So we are sixteen weeks into the season, I have been gone for the last six. Life has had a habit of getting in my way this spring and now early summer. I would like to promise that I will be back full time from here on out this season but the way things have happened thus far that is not a promise I can currently make. Remember in this thread we discuss the: (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.) This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets). The formula to find the weighted value for each column is: Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column 21549 is the max 13756 is the min 7793 is the difference To calculate the derived value for 2013 Subtract 18608 from 21549 to get 2941. Divide 2941 by 7793 then multiply by 100 to get 38 (rounded) The above values are from the historical AAQ which is available in the first post of each month and in this the preseason thread. MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced. Some questions have come up about what a valid source for this thread is, for the record the source order that I use is MLS Match reports from mlssoccer.com, then Team Match reports from the team specific site, then boxscore/match report from the local then visiting news paper or tv station, then reconciliation of numbers between my previous tally and MLS Pressbox, finally social media accounts of known team reporters. As such 95% of my numbers are from the official MLS Match report, and 99% come from official MLS Sources. Linking to a tweet or post of a fellow fan is not a verifiable source.
Last Week: Everyone was in action and then some, with a total of 12 matches. There were some notable individual absences as Copa America wound down, but plenty of excitement in the matches that were played. Home Team Attendance Philadelphia 16667 Real Salt Lake 18036 LA Galaxy 21884 Seattle 47537 DC United 16051 Philadelphia 17225 Columbus 20389 Orlando City 27818 Montréal 20032 FC Dallas 13128 San Jose 50816 Portland 21144 Total 290727 Average 24227 This Week: We have the fifth round of the USOC, the last match of the CCL, and then the July 4th slate. Of course with the Holiday on a Monday we do not get our normal double up week. Nonetheless I think we can expect a very healthy attendance week. Starting Friday night in Chicago with the Fire hosting the Quakes does this have a name? If not it should. Also on Friday DC is at RSL. We get three on Saturday, two north of the border with Montreal hosting New England, and Seattle at Toronto, then one in Texas with east leading Philadelphia at Houston. Sunday sees Red Bulls return to Yankee Stadium, and Columbus at Sporting. Finally Monday the 4th brings us FC Dallas home to Orlando City, the Timbers are at Colorado, and we wrap with LA hosting Vancouver.
Season Stats: Remember in the count columns everything above the 20k cell is a subset of the 20k number, and likewise everything below the 15k is a subset of that. We are 161 matches or 47.4% of the way through this season. Season Stats Totals …… Threshold Count Percent Played 161 …… >=50000 2 1.2% Total 3451626 …… >=40000 5 3.1% Average 21439 …… >=30000 20 12.4% Median 19950 …… >=25000 34 21.1% Maximum 60147 …… >=20000 80 49.7% Minimum 10144 …… <15000 25 15.5% Deviation 7829 …… <12500 6 3.7%
AAQ Data: I honestly have not spent a whole lot of time looking over the numbers. I know we are doing well, and seemingly on pace to best last year. That being said please draw and post your own conclusions. Historic: Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Game 1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 53 60 64 64 241 9 9/22 160 1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 89 89 73 90 341 17 9/28 160 1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 93 100 77 90 360 18 9/27 192 1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 93 86 94 93 366 19 10/10 192 2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 90 100 100 390 20 9/9 192 2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 85 81 77 86 329 15 9/9 158 2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 74 73 50 84 281 11 9/22 140 2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 85 77 68 85 315 14 10/26 150 2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 77 83 72 66 298 13 10/17 150 2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 83 91 79 86 339 16 10/16 192 2006 15538 14175 18.8% 18.8% 77 72 55 83 287 12 10/15 192 2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 61 57 24 54 196 6 10/21 195 2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 65 59 32 68 224 8 10/26 210 2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 71 65 43 78 257 10 10/25 225 2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 63 58 22 74 217 7 10/24 240 2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 47 29 16 59 151 5 10/23 306 2012 18807 18393 1.9% 32.5% 35 20 5 47 107 3 10/28 323 2013 18608 18359 5.6% 32.5% 38 20 16 47 121 4 10/27 323 2014 19149 18679 5.6% 40.6% 31 16 16 26 89 2 10/26 323 2015 21549 20018 0.0% 50.3% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/25 340 Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Game Current: Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Game 1996 20554 17261 17.3% 38.7% 13 36 54 33 136 5 7/4 75 1997 14663 13168 18.7% 14.7% 98 91 58 104 351 14 6/25 75 1998 14615 11871 22.2% 17.8% 98 108 69 94 369 16 6/21 90 1999 14265 13442 27.8% 17.8% 103 87 86 94 370 17 6/30 90 2000 14047 13146 32.2% 14.4% 107 91 100 104 402 20 6/17 90 2001 13793 13242 25.7% 12.2% 110 90 80 111 391 19 6/16 74 2002 15243 13287 21.2% 19.7% 89 89 66 89 333 13 6/26 66 2003 14547 13368 31.0% 15.5% 99 88 96 101 384 18 7/12 71 2004 15838 13472 23.9% 26.8% 81 87 74 68 310 11 7/4 71 2005 13959 11828 32.2% 13.3% 108 109 100 108 425 21 6/29 90 2006 15120 13148 22.2% 15.6% 91 91 69 101 352 15 7/4 90 2007 15056 14226 13.0% 20.7% 92 77 40 86 295 10 7/7 92 2008 16125 15024 11.1% 25.3% 77 66 34 72 249 8 6/28 99 2009 14957 14248 16.0% 16.0% 93 76 50 100 319 12 6/20 106 2010 16408 14322 9.7% 22.1% 73 75 30 82 260 9 7/10 113 2011 17340 16775 9.0% 27.1% 59 43 28 67 197 7 6/25 144 2012 18622 18202 2.6% 31.6% 41 23 8 54 126 4 6/30 152 2013 17500 17603 5.9% 24.3% 57 31 18 75 181 6 6/29 152 2014 18564 18157 7.2% 36.8% 41 24 22 38 125 3 7/4 152 2015 20729 19296 0.0% 46.0% 10 9 0 11 30 2 6/24 161 2016 21439 19950 0.0% 49.7% 0 0 0 0 0 1 6/26 161 Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Game
Comparison To Last Season and All-Time: A few team down big, one experiencing a sophomore slump in the stands despite a decent team on the field. Also a few up significantly two of them MLS 1.0 teams, and another that looked like it would behave like one. But that is just what the numbers tell me, as I said earlier I have not been paying very close attention. Team Played Total Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- Chicago 7 100161 14309 16126 15625 -11.3% -8.4% Colorado 8 119823 14978 15122 14336 -1.0% 4.5% Columbus 8 130650 16331 15061 15396 8.4% 6.1% DC United 9 141225 15692 13858 16759 13.2% -6.4% FC Dallas 9 123121 13680 15274 12939 -10.4% 5.7% Houston 7 142521 20360 20046 18637 1.6% 9.2% Los Angeles 8 192807 24101 20448 22158 17.9% 8.8% Montréal 7 152834 21833 15630 19637 39.7% 11.2% New England 8 144158 18020 16410 15757 9.8% 14.4% New York City 10 263146 26315 28785 29016 -8.6% -9.3% Orlando City 9 310816 34535 34393 32847 0.4% 5.1% Philadelphia 9 151580 16842 17493 18062 -3.7% -6.8% Portland 9 190296 21144 21144 20379 0.0% 3.8% Real Salt Lake 6 116529 19422 20217 17933 -3.9% 8.3% Red Bull NY 8 152189 19024 18919 17602 0.6% 8.1% San Jose 8 176816 22102 24331 13463 -9.2% 64.2% Seattle 8 326470 40809 40248 40333 1.4% 1.2% Sporting KC 9 176940 19660 20025 13187 -1.8% 49.1% Toronto FC 5 141312 28262 25286 20352 11.8% 38.9% Vancouver 9 198232 22026 20752 20168 6.1% 9.2% Team Played Total Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- The second table is more focused on this particular match number for each team. Recent is the most recent home attendance, current is the current season average, average and median are the teams average and median for this game number, and finally running average is where each team would be on average through this point of the season. Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Chicago 14729 14309 15831 15106 14788 -7.0% -2.5% -3.2% Colorado 18103 14978 22637 15285 14919 -20.0% 18.4% 0.4% Columbus 20389 16331 15299 14391 14297 33.3% 41.7% 14.2% DC United 16051 15692 17991 14176 16704 -10.8% 13.2% -6.1% FC Dallas 13128 13680 12748 13158 12851 3.0% -0.2% 6.5% Houston 19774 20360 17205 16364 17988 14.9% 20.8% 13.2% Los Angeles 21884 24101 24989 20415 22143 -12.4% 7.2% 8.8% Montréal 20032 21833 15575 15915 21733 28.6% 25.9% 0.5% New England 21456 18020 14371 14649 15063 49.3% 46.5% 19.6% New York City 27456 26315 27533 27533 28785 -0.3% -0.3% -8.6% Orlando City 27818 34535 23372 23372 34393 19.0% 19.0% 0.4% Philadelphia 17225 16842 18210 18176 18353 -5.4% -5.2% -8.2% Portland 21144 21144 20339 20674 20339 4.0% 2.3% 4.0% Real Salt Lake 18036 19422 19547 18293 17637 -7.7% -1.4% 10.1% Red Bull NY 21102 19024 16854 14790 18242 25.2% 42.7% 4.3% San Jose 50816 22102 16781 11313 13119 202.8% 349.2% 68.5% Seattle 47537 40809 37087 38311 37391 28.2% 24.1% 9.1% Sporting KC 18927 19660 12142 10219 12900 55.9% 85.2% 52.4% Toronto FC 30025 28262 20860 20145 20725 43.9% 49.0% 36.4% Vancouver 22120 22026 20404 20060 20115 8.4% 10.3% 9.5% Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Milestones: Several but I did not keep track. If I can figure it out I will post the update if not @aperfectring the thread is ready for your updates. The 2015 Team Centric Thread can be found here for those needing specific team data
As an old-timer, allow me to posit this: If we get to the end of the season... with more than a bit of competition from various international tournaments in the summer and qualifiers in the fall as competition.... and the less than 10k number is 0.0% and the greater than 20k number is above 50%...? Oh. Lawd.
What stuck out to me is that TFC, MTL & VAN are all significantly up. with year over year increases of 11.8%, 39.7%, and 6.1%. Thank you Canada!
Game Ratings These numbers are an attempt to assign a rating of how well an individual game's attendance matches up with performance of the league as a whole, and the individual team. The reference data is the previous year's average and standard deviation, for both the league, and the individual team. The numbers are the normal distribution's CDF multiplied by 100, and rounded to the nearest whole number. This means the valid range is from 0 to 100. Expansion teams are given -100 for their team score during their first season. This should be interpreted as "N/A", and the league score should be used as a decent comparison metric. DateTeamAttendanceLeague ScoreTeam Score 2016-06-22 Philadelphia Union 16667 27 44 2016-06-25 D.C. United 16051 25 59 2016-06-22 Real Salt Lake 18036 33 3 2016-06-22 Los Angeles Galaxy 21884 52 19 2016-06-25 Seattle Sounders 47537 100 100 2016-06-25 Philadelphia Union 17225 30 64 2016-06-25 Montreal Impact 20032 43 23 2016-06-25 Columbus Crew 20389 45 98 2016-06-25 Orlando City 27818 79 25 2016-06-25 FC Dallas 13128 14 36 2016-06-25 San Jose Earthquakes 50816 100 100 2016-06-26 Portland Timbers 21144 48 50
Floating Window A floating window number is the average attendance for that team over the last X number of games, or X calendar years. So, for 17 games, it is the average of the last 17-n games from the previous season and the n games from the current season. For 1 year, it is the average from one year prior to the noted date through the noted date, inclusive. e.g. for 2014-03-10 it would be from 2013-03-10 through 2014-03-10 inclusive. For each floating window size, a prior and a current value are provided, as well as the difference between them. The dates for prior and current are specified below, and the values there are inclusive of games played on that date. Floating window for X number of games Prior date: 2016-06-20 Current date: 2016-06-27 TeamCurrent 1Diff 1Current 17Diff 17 Chicago Fire 14729 0 15254 0 Colorado Rapids 18103 0 15589 0 Columbus Crew 20389 5575 17111 -39 D.C. United 16051 877 17215 284 FC Dallas 13128 -329 15169 -354 Houston Dynamo 19774 0 20787 0 Los Angeles Galaxy 21884 2233 25111 98 Montreal Impact 20032 -769 20304 113 New England Revolution 21456 0 20384 0 New York City 27456 0 27563 0 New York Red Bulls 21102 0 19707 0 Orlando City 27818 -9376 32923 262 Philadelphia Union 17225 1682 17107 -159 Portland Timbers 21144 0 21144 0 Real Salt Lake 18036 -2281 19879 -163 San Jose Earthquakes 50816 32816 19930 1930 Seattle Sounders 47537 6509 44511 378 Sporting Kansas City 18927 0 19494 0 Toronto FC 30025 0 24307 0 Vancouver Whitecaps 22120 0 21182 0 Floating window for X number of years Prior date: 2016-02-01 Current date: 2016-06-27 TeamCurrent 1Diff 1Current 5Diff 5 Chicago Fire 15468 -535 15640 42 Colorado Rapids 15589 -68 15306 68 Columbus Crew 17465 952 15825 614 D.C. United 17222 978 15171 -21 FC Dallas 15390 -623 15181 128 Houston Dynamo 20679 21 20205 331 Los Angeles Galaxy 25454 2062 22833 178 Montreal Impact 20182 2432 19842 205 New England Revolution 20672 1045 16291 616 New York City 28639 -377 28015 -1001 New York Red Bulls 19707 50 19379 77 Orlando City 32923 76 33432 585 Philadelphia Union 17107 -344 17711 -141 Portland Timbers 21144 0 20622 243 Real Salt Lake 19993 -167 19603 321 San Jose Earthquakes 21434 455 15916 1148 Seattle Sounders 44794 547 43196 473 Sporting Kansas City 19513 -174 19368 45 Toronto FC 24307 875 20971 557 Vancouver Whitecaps 21172 665 20366 198
On behalf of an entire nation (all of whom have sent me emails of authorization) I offer a hearty "your welcome"....particularly pleased with the Vancouver number...it is a fantastic town for our sport and good to see them dipping their toes into expanding their capacity and good to see it is working
17087 at RSL for the Open Cup vs Seattle which makes the second game this year that RSL got 17k+ for the cup.
I'm delighted to see Toronto's numbers improve. I feared with the poor results for several years that the great early enthusiasm would wane, but with the likes of Giovinco, Bradley and Altidore coming, it seems to have rejuvenated them.
Houston had 6,371 for the Open Cup against Sporting midweek. 18,164 in Portland for the Galaxy. Looks like all the two big drawing teams are now knocked out (Portland and RSL)
But I wonder if it wouldn't be better if he tried to get butts in seats rather than tickets sold/distributed, right?
That would be stupid and not worth the time. The best way to do this thread is to go by what people think it looks like on tv.
There were a couple thousand at the Dick today for the Rapids season ticket holder training session/Tim Howard debut.