So this season rocks. I have zero personal time, having not really had a day off since before the DC trip. So this weeks thread starter will be like the (insert desert of your choice) which is to say barren. MLS has completed 196 matches or 60.7% of the season. Of those 196, 134 have topped 15k, the standard deviation is 7972. The median of team medians is 17633. Sadly but predictably the Wednesday follies gave us our 5th sub 10k of the year. And oh yeah it is All-Star week.
With stadium capacities being what they are is it at all probable that we will get over the 19K mark for average this year?
probably not. but you never know. when san jose gets the 18k stadium then it will be a definite yes. but the 10k number is tough to recover from.
with the number of teams in the league right now, a single team has far lower impact on the league average then your giving it credit for.
Trends for End-Of-Season projections based on past history from this point forward. Based on edwardgr 's data upload.
...especially when the team getting the new stadium has not been one to consistently sell those kinds of tickets over the last decade or so.
I figured it out when we had this same discussion last week. Assuming 19 teams and a 34 game schedule, the effect of one team going from 10K to 18K is essentially an average increase league-wide of 425.
However, even a 400 fan-per-game bump over the course of the entire season is enough to once more push the benchmark upwards. While these past three years have been noteworthy with their addition of 1000 fans per match per year, I think we all understand that that is an unsustainable trend line, and that we are reaching the point that we will be limited by stadium capacity from further growth. 400 additional fans a match would *still* be a >2% growth rate, and nothing to sneeze at. Just not as sexy as the 5-6% growth that we saw in recent years. And of course (using edwardgr's benchmarks) that will likely flip 5% of matches from below the median to above the median, and likely eliminate at least a couple more sub 10K matches, all else being equal.
Your estimated increase is flawed because San Jose is currently averaging 15229 this season and averaged 13010 last season. Also, there is no reason to believe that San Jose will sell out their new stadium as this has rarely been the case when new stadiums open. Therefore, the impact of San Jose's new stadium on the league average is likely to be closer to 200.
dont forget to include extra seating and the big games that boost the average beyond 18k. san joses fanbase should fill a 18k stadium more often than not.
I disagree with your premise. I think that demand for tickets to MLS matches is poised to explode over the next few years. And it seems perfectly logical that the owners will take steps to expand capacities if the demand is there. We have already seen the artificially reduced capacity in Seattle increased. And Toronto actually EXPANDED the stadium to better meet demand. They can't just keep increasing ticket prices. Not if they want to continue to grow the market.
I think you may be overstating the altruistic tendencies of the owners. They really are often in it for the known return on investment, and that takes priority over what the fans may want. While I agree that *eventually* sustained excess demand will prompt *some* owners to *request* capacity increases in sometimes publicly owned stadiums, I think there are a lot of obstacles (some real, some imagined) that will need to be overcome before we see a genuine league-wide movement to increase capacity.
For San Jose to increase the league average by 200 people per game, they would need to increase there average by 3800. Because their current attendance is 15229, this would give them an average attendance of 19029. Therefore, I would argue that my estimated increase of 200 is very optimistic.
I'm not stating ANY altruism. Not sure how your read that into my comments. The owners are in business to make money. The only way for them to do that is grow the business. Stadium capacities and ticket prices are drivers of supply and demand. I think it's naive on your part to assume that the owners would not address the issue of stadium capacity. Do you really believe that they would not pursue stadium expansion in those markets where demand for tickets is strong? Note: Garber stated in the SI interview today that to date $2 Billion has been invested in MLS. And the owners have seen NO return on that investment......we still have a long way to go.
The reason that their current avg is 15K+ is because of their "one-off" match in the larger stadium. They will presumably still have that larger stadium at their disposal (if they wanted to rent it for the LA derbies), however their *typical* attendance cap is still 11K, or whatever, right now. MOST non-derby (15-16) matches will see an increase in capacity over this year of 7-8K, again, making available capacity increase league wide by about 400. Nothing will stop them from packing in 50K once or twice a year when LA comes calling.
Well, I live in Seattle. I can tell you from personal experience that stadium expansions and rebuilds (at least in this part of the country) are rarely rubber stamped. Just because an owner wants to increase capacity, doesn't mean he automatically gets to (places like Seattle aside, where the extra capacity already exists). And I also think most owners are smart enough to look beyond current numbers and take into consideration factors like sustainability, and account for attendance "bumps" like perhaps their team doing better than average. And while some (and perhaps most) owners have not yet seen a cash return on their investment, they most certainly factor that in. But I am one of those that would argue that most (if not all) of the owners actually *have* seen a positive return on investment, even if that return is an unrealized capitol gain from owning (and the ability to sell if they wish) a professional sports franchise.
It depends on whether the expansion is feasible. I'm guessing a lot of teams would find themselves in a position where building a new stadium might be better than expanding their current stadium. Stadium issues are very slowly fixed, and there is rarely appetite for new work to be done when the stadium is still fairly new. In other words, given how fast demand is rising it's possible that the kind of expansion necessary might be more than what the owners are willing to do, at least within a short time frame. This would only change if the league were to suddenly get revenue sources that far exceed current expenses. I can only see that happening if TV networks decide to pay outrageous amounts for the league rights, which could happen if they ever think there is going to be an exponential rise in demand for the sport moving forward.
Very well, using 18000 for 16 games and 50000 for one game results in an average of 19882 which is an increase of 4653 over current attendance and an increase of 245 for the league average. In order to see your increase of 400 to the league average, they would need to increase the current average attendence by 7600 to 22829. This is 10000 higher than their all time average. Including your 50000 game, this would require an average of 21131 for the other 16 games at a stadium that will have reported capacity of 18000. I still maintain that my estimated increase of 200 to the league average is generous.
Your math is still faulty. This *entire* season's capacity would be 16 * 10,300 + 50,000 = 12,635 avg, using your logic, and with a single 50,000 and a 18,000 stadium would produce an avg cap of 19,882, or about a 7250 delta per match. SJE's average attendance is going to decline for the rest of this season, so you have given way too much weighting to the 50K match versus the ones at 10.3K Buck Shaw. You may be correct that they will only contribute a 200 - 250 fans-per-match increase, but your methodology does not support that conclusion.
First you need to figure out how much the drag on attendance is from the 10k then think about reversing that course with the 150-200 plus. now you have a better range of change.
2011 Games Played: 306 Total Attnd: 5,467,880 Average Attnd: 17,869 Median Attnd: 17,639 Median-33%: 11,765 Median+33%: 23,530 <MED-33%: 56 / 18.3% >MED+33%: 36 / 11.8% Average %CAP: 81.0% Median %CAP: 85.7% Games <70%: 86 / 28.1% Games >90%: 139 / 45.4% 2012 Games Played: 196 Total Attnd: 3,658,880 Average Attnd: 18,668 Median Attnd: 18,265 Median-33%: 12,182 Median+33%: 24,365 <MED-33%: 32 / 16.3% >MED+33%: 18 / 9.2% Average %CAP: 84.4% Median %CAP: 89.3% Games <70%: 44 / 22.4% Games >90%: 93 / 47.4% NOTES 1. For information regarding 2011 stadium capacities go HERE. 2. Per 2012 MLS Team Media Guides the following are the standard capacities for each team's regular home stadium: CHI (20,000); CHV (18,800); COL (18,086); CLB (20,145); DCU (19,647); FCD (20,500); HOU (22,000); LAG (27,000); MTL (20,341); NER (20,000); NYR (25,000); PHI (18,500); POR (20,438); RSL (20,213); SJE (10,525); SEA (38,500); SKC (18,467); TFC (21,140); VAN (21,000) 3. The following are capacity exceptions to the norms above: MON 3/17 (58,500); SJE 3/17 (41,915); MTL 4/7 (22,000); MTL 4/28 (22,000); MTL 5/12 (58,500); MTL 5/19 (22,000); SJE 6/30 (50,000; 4. Some listed capacities are "seated only" and teams may have sold/had SRO attendance over this amount, thus putting the %CAP over 100% for certain games. For calculating the average and median %CAP for all games these 100%+ numbers were used as is.
That's a LOT of what ifs given that as far as I know no stadiums plan to increase their capacities. Perhaps Seattle will add a few seats again, but Toronto isn't exactly looking ready to expand right now. A new stadium in DC could give a small bump, but that stadium is a long way off if it ever does happen.