MLS Cup: Pre-Game Tactical Analysis and Assumptions

I'd like this thread to be for assumptions/theories/best guesses as to how each team will approach this game tactically. This is not about game predictions (ie: who wins) or for people to dump on either of these teams by calling this the Boredom Bowl. This thread is for analysis about what tactics either team is likely to go with for this game.

I'll start off with a couple of initial thoughts:

1. I think NE will start out with much more high pressure than we've seen from them in previous MLS Cups. I don't expect them to sit back and absorb pressure. Instead, I think they'll try and play like it was a home match. That means there will likely be space in the back behind the NE backline. I think NE is going to try and force errors (especially by the Houston backline). Furthermore, I think NE has a healthy respect for the ability of DeRo and Holden to score on blasts even if you have numbers back. As a result, until they get a goal, I look for NE to defend by attacking. Nicol may still get an attack of the "it's a Cup final so we need to defend with numbers" disease but I think not in this case. He's got his full team, no suspensions, they're healthy and I think they'll resort to a lot of high pressure rather than absorbing attacks.

2. While normally you'd think that Houston would have a decided edge on the outside mid play (gimme a break: Holden or Mullan vs. Khano Smith or the rookie Wells Thompson), I think NE's strategy here is that by attacking down the flanks, it puts the Houston outside mids further down the field (b/c they get pulled into defensive duty) and thus really stimies Houston's attacking scheme of using the flanks to provide service. Furthermore, I think the best chance that Twellman has of getting a score in this match (other than off a rebound or counter) will come off of his ability to get separation on runs off the ball. So attacks down the flank (with defenders focused there) allow Twellman to get a few feet away from Robinson or another defender and give him a chance (if the service is there--and with Smith and Thompson it may not be).

3. Not sure what Nicol will do about DeRo. Does he have Laurentowicz primarily focus on him or is it Joseph? Joseph focused more on Blanco in the Eastern Finals but that was blanco (and DeRo has blown hot and cold this year). If it were me, I'd put JL on DeRo and dare Mulrooney and the outside mids to provide the necessary service with SJ gobbling up big chunks of the turf.

4. NE's zone marking on corners and restarts close in probably has Houston happy. Given their ability to score from distance, I think a man-marking approach for corners makes a lot more sense, especially given the potential height that Houston can put out there (Jaqua, Robinson--even without Ching). So I see Houston looking for ways to especially exploit this on corners.

5. Not sure how Houston will handle Ching missing. They've had to do this alot, I just haven't seen much of them when Ching was out.

6. If I were Houston, despite NE's strategy of attacking down the wings, I'd look to do that as well. Partially b/c I'd want to pull Parkhurst over to one side of the field (and the rest of the NE backline is very ordinary once you get past Parkhurst--so you want him out of the middle of the field). The second thing that I think Houston should look to do is to try and play more directly. Couple of reasons why this is so:
--it bypasses the middle of the field. As good as the central mids are for Houston, Joseph is key for NE. The fewer chances he gets to influence play with his touches or tackles, the better for Houston.
--if you can play both strikers up top (rather than one withdrawn)...there's only one Parkhurst.

7. Last of all, the referee that this match needed was Marrufo. Say what you will about him and his non-calls, the ONLY call I think he made that influenced a match was the handball call on the Gomez goal. Otherwise, it was about his non-calls. And these are two teams that will definitely play physical soccer. Not dirty (though occassionally Franchino and Robinson cross the line very violently, Heaps too for that matter). But these are both teams that don't hesitate to use their bodies off the ball, fight for every ball and pressure (rather than fall back and absorb). Jaqua and Ching (if he were to play) are physical players. Ditto for Twellman. The backlines for both teams (other than Parkhurst) are among the more physical in MLS. I'm really afraid that we're going to have a game decided by a foul call or an ejection in this match.

 

Re: Pre-Game Tactical Analysis and Assumptions

That would be me. I totally agree that Houston counts on their outside players to provide a tremendous amount of service. I also think that Nicol recognizes he can't defend in depth--not with Houston's ability to score from the outside.

Purely from a defensive perspective, NE wants Mullan and Davis/Holden to start as far back in the field as possible. And the ONLY way to insure that happens is to force them to defend. So I think NE will seek to attack down the flanks in part as an antidote to minimize Houston's strength. Here's an example of this at work that so many people never picked up on (including Eric Wynalda): in the 2006 Eastern Conference final (DCU vs. NE), in the second half, Nicol brought on Khano Smith to play outside mid. Why? B/c Freddy Adu was killing NE at that point as they pulled back to defend. And Nicol (intelligently) recognized that the best way for him to defend against Adu was to attack. By putting a fast, tall player who would go forward, it would exploit Adu's weakspots or force Nowak to shift Adu and take out either Gomez (DCU's best player in 2006) or Moreno (who has having an outstanding game) or force Nowak to sub out Adu. And Smith had EXACTLY that effect--he quickly generated offense, a bunch of chances (service and shots) b/c Adu couldn't defend against him. So Adu had to come out (and then shortly after this, Gomez cramped up). I"m not arguing Smith does the same thing against Mullan, only that Nicol has already shown that one way he handles an outside player who's hurting him is to attack against the player and try to push him further down the field. The Czechs did the same thing against us in the WC (recognizing that we wanted Convey, Lewis, DMB and Cherundolo to provide lots of service to us, they attacked down the flanks and challenged these guys sooner so they were making crosses from outside the box rather than the end line). In summary, I don't think NE expects to win by going outside or expects their outside mids to match Houston's outside play. I think Nicol hopes to neutralize Houston's outside advantage by making their guys work more on defense and start further back down the field (so they deliver fewer crosses into the box).

I agree that NE has strong play in the middle. But the nature of a 352 is to clog the middle. Particularly since for all of Mulrooney's strengths, I don't see ranging from sideline to sideline like Clark, Joseph or even Carroll are capable of. He'll stay mostly in the middle of the park. And Houston's central defenders won't be bashful either--they'll both push up. As a result, I see a very congested middle of the park.

Relevant to this, b/c of the baseball reconfiguration, the groundskeepers at RFK had laid out a field that wasn't quite accurate. Del'Apa writes about this in his ESPN piece. Although some of the errors have been improved, the Revs are convinced that offside calls are off on oneside of the field b/c of the alignment issues so this is another reason you can expect NE to try and push the ball down the flanks and for Houston to try and bypass the midfield congestion and play more directly at times.

Why do I think NE will play more aggressively this match? Several reasons:
--this is the first of their MLS Cup finals in which they've had their entire side healthy (well, to the extent Noonan is ever really healthy)
--they've played so many games in RFK that to a certain extent it will feel a bit like a homefield advantage for them. Not so much as the Del'apa article makes it sound b/c since their last game here, FIFA permanent goals have been installed and the field has been resod. But between the number of games played here (including the 2004 and 2006 ECF's) and the fans that Kraft is busing down, I think they'll feel comfortable here (more so than they would at PHP).
--perhaps some degree of intelligence on Nicol's part. Houston, better than any team in MLS, kills off a game superbly. If they go up a goal in the first half, the game is over. It's not b/c of Houston's defense (which is very good of course). It's b/c they take a 45 minute second half and through touching restarts, taking long restarts, subs, infringing on foul setups and just generally killing time in addition to their usually good defense, they're incredibly at holding a lead. Plus, with DeRo and Holden in particular, Nicol has got to realize that this is a team that can kill you from distance if you sit back. Plus I think Nicol has concluded the best way to handle the Houston outside play is to try and make them defend. Put that all together and it says that NE will come out with lots of high pressure (rather than putting 10 men behind the ball while Twellman chases balls and looks to force an error).

Last of all, while I don't see this as a defensive battle (at least in the first half), I see it as a very ugly match. Houston typically uses lots of high pressure to force errors and defends well as a team. NE likes to play high pressure at home. The combination of both teams pressuring balls plus a congested midfield will mean a lot of 50-50 balls, little time on the ball and little space (except behind the defenders).

 

Re: Pre-Game Tactical Analysis and Assumptions

I don't disagree that it could be 0-0. But the assumption some folks are making is that NE will play very conservatively. While I don't think they'll play a 1-2-7, I do think that unlike past cups, they'll attack aggressively. This means:
--lots of high pressure
--doing more than asking Twellman to chase long aimless balls
--seeking to attack down the flanks
Plus, for all of those who argue Nicol's philosophy is to defend in the final, these are all tactics (high pressure, attacking down the flanks, pushing numbers forward) that actually help the Revs defense in this instance.

 

Re: Joseph-De Rosario match up the key to MLS Cup?

I'll tell you what--I would not be surprised if it's 0-0 at half-time and each team only has 1-2 shots on goal. But that wouldn't be b/c of defensive, conservative play. Both teams pressure the ball. Unless that leads to a mistake and an easy goal (which it could), I instead think it will lead to a disjointed match without a lot of flow or beautiful soccer. That's not to complain about either team, that's just the reality of what happens when you put 2 good teams on the field who both use high pressure and deny the other team space/time. And I can see the fans of whichever loses this match saying "we didn't play very well, very disjointed match, yada, yada" when it reality that would be more of a function of errors forced by the other team.

You can sit back and keep numbers behind the ball and be reluctant to push people forward (exposing space). And that would pretty much be a description of NE in their first 3 finals. So what's different about this one?
--NE is healthy
--Houston is a very different opponent from the other teams they faced.
--the best way to defend against Houston is to attack down the wings (so Mullan and Holden/Davis find it harder to contribute offensively).

We'll see how it plays out come game time. But I think it's a bit silly to assume that just b/c Houston or NE played a particular way in the previous game that they won't make adjustments. B/c both of these coaches have shown a willingness to adapt tactically and they've done it their entire careers in MLS. Doesn't mean they'll junk what they do best or drop their leading scorer to start say....Dante Washington in a playoff match. But both of these coaches are astute tactically, their teams are smart veteran teams who b/c they've been together so long are good at making adjustments on the fly. And I think both teams have plans for how they want to expose the other team. And hanging back, committing numbers on defense and waiting for a counter doesn't seem like a fit in this case.