MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 19 (and week 18) *renamed

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Jul 15, 2012.

  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So week 17 is not yet completed, but I wanted to post distinct numbers for week 16, and did not see the point in creating two threads today. So here we have a combined week 16 and 17. I do apologize for the delay I just had no time with the unexpected DC travel. Other than an hour or so last night when I got the numbers for week 16 updated, this is the first I have been online.

    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:

    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column

    17869 is the max
    13756 is the min
    4113 is the difference

    To calculate the derived value for 2010
    Subtract 16675 from 17869 to get 1194.
    Divide 1194 by 4113 then mulitply by 100* to get 29

    *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read.

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
     
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  2. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Week 16 Attendance:Well Week 16 was definitely a huge week. 4th of July week usually produces a good attendance bump, that definitely happened this season for individual teams, but because of how solid the leagues numbers have been there was not much change in the league wide numbers. I think that is defintely a positive sign.

    Comparison to This Point Last Season and All-Time Averages:Not to sound like a broken record, but there is really no dramatic change here.

    AAAQ Current Season and Historical End of Season:
    This season is firmly entrenched in first by both measures. Currently 14 teams are averaging greater than 15k in attendance, and of the 5 that are not, 4 of them have historically averaged over 15k. Through week 16 MLS had played 171 matches, or 52.9% of the season. Of those 171 matches 115 topped 15k, and the standard deviation is 8398. Finally the median of team medians is 18168.

    Milestones:
    Week 16 had a couple milestones. Portland reached 500k in match 26, which is tied for 5th fastest. Houston played their 100th home match, drawing 1,762,857 fans in that time. That is the 4th best attendance number through 100 games.
     

    Attached Files:

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  3. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Last Weeks Attendance, and Upcoming Matches:
    10 matches, only 16770 in average. How strange to be slightly disappointed in a week that would have so recently been deemed a great week. Heady times indeed. We once again have 15 matches on tap this week, including a couple of midday home matches for the Red Bulls and Goats. And a further 5 matches on Wednesday, making 7 matches on a Wednesday which has to be a record. It also appears to be the first time all three teams north of the border host on the same day. Should be a wild day.

    Comparison to This Point Last Season and All-Time Averages:
    Not much change here, but kudos to Columbus who are once more very close to their all time average. A very encouraging sign. Also note the Toronto and Vancouver numbers. By my reckoning, they are separated by a total of 6 fans this season.

    AAAQ Current Season and Historical End of Season:
    Once again this season is tops in both measures and I expect to be saying the same through the end of the season. Through this past week MLS has completed 181 matches or 56% of the season. Of those 181 matches, 122 have topped 15k. The standard deviation is 8213 and the median of team medians is 18168. Oh and some final food for thought, the under 10k number is 2.2% while the over 50k is 1.7%, and Seattle has three more that may cross 50k :whistling:. We also have not had a sub 10k game since May 13th a span of 86 matches. It is possible that one of the misguided midday Wednesday matches this week may break that span but still the season could end with a >50k number higher than the <10k.

    Milestones:
    No Milestones to report this past week.
     

    Attached Files:

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  4. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Boston Area
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nice work as always Ed!!!!
     
  5. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Boston Area
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, the average went up from this point in the season compared to the end of the season

    In 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011, the median went up from this point in the season compared to the end.

    If this recent historical trend continues this year, 19k average and a 18.5k median are not outrageous to think about.
     
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  6. Mucky

    Mucky Member+

    Mar 30, 2009
    Manchester England
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Indeed and the magical, if arbitrarily so, 20k would be within sight for the 2013/14 season.:geek:
     
  7. Spursfan1

    Spursfan1 Member+

    Sep 7, 2010
    Atlanta
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    not possible. it just wont happen. we will be stuck here till we get a few more 20k+ teams.
     
  8. zarcone9

    zarcone9 Member

    Sep 17, 2004
    bruccaline
    Club:
    US Città di Palermo
    Nat'l Team:
    Aruba
    week 17 looks to hurt, rain in rba wont help
     
  9. MobileSoccerFan

    May 14, 2012
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Whatever year SJ opens up will be a big jump.
     
  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Does 425 count as a "big jump"? Assuming the capacity between Buck Shaw and the new E-Quakes stadium is an increase of about 8K (I think the new stadium is around 19K and currently Buck Shaw is 11K) and we're still at 19 teams and 34 games, then a sold out new stadium would increase average attendance across the league about 425 people over a sold out Buck Shaw.
     
  11. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO

    Nice illustration of the value of this type of change on an entire season league wide. Those of us that have been paying attention remember very large double header games having an effect of like 65 people. A better measuring stick, obviously (and I know you know this), would be just to look at the number that the new stadium produces measured up against historical numbers for the Clash/Quakes and other new stadiums moves. I should be fun to look into and watch as others read way too much into other metrics in BigSoccer fashion.
     
  12. MobileSoccerFan

    May 14, 2012
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Since that is only the effect of one team, I'd say yes. Then again, attendance for the other teams could be a net loss and it wouldn't matter.
     
  13. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Boston Area
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it will be smaller than 425 for the following reasons

    1) SJ averages more than what Buck Shaw holds due to a couple of games held outside of Buckshaw each year.

    2) I don't think we should expect the team to sell out every game at the new stadium. Using an 18k number might be more realistic

    *This assumes that SJ plays all of their games in the new stadium and does not continue to play one or two at a bigger stadium. Financially it may not make any sense for them to do it anymore considering the cost to rent the bigger stadium and the loss of revenue they likely will control in their own place.


    I think a league wide bump of 200-250 is more realistic to expect.
     
  14. lfcli30

    lfcli30 Member

    Jun 21, 2005
    New York
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    19,414 in New York. Not great, not terrible either.

    This wednesday will be a disaster in both quality of play and attendance in NY. Wednesday afternoon matches in the middle of a heat wave...another wonderful idea brought to you by Chris Heck.
     
  15. MobileSoccerFan

    May 14, 2012
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Wasn't the last game that was predicted to be a Heck failure end up a sell-out?
     
  16. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Was it at 1 PM in the middle of the summer. I'd expect an announced attendance around 13k and about 9k actually there unless they've been giving away tons of free tickets to summer camps. Wouldn't be a bad idea to do that actually.
     
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  17. MobileSoccerFan

    May 14, 2012
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Don't think it was. Just trying to keep it realistic. I get the digs for PSL and hiking prices,but gotta give credit when it's due as well.

    Hopefully, it won't be that bad for Wednesday.


    ---------------

    Side note because I just remembered, Columbus had $1 beer and brat night. Probably helped.
     
  18. atlantefc

    atlantefc Member

    Jul 18, 2006
    F*dabig4neveryleague
    Club:
    Charlton Athletic FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    Why schedule a game at 1PM on a Wednesday ? is it a holiday in NY or something? it seems strange for a league match to be played on a Wednesday at 1PM
     
  19. RfrancisR

    RfrancisR Member+

    Aug 7, 2006
    New Orleans Diaspora
    This just amazes me. Who the heck signed off on this nonsense. I heard that on ESPN and I was stunned. This should never happen. The moronic idiot who came up with this idea should be fired and then sent to GITMO.
     
  20. delo_pata

    delo_pata Member

    Jan 12, 2001
    Durham, NC

    Read on twitter that it's a special "camp day." Apparently lots of kiddies are expected. Maybe will bring mean attendance down a bit but not so stupid in trying to get kids hooked on the experience.
     
  21. lfcli30

    lfcli30 Member

    Jun 21, 2005
    New York
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right on. Those 8,000 season ticket holders won't care about missing games that they paid for due to regular 9-5 working hours.

    By the way, it's camp day for the Yankees that same day too. This is incredibly stupid. No way around it.
     
  22. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    since this attendance thread is ostensibly about MLS and how attendance effects revenue and/or profits i wanted to share some information that i recently heard on the Pitch Invasion podcast:

    the most recent episode had an interview with the President of RSL and some of the things he revealed are very interesting:

    1. RSL's revenue from sponsorship for this season was $7M (up from $1.7M pre Rio Tinto)
    2. for the 2012 season the team's EBITDA will be positive
    3. in 2 years they project that even including servicing stadium debts they will be turning full profit

    http://pitchinvasion.net/blog/2012/07/13/pitch-invasion-podcast-episode-6/
     
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  23. RfrancisR

    RfrancisR Member+

    Aug 7, 2006
    New Orleans Diaspora
    Yeh, I agree. I am not buying it. There's no way this is a good idea.
     
  24. ChrisV323

    ChrisV323 Member

    Jan 15, 2011
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    18871 in Houston
     
  25. jaykoz3

    jaykoz3 Member+

    Dec 25, 2010
    Conshohocken, PA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Just as an observation: Yankee Stadium holds: 52K RBA holds ~ 25K

    How many people live in the Tri-state area? ................ Just a wild guess but I'd say more then 77K.

    Enough snark from me, I agree with you it'll be a tough sell. A 4PM game against Seattle couldn't sell out. What are the numbers so far for the upcoming Philly game on Saturday?
     

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