I don’t like that it is now a thing. And assuming for argument’s sake that it is, when judging seasons against each other you have to account for the strength of opposition and how much help a guy is getting from his teammates. So are 15 npG against Ligue 1 comp with the help he had at Reims better than 9 in the EPL with the help McBride had at Fulham. That’s kind of close. Like on that 06-07 McBride had no support, the second highest scorer was Boca with 5. I would not put Balo in the athlete bucket. He scored because of the sharpness of his movement, not his pace. I think he is pretty skilled but his finishing has been below average (25 npG on 31.4 npxG over his career). Pepi has a better history of finishing and his xGOT-xG/shot (over a large sample ≈ roughly how well a player places their shots) has looked good over his career. His movement has improved but he’s not getting a ton of challenging reps. The Eredivisie is about the weakest I can remember and the cultural commitment to playing good soccer has eroded but it’s still there.
I think Dest will eventually far surpass the production of others but it hasn't happened yet. Every RB we play has produced goals or assists since 2019. If you take out Dest, then more minutes would go to the other good options. Maybe Weah or Reynolds would play more. Musah might have to fight off some challenges for the job now with Johnny and Reyna.
I think for Balogun his underlying stats last year were really really good (and he underperformed them), whereas my recollection is that Pepi overperformed them. As for McBride I don’t think those sorts of stats are even available for his time at Fulham, but it’s also the case that the EPL of that time wasn’t like it is now when it’s pretty unquestionably considered the best league in the world as well.
The thing is MLS is also just never going to kill the salary cap. Salary caps are very much a thing across US sports and owners like them because of the certainty they provide in terms of costs. Now the salary cap will continue to increase as it has and they will continue to add more mechanisms to spend more outside the cap. There’s also the long standing discussion in terms of whether to provide more freedom in terms of how the current level of money is being spent. And while they just increased the amount of money from an expensive transfer you can spend on the roster there’s still room there too. But either way MLS is going to at some point in the future surpass the spending of the bigger Liga MX teams. It’s a certainty. Just a question of when.
He is quick, but I can see your point. Then again, I also don't think he's very far ahead of the others.
The bigger LigaMX teams will chase them -- they are making bank. But at some point, it won't matter. MLS doesn't even need to completely surpass, just win their regular share and the fact that it'll be 20 teams against 3 will tell the tale.
In fact............MLS average and median club salaries exceeded Liga MX average and median salaries years ago............................... Liga MX is just very top heavy while MLS is a league built on parity. CCC measures the top, so Liga MX is more of the favorite. What's funny is that in MLS, spending on salaries doesn't always equate to success. In 2021.............the bottom 4 in spending all made the playoffs, while 4 of top 5 spenders didn't. [Toronto the last couple of years, for instance. Spent huge on salaries to Insigne and others last year but were awful on the field.]
I wonder if this phenonenon is partially driven by the spending not being focused on building the best team, but on merch and ticket sales.
Typically this comes about when a team has top-heavy, really expensive DP signings..............but the rest of the team isn't up to snuff. Meanwhile the average player on a team like Philadelphia, not one of the leagues' biggest spenders, is better. Orlando has been near the bottom of the table in terms of salary, and Pareja is getting a lot of bang for his buck. Right now the three biggest salary outlays (at least in the article I saw) are Miami, TFC, and Chicago. TFC and Chicago have consistently spent on high-salary DPs (Insigne, Shaqiri), but just haven't gotten the overall balance right. Currently 9th and 11th in the East.
way too soon us-eligible mls stat leaders Goals Tillman 3 (2) White 3 (2) Gutierrez 3 (1) Bassett 3 McGuire 3 Mihailovic 2 (2) Adenirin 2 (1) A. Morris 2 (1) Ebobisse 2 Bunbury 2 Assists Luna 5 Gressel 5 Delgado 4 (1g) Lennon 3 Stroud 3 White 2 (3) Tillman 2 (3) Bedoya 2 (1) Sullivan 2 (1) Roldan 2 Wolff 2 Combined Delgado 5 Luna 5 Gressel 5 Tillman 5 White 5 Gutierriez 4 Mihailovic 4 Lennon 3 Adenirin 3 A. Morris 3 Stroud 3 Bedoya 3 Sullivan 3 McGuire 3 Bassett 3
Those are guys that may have been overpaid for because their heritage resonates with the local population. Shaqiri plays for Switzerland, but he has a Balkan ethnicity.
Sure but they still lag the bigger teams at at some point in the near future that will no longer be the case.
Fotmob US-eligible former college player Team of the Week 7 -------------------------White(Duke)------ ----J.Morris(Stanford)---------------------------------------------* -----------*-----------------------------------------------------------*----- ------------------------Amaya(UCLA 1 yr)-------- -Markanich(Northern Ill)----------------------------D.Nealis(Georgetown)- -------------S.Nealis(Hofstra)--------Ragen(Michigan) ----------------------McCarthy(LaSalle) # of times the player on the US-eligible TotW has played college ball. -----------------------------------( 6/7 ) ( 2/7 )---------------------------- ( 1/7 )----------------------------- ( 4/7 ) --------------( 4/6 )-------------------------------- (1 / 7) ( 4/7 )------------ (4/7)------------------------ (7/7)---------------- (4/7 ) ----------------------------------(7/7)
Balogun has underperformed his xG in every pro season. This season he is just slightly overperforming his npxG with .47 npG/90 vs .44 npxG/90. That .47 npG/90 rate is also slightly higher than last season’s .45 npG/90. In that last season he was at 21 G on 26.57 xG and 23.57 xGOT. Meaning he probably didn’t place his shots well but still got a little unlucky. This season it’s 7 G on 9.14 xG and 9.82 xGOT, which makes it look like he has been unlucky not to score a couple more. I wish FotMob posted npxGOT. This year he has 0 pG on 2.37 pxG and 2.84 pxGOT. They rated his penalties highly. That makes it 7 npG on 6.77 npxG and 6.98 npxGOT. So overall it seems like he was unlucky on his penalties (I would argue not as much as these numbers say because they were all hit to the same spot) and basically bang average from the run of play. Pepi way overperformed last season after significant overperformance at FCD. Last year he scored 12 on 7.23 xG and 9.03 xGOT. At FCD in his last season he scored 13 on 9.48 xG and 12.35 xGOT. This season it is 7 on 7.05 xG and 6.24 xGOT. The stat informed narratives are that Balogun gets in good positions frequently and has been pretty average (for a high volume ST) at placing his shots while Pepi is maybe unproven at how well he gets into good positions (not great until playing as a sub for a giant) but overall adds value with his shot placement*. For me the EPL has long been the best league because of the depth of resources. The EPL domestic TV deal was 2x Spain’s at this time and they also had more of an international footprint. They shared those deals much more equitably than every other league other than the Bundesliga and unlike the BL don’t include the 2nd division. For me the EPL went from being 2% better in the mid Aughts to 5% compared to the 2nd best league. However when it comes to the clear 5th best league, Ligue 1, I think there has been a fairly stable gap (as the EPL improved so did Ligue 1 but Ligue 1 today would still be significantly behind the EPL of the Aughts). Personally I see McBride being more likely to score 15 npG for last season’s Reims than Balogun to score 9 for that Fulham. *The tricky thing with xGOT is that it assumes avg GK positioning based on the situation. So some tap ins or open goal shots or scrambles get dinged because the GK is out of position and the finish goes closer to where the GK is expected to be. Also the Opta xGOT isn’t as good as the Statsbomb one, which does a better job of accounting for partial obstructions and the importance of shot velocity. Neither have cracked trajectory, at least in what is publicly available.
Zusi had 2 assists in as many games. Dest assisted against Iran. Zusi assisted against Ghana an Portugal. Dest is impactful all right - like an inconsistent jet engine. Haji LF + Pulisic RF + Weah RB > Pulisic LF + Weah RF + Dest RB We can definitely upgrade over Qatar by adding Haji into the LF position where he has thrived in England, moving PUlisic to RF where he plays for AC Milan (you might have heard of them; you know, the club that returned Dest to sender, Barca, who promptly took advantage of PSV's kindness and loaned him out to Eredivisie) and moving Weah to RB where he has been flawless for Juventus in Serie A.
It is and it isn't. NASL improved their talent level through spending on international players (some stars but the majority of players were not top level) and improved the quality of the league far beyond the capabilities of all but a very small handful of Americans. They had to mandate that there would be a minimum number of Americans on each team and, if I remember correctly, a minimum number of US players on the field (I seem to remember 3?) as well. As a result, all teams had an American goalie a defender or two and probably more naturalized Americans than US raised. Guys like Rick Davis were definitely not the norm. Most Americans sat on the bench behind 2nd and 3rd division European talent (if it was an English manager, they would all be mostly English and so on). I remember looking at a team picture of the Aztecs when George best was on the team. It was a long time ago but I remember almost every player being English and many/most were from 2nd, 3rd English division teams. if I remember correctly. They also had "team America" in 1983 which finished last. Team America (NASL) - Wikipedia Currently, the typical top US player has gotten exponentially better than in the 70's but there still isn't enough to fully populate a top 4 or 5 league without depending primarily on foreign talent. What's more, if MLS was to improve to top 5 level, it would likely impede the progress of our youth development until USL improved enough to fill the gap. If we eliminated the salary cap, we would probably have at least a few more of our best players choosing to stay, but I believe MLS would look more like the NASL than MLS looks at the moment. We need the level of competition available at an improving USL and at an improving MLS. Improving MLS artificially will, imo, leave a gap/canyon that is more difficult for our young players to cross. As we improve the quality of the US talent being fed into the league, we will continue to see an improvement in the overall quality of the young US players, the overall quality required of foreign talent (no 3rd division players on the books), the overall quality of US players that choose to stay would improve, the overall quality of the league, and eventually (not tomorrow...) MLS will be seen as one of the top destinations, on par with the top 5, for US players (as well as foreign players). If we did eliminate spending and had an MLS version of team America I know they wouldn't finish last this time but some of our very best still wouldn't play for them. (as also happened with "Team America") but that is another story. I know that many of you think we will never get there but I am sure that we will. I may or may not be alive to see it but we will get there. Anyone that remembers the state of soccer in the US in the 60's and the growth to the current level should notice that it hasn't been linear but exponential. The quality of our young players is gaining momentum and those that predict our future failures based on the past are missing the whole picture. Where you are absolutely correct about different eras being important is that, even a total collapse of MLS would not have as drastic effect that I believe the collapse of the NASL had. If, for some unlikely reason, MLS collapsed, I think the soccer economy is strong enough that USL or some other organization would step up and almost immediately fill the void.
I agree and want to emphasize youth development is going to be key for MLS. Otherwise’ we’ll end up like the Saudi or Chinese league which has some legitimate superstars but no spine to hold it all together. MLS Next Pro will need to evolve to become the premier youth development system in the world…. Which I think is possible with better coaching and what not. At the same time, MLSNext Pro needs to hire a better marketing team if it hopes to get to that level too. USL should be there to pick up the pieces and reach the national footprint.
Perfectly stated. I would much rather see the money that would be spent subsequently to a lifted cap be spent instead on academy investment
I think with MLS it’s a tough needle to thread in terms of development and more spending. You want the league to be at a certain level so that young players are getting development opportunities at a high enough level. But you don’t want it to be too high a level where they can’t break in or where there aren’t good opportunities for Americans. And the flip side is you just instead pay the Americans really well a lot of them are not going to move to Europe or will have priced themselves out a move. It’s a tricky balance to strike.
That's great context on Zusi. I think you're a little harsh on Dest but it's true that the USMNT production has not been as good as the entertainment value I don't know what games would end much diferent with Jones or Moore.
Missing your starting keeper should be an obvious issue, but I did not think we'd miss Celentano so badly. Just saw some stats saying he's 4th best G+ so far in this young season. 86% save percentage. He's been ok with the ball at his feet though it's an area he could still improve. He's a little too old for the Olympic cut off, but he should be as hyped as Schulte, in my opinion. Both very good.
This is the type of perspective that is missing from younger generations and newer fans..... I posted this sentiment a page or three back, but without any of the valuable context that you include -- the bottom line is that increased spending will have a negative impact on player development in the US until our player pool is worthy of those higher salaries. In other words, if we care about the development of American players, MLS spending will be at least somewhat handcuffed by the quality/value of the American player. Two things that are extremely important in this modern equation: 1. As @Eleven Bravo points out, the reserve division is absolutely vital. Competitions like CCC, the Club World Cup, Leagues Cup, etc. will get more attention, but the development and progress of MLS Next Pro is probably the most important part of the landscape over the next few years. 2. Different team identities/philosophies are also very important as some will place more resources into developing players than others will. If the Portland Timbers and Minnesota aren't interested in developing youth, no big deal because there will be a bunch that do with a handful having that as one of their primary focuses.
It's become a popular opinion that if MLS were to remove the "buckets" (DP, TAM, GAM, etc.) that GMs have to work within, MLS would be a much stronger league. That might be true, but those buckets are what provide the structure that you describing where it makes it possible for American players and young players in general to break into the first team while playing along side quality players. It's definitely a tricky balance, but it seems that MLS' approach has created a great balance of quality/competition while also keeping opportunities for American players available. Why MLS has never come out and explained this -- instead allowing the narrative that they simply want to stifle the market -- makes me wonder if it's been an accident or if they did actually just stumble on this balance by chance. Maybe they did. Anyway, as the American pool of players continues to grow and improve, the "buckets" will become less necessary. I don't think we are at that point, though.
This article misstates Celentano as Olympic eligible but does a good job of comparing the numbers between him Schulte, and Brady. https://theathletic.com/5392981/2024/04/05/mls-usmnt-olympics-watchlist/