-4 FCD 2-4-2 COR 2-3-1 RSL 2-2-2 SEA 2-0-4 HOU 2-0-4 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-4 SKC 1-2-4 POR 0-3-3 Week 28 fixtures: ORL v. SEA TOR v. LAG POR v. ATL DCU v. COR
Week 28 results: ORL 3-2 SEA TOR 2-2 LAG POR 2-1 ATL DCU 0-0 COR The week is split with a win, a loss, and 2 draws for each conference. The West is now 38-28-37 overall. There are only 9 inter-conference games left. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 PHI 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 ORL 3-3-2 NER 3-2-2 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 ATL 3-1-4 CLT 3-1-4 TOR 2-4-2 MTL 2-0-5 CLB 1-3-2 CIN 1-2-2 DCU 1-1-4 WEST LAX 7-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 5-2-1 NSH 3-3-2 MIN 3-1-4 COR 2-4-1 FCD 2-4-2 RSL 2-2-2 HOU 2-0-4 SEA 2-0-5 POR 1-3-3 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-4 SKC 1-2-4 Week 29 fixtures: CIN v. SJE RSL v. DCU
Here's my table. I'm done guessing how it's going to go with nine matches left. Waaaaayyy too close to call.
Week 29 results: CIN 6-0 SJE RSL 0-0 DCU NOTE: I, for some reason, completely left out the HOU 2-3 MTL and COR 1-1 CLB result from week 25. I have added those games into the results and corrected the totals. The East wins the week with a win and a draw. The West is now 38-30-39 overall. There are only 5 inter-conference games left. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 PHI 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 ORL 3-3-2 NER 3-2-2 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 ATL 3-1-4 CLT 3-1-4 TOR 2-4-2 MTL 3-0-5 CIN 2-2-2 CLB 1-4-2 DCU 1-2-4 WEST LAX 7-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 5-2-1 NSH 3-3-2 MIN 3-1-4 COR 2-5-1 FCD 2-4-2 RSL 2-3-2 HOU 2-0-5 SEA 2-0-5 POR 1-3-3 VAN 1-3-4 SKC 1-2-4 SJE 1-2-5 Week 30 fixtures: HOU v. NER SKC v. DCU RSL v. CIN CLB v. POR
The West gets 2 wins on Tuesday night to re-take the lead. We'll see what happens this weekend. It looks like it is going right down to the wire.
It's definitely going to be this weekend when I update and claim I knew what I was talking about all along.
Week 30 results: HOU 3-1 NER SKC 3-0 DCU RSL 1-2 CIN CLB 1-1 POR The West wins the week with two wins and a draw against one loss. The West is now 40-31-40 overall. That's right. All even with 1 game left. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 PHI 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 ORL 3-3-2 NER 3-2-3 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 CIN 3-2-2 ATL 3-1-4 CLT 3-1-4 TOR 2-4-2 MTL 3-0-5 CLB 1-5-2 DCU 1-2-5 WEST LAX 7-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 5-2-1 NSH 3-3-2 COR 2-5-1 MIN 3-1-4 FCD 2-4-2 HOU 3-0-5 RSL 2-3-3 SKC 2-2-4 POR 1-4-3 SEA 2-0-5 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-5 Week 30 fixtures: None Week 31 fixtures: SEA v. CIN
Week 32 results: SEA 1-1 CIN The week is split with one draw. The West ends the season 40-32-40 overall. It's a tie. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Inter-conference schedule complete in Bold EAST NYC 4-3-1 PHI 4-3-1 MIA 4-1-3 ORL 3-3-2 CIN 3-3-2 NER 3-2-3 NYR 3-2-3 CHI 3-2-3 ATL 3-1-4 CLT 3-1-4 TOR 2-4-2 MTL 3-0-5 CLB 1-5-2 DCU 1-2-5 WEST LAX 7-1-0 AUS 6-1-1 LAG 5-2-1 NSH 3-3-2 COR 2-5-1 MIN 3-1-4 FCD 2-4-2 HOU 3-0-5 RSL 2-3-3 SKC 2-2-4 SEA 2-1-5 POR 1-4-3 VAN 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-5 That concludes the regular season.