MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 10

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Yoshou, May 16, 2011.

  1. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With Ed moving for the next few weeks, you are sadly stuck with me posting the weekly averages and various other bits that Ed posts. So, without further ado, let us dive into this in the deep end.

    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:

    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column

    17410 is the max
    13756 is the min
    3654 is the difference

    To calculate the derived value for 2010
    Subtract 16675 from 17410 to get 735.
    Divide 735 by 3654 then mulitply by 100* to get 20

    *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read.

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced. If you believe that the attendance was more or less than reported please use the Perceived Attendance thread to discuss that.
     
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  2. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    While not a bad week, two games from Dallas, one in San Jose, and a "poor" game in DC is a bit much for the other games to overcome and the season average went down some, but certainly not a massive amount. This week also had the first non-sell-out in Vancouver and the best attended game in PPL history:

    Code:
    Team          Attendance
    Philadelphia     19178
    Dallas            8145
    Vancouver        15608
    Toronto FC       18674
    DC United        12499
    New England      14186
    Dallas           12109
    Real Salt Lake   16301
    San Jose          9142
    Los Angeles      19763
    Seattle          36593
    New York         16365
    [B]Total           198563[/B]
    [COLOR=Red]Average          16547[/COLOR]
    
     
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  3. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This week continues the pattern for this season with maintaining the second best season in league history using the current AAAQ method. However, this week represents a return to 2nd place for the original AAQ methodology with 1996 having a cracking few games to bump up it's average and median.

    Current Season:

    Code:
    Year Average  Median  <10k    >20k AvgPts  MedPts  <10kPts  >20kPts  AAAQ  AAAQRnk  Date
    1996  21571   20158   13.6%  52.3%    0      0        18        0      18     1     5/30
    1997  15738   13893   18.2%  20.5%   67     77        37       74     255     7     5/18
    1998  14153   12013   20.8%  17.0%   85    100        48       82     315    13     5/16
    1999  14525   13697   28.3%  20.8%   81     79        79       74     313    12     5/22
    2000  12853   12891   32.1%   9.4%  100     89        95      100     384    16     5/13
    2001  14564   14234   20.5%  11.4%   80     73        46       95     295    11     5/19
    2002  16311   14065   17.9%  25.6%   60     75        36       62     233     5     5/18
    2003  13698   12638   33.3%  16.7%   90     92       100       83     366    15     6/7
    2004  15464   13614   23.8%  26.2%   70     80        60       61     272     9     5/29
    2005  14041   12134   28.3%  15.1%   86     99        79       87     351    14     5/28
    2006  16406   15742   18.9%  18.9%   59     54        40       78     231     4     5/31
    2007  14882   13981   14.8%  16.7%   77     76        23       83     259     8     6/2
    2008  15648   15024   11.9%  27.1%   68     63        11       59     200     3     5/24
    2009  14725   14051   19.0%  15.9%   79     75        41       85     279    10     5/16
    2010  16011   13611   14.9%  22.4%   64     80        23       70     237     6     5/22
    2011  17142   16339    9.3%  27.9%   51     47         0       57     155     2     5/15
    Historical End of Season

    Code:
    EOS  Average  Median  <10k   >20k  AvgPts  MedPts  <10kPts  >20kPts  AAAQ  AAAQRnk  Date
    1996  17410    15093  21.9%  26.3%    0      7        54       20      81      4    9/22
    1997  14606    12733  25.0%  16.3%   77     75        65       78     295     12    9/28
    1998  14312    11871  26.6%  16.1%   85    100        71       79     335     14    9/27
    1999  14282    12973  32.3%  15.1%   86     68        92       85     331     13   10/10
    2000  13756    12690  34.4%  12.5%  100     76       100      100     376     15    9/9
    2001  14961    13431  26.6%  17.7%   67     55        71       70     263     10    9/9
    2002  15821    14108  17.1%  18.6%   43     36        36       65     179      6    9/22
    2003  14900    13719  23.3%  18.0%   69     47        59       68     242      9   10/26
    2004  15549    13223  24.7%  25.3%   51     61        64       26     202      8   10/17
    2005  15112    12619  27.1%  17.7%   63     79        73       70     284     11   10/16
    2006  15426    14113  19.3%  18.2%   54     36        44       67     201      7   10/15
    2007  16767    15353   8.2%  29.7%   18      0         3        0      20      1   10/21
    2008  16460    15188  11.0%  24.8%   26      5        13       28      72      3   10/26
    2009  16037    14686  14.7%  20.9%   38     19        27       51     135      5   10/25
    2010  16675    15332   7.5%  22.5%   20      1         0       42      63      2   10/16
     
  4. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hopefully I've done this part right, I've done this year, last year, and all time. I've chosen to "compare" each year by the game count for each team. I'm not sure that is a fair comparison because not every season has the same number of games, and when those games took place is different, but that is what I went with, so enjoy. :)

    Code:
    Team            2011    2010    Diff  All Time  Diff
    CD Chivas USA  14648   14554    0.6%   14824    -1.2%
    Chicago        13628   14334   -4.9%   14724    -7.4%
    Colorado       13243   12404    6.8%   13846    -4.4%
    Columbus       10199   14244  -28.4%   14313   -28.7%
    DC United      16344   14635   11.7%   17116    -4.5%
    FC Dallas      14258   10448   36.5%   12367    15.3%
    Houston        16078   15754    2.1%   16673    -3.6%
    Kansas City        0       0      0%       0       0%
    Los Angeles    24496   19397   26.3%   21101    16.1%
    New England    10892   10319    5.6%   15322   -28.9%
    New York       17191   16740    2.7%   18107    -5.1%
    Philadelphia   18045   22614  -20.2%   20330   -11.2%
    Portland       18627       0  100.0%       0   100.0%
    Real Salt Lake 16672   14950   11.5%   16184     3.0%
    San Jose        9879    9654    2.3%   12487   -20.9%
    Seattle        36348   36145    0.6%   34010     6.9%
    Toronto FC     19557   20410   -4.2%   20051    -2.5%
    Vancouver      19987       0  100.0%       0   100.0%
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. BigLarr

    BigLarr Member

    Jan 2, 2001
    Overland Park, KS
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Any idea where on mlssoccer.com one could find the 2011 attendance numbers? That info seems to have recently disappeared from their stats page.
     
  6. Golazo

    Golazo Member+

    Apr 15, 1999
    Decatur, GA USA
    I heard they're taking the page down long enough to add a "legs broken per game" column. It'll be back up by Wednesday.
     
    2 people repped this.
  7. RfrancisR

    RfrancisR Member+

    Aug 7, 2006
    New Orleans Diaspora
    A 100% of zero is zero. The categories are not applicable to Vancouver and Portland. But otherwise, great job. It's great info and a hard job.
     
  8. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    What stands out the most to me is only 4 teams have falling attendance, and one of those (Philly) can't help but do so given no games at Linc.

    We already know KC will increase, given the number of season tickets is reportedly more than their average attendance last year.

    With 12 increasing and 2 new teams with good numbers, this is truly a banner year.
     
  9. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

    Jun 20, 2007
    Home
    Actually, since it looks like his formula is (A_2011-A_2010)/A_2010, the value is undefined
     
  10. theENFORCER

    theENFORCER Member

    Apr 10, 2010
    NY
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    LAG looks solid this year already building on a good number last year. True class of the league.

    What's wrong with Columbus? Are they really that boring to watch?
     
  11. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    I wonder if gas cost might be hindering some places. I mean it is 4.20 a gallon for regular where i live and it is worse in some places close by.
     
  12. Stereolab

    Stereolab BigSoccer Member

    Jul 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Judging by their appearance at San Jose last weekend, umm, yes.
     
  13. Bubba1971

    Bubba1971 Member+

    Nov 12, 2010
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Should be a good week.

    Chivas get their annual sellout against the Galaxy. Portland, Philly and Seattle should all be sellouts. Houston will draw well with RBNY and Dallas and Salt Lake are two of the hottest teams in the league (although Dallas isn't predictible.)
     
  14. LeftyLeftyOutside

    Aug 25, 2010
    Johnson City, TN
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's almost like they've done no marketing at all. The Blue Jackets are seeing a sharp attendance drop-off as well, but that's easy to understand because they've been consistently bad for almost their entire existence. I know the Crew got rid of a bunch of high-dollar players and lost their presenting partner, but this is still a competitive team that should be drawing much better than it has. Something smells fishy...
     
  15. RapidRush

    RapidRush Member

    Jul 1, 2009
    Caldwell
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's good to see the Rapids up slightly this year. We may end up beating our all time average by the seasons end. Considering the lack of marketing from the F.O. I'd say that's decent but have to wait and see.
     
  16. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm going to come right out and say that there is no way in heck Colorado is going to exceed their all time high. There is a good chance that it might be the 4th best, but exceeding #1 would require Colorado to get a larger stadium and beating #2 and #3 would require Colorado to be around 90% capacity for the rest of the season..
     
  17. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    Yup, 1st all time at the Dick, maybe. I pretty sure that the venue is not even big enough to beat the all time mark.
     
  18. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Hmmm...he actually said "all time average", which I interpretted to mean their historical average since day one. Beating that would give them an "above average year".

    But maybe your interpretation was correct. I guess we'll have to let him come back and clarify!
     
  19. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    I don't know if this may have been calculated and posted in other threads, but just an FYI:
    NBA average attendance 2010-11 regular season: 17,319
    NHL average attendance 2010-11 regular season: 17,122
    (stats via ESPN.com, I ran the averages myself through Excel)

    Our current average looks quite nice in comparison to those two, let's hope we can keep it up for the rest of the year.
     
  20. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I will try to remember to send the workbook that I keep this in. It also has the sheet with the Season to Date v Seasons End comparison and prediction.
     
  21. RapidRush

    RapidRush Member

    Jul 1, 2009
    Caldwell
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I meant our all time at DSP. Sorry, I should have clarified. Obviously when we were playing at MHS there is no way we could beat that. Our stadium only holds 18,000 now and I think in 2002 we averaged about 20,000 if I remember.

    But at DSP our highest yearly average was 14,500ish. We could beat that but it will take a little bit more.
     
  22. RapidRush

    RapidRush Member

    Jul 1, 2009
    Caldwell
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah sorry. I am doing multiple things at once and what I was thinking didn't come out in what I was typing. :eek:
     
  23. RapidRush

    RapidRush Member

    Jul 1, 2009
    Caldwell
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes but those sports also play way more games than the MLS does. My guess, as much as I love the MLS, is that if we had 80 games our attendance figures would be lower. I could be wrong though.
     
  24. FC Matt 90

    FC Matt 90 New Member

    Aug 1, 2006
    Philadelphia
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wouldn't bank on a sellout for Philly. There's rain in the forecast and Chicago isn't exactly the same kind of draw as NY or LA. I'd expect 17,500ish (+/- 500), which would still be very good.
     
  25. vponce75

    vponce75 BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 16, 2004
    SoCal
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So the draw of Logan Pause doesn't do it for you?
     

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