My brain is still mush, but no PSA this week. Remember in this thread we discuss the: (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.) This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets). The formula to find the weighted value for each column is: Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column 17869 is the max 13756 is the min 4113 is the difference To calculate the derived value for 2010 Subtract 16675 from 17869 to get 1194. Divide 1194 by 4113 then mulitply by 100* to get 29 *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read. MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
Weekly Attendance: A total of 8 matches this week, and statically one of the lowest attended weeks for the season. Only 15761 for the weekly average. This new attendance perspective is certainly interesting. We do have a pretty big week before us with twelve matches on hand. Three on Wednesday. Toronto pulls double hosting duty, hard to guess where these will fall. Columbus hosts LA on a Wednesday in their first action since the untimely and tragic passing of Kirk Urso, emotions will be running high there no doubt. Chicago and New England tangle in the NBC Fall Pilot cup.... Okay I just made that up but that would be an awesome rivalry name. Of course it would probably finish behind the other 3 major network cups. Comparison to This Point Last Season and All-Time Averages: Not much change to report here, steady as she goes as 2012 sails into the best attended season ever. AAAQ Current Season and Historical End of Season: 1 single little point is all that prevented this season from sweeping the AAAQ, just a sprinkling of 3 dozen more people per match would have done it. Oh well you can't win em all, until next week that is . MLS has completed 221 matches or 68.4% of the season, of those 221 matches, 153 have topped 15k. The standard deviation is 8124, and the median of team medians is 18526. As always until we get the table formatting see the attached text file for the goodies. Milestones: No Milestones to report this week.
The median increase seems to be flattening out at between 4 and 5%. Since the median is over 18K, projections would put next year's median over 19K. Right? That would be amazing. I think that, absent stadium expansions, we're almost at the point where following the median will be irrelevant. All that will change from year to year will be the average, as DC, NER, Chivas, Colorado, Chicago, Columbus, and FCD* try to improve. This also means that the weirdly tight coupling of median and average is about to end. Well, maybe not. I'm assuming those franchises will, collectively, improve their average. But I guess you could see some go up and some go down and the overall average be unaffected. Anyway, bottom line is that the median isn't going to be too interesting to follow in the near future, only the average. *Hope I didn't miss anyone.
I don't think that's a valid conclusion from the graphs. They are intended to help predict what this year's (2012) End Of Season values will be based upon this point in the season of years past. Note that 2012 is not even in the graph, because we have no end-of-season numbers for this year yet. The "flattening out" of the median's "trend line" above 4% means that we have reason to hope that this season's final median will be in the neighborhood of 19,098 (18364 * 1.04). However, the Median chart also shows high volatility, so the "expected range" is probably in the 1% - 5% range. I know how that graph would look (shading on either side of the trend line) but I don't really know how to make Excel draw that. However, knowing what I know about stadium capacities, and looking at the volatility, my best guess is that we should expect a final median between 18547 and 19282, with a bias towards the lower end of that range. About next year, these graphs tell us nothing, because we have no data at all yet.
Interesting attendance articles (there are 3 parts, I linked only the first one). They are specific to DC United, but many of the various issues we often discuss in the thread are examined. http://www.blackandredunited.com/2012/7/24/3173867/d-c-united-attendance-is-awful-why-part-1
Good number for Toronto. Really solid for Columbus on a weeknight. Beckham effect still in effect apparently.
The Sounders count it as a sellout because the normal capacity was sold out. Kind of a crock if you ask me because we opened the whole stadium. By my book it should not go down as a sellout. But the KC match where we sold 8k ish in group seating as a special one off should count (and does according to the Sounders)
Personally I think the sellout (and/or capacity) numbers in Seattle are a bit of crock anyway. Its real nice for the Sounders to be able to "adjust" capacity based on the game and declare they've sold 100% of tickets and have a sellout. seems like their capacity should be set at the highest number they use for a league game in a given season and calculate from there. I also think this should be true for places like New England and Chivas who reduce capacity for all but a couple of games. I know I'm in the minority on this one though.
I dunno.. It'll probably be canceled midseason... Granted Revolution might get some good numbers initially since they are doing their darnedest to advertise it as a derivative of Hunger Games.
One interesting note on the new perspective and on the complete turnaround in Kansas City: SKC last week was the highest attended game, over 20k. It would involve going through way more data than I have time for, but it would be very interesting to see how many times since 1996 that Kansas City has had the highest attendance in a week's period. I bet it's pretty low.
To be honest Beckham and Donovan weren't there. So that doesn't help. On brightside Columbus seems to be on a Upswing. Last year the Columbus averaged 12,185. This Year it is 15,074.5. That's not even the kicker. The first 5 games the Crew averaged 12,658. The last 5 games the Crew averaged 17,491. Interesting numbers in my opinion.
Depends on when the tickets were sold and whether the buyers were aware Donovan and Beckham weren't going to be there... Beckham wasn't announced until a day or two before the game and Donovan wasn't official until Sunday. Sure, a knowledgeable fan could predict Donovan wasn't going to be thanks to the Mexico friendly, but that's bound to be a minority of potential attendees.
But you can't deny the summer upswing the Crew have been on. 18197 vs Montreal 11516 vs NYRB 10479 vs Houston 11978 vs Vancouver 11120 vs Dallas 16024 vs Chicago 19674 vs RSL 17588 vs SKC 17150 vs DC 17019 vs Galaxy
UGH! Based on the last four matches though, it's turning slightly down. I'll take the current average overall though. Better than several leagues globally
I'm sure the rescheduled TFC game next week will be one of the lowest numbers of the season and then we have another home game a few days after that on the weekend. I'm a little worried about how many people will show up for the next few games.
Old and busted: arguing about what looked like more on TV when the announced attendance was 11,000. New hotness: arguing about what should or shouldn't constitute a sellout when the announced attendance was 60,000. Progress.