It begins: Santa Clara County bans all gatherings over 1,000 people for three weeks starting Wednesday. This includes the Earthquakes home game scheduled for March 21. https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03...h-santa-clara-county-bans-all-large-gathering
I work at Texas Tech (at the Health Sciences Center) where we're 100+ miles from anything and have no cases reported, and we just got a travel ban internationally and will need Dean/VP/Provost approval domestically for work related activities. That includes things like academic conferences and other standard activities now needing proof of extenuating circumstances for university approval. Personal travel to any level 3 country comes with registration with the university ahead of the trip and a mandatory 14 day self-isolation off campus after returning. Personal domestic travel will need a travel form filled out and filed beforehand and then testing when we return. All of that runs through April 30 and is expected to be pushed out through much of the year. To give you an idea of what we're hearing, the low end of projections right now are 30-40% of the US will get the virus and 10-15% of that population will need hospital treatment. That means probably over 100 million total cases and 10-15 million hospital visits. The US has fewer than 1 million hospital beds. This thing most likely isn't going to kill a huge number of people, but it's going to disrupt a lot of lives for a big chunk of 2020. I'm fairly sure that the Olympics are done and wouldn't be surprised if the NHL and NBA playoffs are significantly affected. This might even dig into part of football season in the fall.
But a hospital visit doesn't mean a hospital stay and you don't need to go to a hospital to get tested. Walk-in clinics are popping up in New York City like Starbucks.
I didn't say visit, I said treatment. That's for those who test positive. Those, along with testing of others, are going to take up beds in hospitals, and we've got about 1/10 of what's needed for the low end of expectations. I'll stick with the professionals on this one.
Ok, let's say we have 15 million people requiring hospital treatment and 1 million beds, how long is the typical hospital stay before people either kick the bucket or are sent home to self-quarantine?
Neither you nor I know that information, but the entire point of limiting travel and large gatherings is to slow the spread of the virus so that the health care system isn't completely overrun. Dealing with 10-15 million people over the next 6 months is likely doable. The same number of people in the next 6 weeks would stress the system to the point of breaking. I don't need all the details. The people making these decisions know more than likely everyone on BS combined. I'd rather follow what they say, even if it means being overly cautious, than waste my time questioning everything. I'm working from home today because I've been having issues with allergies the past 4-5 days and we've got a pretty liberal leave policy right now due to the virus. If this was last spring, I would have gone in without question.
That's my understanding, - a lot of people are going to get this, the goal is to spread out the time they get this so the medical system can handle it. The interesting thing about sports in situations like this, is that while sports is big business, it is fundamentally unimportant. That is in part why we enjoy it.
It depends on when those 15 million people require hospital treatment. If that 15 million people is spread out over months and months and never reaches a point where there are a million in need of hospitalization at any one time, that's one thing, but if those 15 million roll up on hospitals in a short period of time, such that more than a million need hospitalization, you're hosed.. That also assumes those 15 million people are spread out over the country equally, but since that hasn't been the case with any of the infections so far, hospitals can get overwhelmed at much lower numbers. Take what is happening in Italy right now. Since the infections are largely concentrated in northern Italy, the hospitals in northern Italy are overwhelmed and are sticking people wherever they can find a place for them and refusing to accept patients with even life threatening issues, while the hospitals in southern Italy are largely operating as normal.
Does Italy have Universal healthcare? Are the italians going to the doctor going to be saddled with bills in the thousands for going to get their COVID-19 treated? Just thinking about how we may not end up with as severe a strain on the healthcare system here. It's likely that it will, but I think a lot of folks will choose to stay home. If I get it, I'll certainly just be staying home unless I feel like I'm going to stop breathing.
And as hospitals fill up, others requiring treatment from every day problems will go without and mortality will rise.
Yes. Italy has universal healthcare. It is also happening in one of the most developed regions of Italy where they have some of the country's best hospital systems.
Side note! We've gone super sidetracked for this thread. We have a thread to discuss covid-19's impact on MLS here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/corona-virus-and-its-effects-on-mls.2109287/#post-38562837 and, if you are brave/stupid enough, a thread to discuss the impact of covid-19 in a broader sense here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/coronavirus-a-global-pandemic.2109049/ I just don't recommend going to the second link as it is in the PC&E forum and that is... shall we say... lightly moderated.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2020...y-improve-atlanta-lafc-experience-new-stadium Kraft looking to improve upon Atlanta and LAFC model in Boston...
The Seattle Dragons have drawn reasonably big crowds: 29,172 and 22,060. That's the 2nd highest average.