Might take another 10 years to develop talent to match teams like Belgium

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by USMens, Jul 1, 2014.

  1. Zenitfan

    Zenitfan Member

    May 31, 2001
    Dayton, OH
    Weren't we discussing this at the end of the 1998 cup?

    So... where are they?

    It's like Groundhog Day around here...
     
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  2. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The question of how?

    I believe that USL, MLS, NASL, the USSF, and the Canadian federation
    But is it that hard?

    All this talk about HGP territory... if MLS,... and USL & NASL...

    take Real Salt Lake's territory of claiming Utah and Arizona as a model.

    Real Salt Lake Academy League
    North Salt Lake Metro Conference:
    -Bountiful
    -Layton
    -Clearfield
    -Roy
    -Ogden* (home base)
    -South Ogden
    -North Ogden

    Salt Lake Metro Conference:
    -Downtown Salt Lake
    -Millcreek
    -Sandy City* (home base)
    -West Jordan
    -Kearns
    -Magna
    -Cottonwood Heights

    South Salt Lake Metro Conference:
    -Draper
    -Tooele
    -Pleasant Grove
    -Orem
    -Provo* (home base)
    -Spanish Fork
    -Lehi

    Northern Utah/Southern Idaho Conference:
    -Logan* (home base)
    -Brigham City
    -Pocatello
    -Burley
    -Willard
    -Rexburg
    -Idaho Falls

    Northern Arizona Conference:
    -Flagstaff* (home base)
    -Prescott
    -Lake Havascu City
    -Bullhead City
    -Kingman
    -Chino Valley
    -Sedona

    North Phoenix Metro Conference:
    -Avondale
    -Buckeye
    -Surprise* (home base)
    -Sun City
    -New River
    -Litchfield Park
    -Sun City West

    Phoenix Metro Conference:
    -Downtown Phoenix
    -Glendale* (home base)
    -Scottsdale
    -Tempe
    -Mesa
    -Paradise Valley
    -Peoria

    South Phoenix Metro Conference:
    -Apache Junction
    -Sun Tan Valley
    -Chandler* (home base)
    -Florence
    -Maricopa
    -Case Grande
    -Sun Lakes

    Tucson Metro Conference:
    -Downtown Tucson* (home base)
    -Oro Valley
    -Sahuarita
    -Sierra Vista
    -Casas Adobes
    -Marana
    -Nogales

    *take into account that I'm just looking at a map, and not familiar with where the best teams would be.

    *Teams play in seasons... and the "All-stars" of each conference play ultimately against the other conferences.

    OR, given that one of the main dilemmas that we have is travel... and when we are talking about kids, it's going to be hard to get parents to agree to go from Nogales to Idaho Falls. However, if we break it down even further. It'd be much easier to have a more advanced league where the best talents can compete for these spots all across the country and only have to worry about the travel from Mesa to Glendale. Then, at the "senior level" then we can more easily accommodate a league consisting of: Tucson, South Phoenix, Phoenix, North Phoenix, North Arizona, South Salt Lake, Salt Lake, North Salt Lake, and North Utah/Southern Idaho... which funnels even further into the actual Real Salt Lake system, and ultimately to the senior team.

    The benefit is that each club starts to really tap into their "territory" and there is structure and a process for how players work their way up to MLS,
     
  3. Solid444

    Solid444 Member+

    Jun 21, 2003
    It truly is amazing, I dont know if these are just new posters or they have no idea what they are talking about, but its the same thing time and time again.

    Everyone always picks somewhere between 8 to 12 years, every single time.
     
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  4. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No doubt, Similar than in the BSMX board right? Every 4 years after a round of 16 exits, the clock resets and everything repeats.
     
  5. Solid444

    Solid444 Member+

    Jun 21, 2003
    Right, here the problem is delusional optimism, there it is negative cynicism.

    But yea, most posters on either side lack the bigger picture.
     
  6. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    It's more than several more. There is indeed a wave coming.

    The truth is that USSF development academy only started in 2007 and the MLS Homegrown initiative only started in 2008.
    Patience is the key here.

    Modern US soccer history is only ~25 years old. On July 4,, 1988, the US was awarded the 1994 World Cup. That's they day we started taking the sport seriously. [We had to in order to not get humiliated at WC94.]

    Do people understand that we went from a country with no major professional soccer league, zero nationwide exposure on tv, no infrastructure (stadia, training centers, etc.), only a small professional coaching fraternity, etc..............................to a nation now expected to routinely make the knockout stages of the World Cup, in only 25 years?

    The "next step" in our development will take longer and be even harder. The step taking us from a contender to make it out of the group stage to a contender for the World Cup title is a maaaaaaaaaaaaaaajor one. Nations who've been serious about this sport for much longer than us haven't figured that out. Mostly because Spain, Argentina, Brazil, and the other world powers aren't going anywhere.

    People who think we're anything like Belgium, don't know their soccer history. Belgium has generations worth of a head start on us. And we've been closing fast.................................
     
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  7. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ucraymond repped this.
  8. Freddie Adu

    Freddie Adu Member

    Mar 6, 2003
    NYC
    While I liked what I saw from the USMNT over the last few years and in this WC, people have to remember that we looked just as good in 2002 and got further. That was 12 years ago. We all thought the future was super bright with Donovan/Beasley/etc. coming into their own. Well, 12 years later we still haven't reached the quarters again.

    I'm not saying we are not progressing, although I am not sure we are. Either way, it seems we have at least solidified our place as a team you'd rather bet will reach the R16 in a WC than not. That's good.

    There may be a next level that we will reach in the next decade, but even staying where we are (in terms of results) is solid.
     
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  9. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So what you're saying is we're being too optimistic about the USMNT's future?
     
  10. Cubanlix63

    Cubanlix63 Member+

    AFC Ajax
    Feb 19, 2014
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    I have a feeling like it going to be like this for a while. We advance out of the group, lose in first knockout round, foreign nations patting us on the head about our "spirit" and teamwork, media outlets wondering if Soccer has finally "made" it in the US rinse and repeat. Yes we are progressing but, so it the rest of the World(who would have thought that Belgium and Columbia would end up being this good 10 years ago). Making the next step as a Footballing nation will be difficult and may take a long time.
     
  11. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree with all of this. MLS is finally spearheading player development in an effective manner. I am especially encouraged by teams like the Galaxy setting up a full Division 3 developmental team (over other teams that stock small numbers of developmental players on a USL Pro team). PDL is fine - but the USL Pro level has far more potential.

    At the youth level, the single most encouraging thing has been the shift away from high school soccer. Folks can rail against college soccer (and they should), but having kids play year-round club soccer and foregoing HS soccer will really help development.
     
  12. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The goal is to make money and to become a bigger force in the sporting and entertainment world. Winning is just part of that; perception is another part.

    Spending on Bradley/Defoe becomes a brilliant move when MLS clubs spend on player development (already occurring) and more on the mid-level players (not happening; at least not yet - will possibly be better after the next CBA is completed). The moves must be all integrated; MLS needs kings, queens, rooks and pawns.
     
  13. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    I may be a bit more optimistic, but Clint is spot on here about the modern US soccer history. A lot of fans do not realize the NASL went totally bankrupt in the 80s. There was no US professional league for nearly 15 years. And MLS almost went belly up in the early 2000s.

    That said, a generation of young Americans have grown up with MLS, have grown up with the USMNT being at least relevant, and have grown up watching Champions League, La Liga and Premier League. I can definitely picture a crop of young Americans taking this sport by throat over the next 10 to 20 years. The future has never been brighter. This is a much different world than 1994, 1996 or 2002.
     
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  14. El Michael

    El Michael Member

    Dec 17, 2009
    Club:
    DC United
    MLS > NASL> USL> College> Mexico we sort of have a tier system and multiple options for youth players to continue. The arrival of USL is huge for growth going forward
     
  15. Grumpy in LA

    Grumpy in LA Bringing It Since 1807™

    Sep 10, 2007
    Chicago
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fingers crossed.

    But if odds hold, at least some of those guys will follow either Jovan Kirkovski's or John O'Brien's career path.
     
  16. Cubanlix63

    Cubanlix63 Member+

    AFC Ajax
    Feb 19, 2014
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Or Kenny Cooper. Or Vincenzo Bernardo. We have had plenty of young players end up on the youth teams of good European clubs they key is to get guys playing for those clubs.
     
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  17. Solid444

    Solid444 Member+

    Jun 21, 2003
    Absolutely.

    The biggest mistake is to assume that growth is linea, which it is not. The faulty logic goes something like this ¨Look at what we have grown in the last 20 years, imagine where we will be 20 years from now¨. However, growth is not linea and each incremental step is harder and will take longer than the last. I have no doubt that the US will be a top 5 team and a contender for the World Cup (you cant argue with the resources available) however the time line has been grossly misunderstood. And it is important to realize that it has been misunderstood time and time again, year after year. Do a simple search and you will see what people were predicting in 2002.

    It has taken the US about 20 years to go from outside of the top 32 to somewhere in the 15-20 range. It might take another 20 years to become a team that is in the 10-15 range and another 20 years to break the top 10 (where Belgium is now). Even so, talent creation is not linear and I would not be surprised at all if this team takes one step back before it takes two forward. There are also other teams with a much better talent development that will also be knocking on the door in the next few decades.

    Another BS mistake is to focus on individual players instead of the system in place. It is extremely difficult to predict where certain players will be 8 or even 4 years from now. There is no comparison between the net worth and club experience of Belgium players and US players. What is the highest value that an american player has ever reached, 10 million? The best thing to do is to look at teams that have been able to crack the top 10, teams like Colombia and Belgium and see what path they took to get there.

    So yes, I think most people are being way to optimistic. I would predict that it will take the US no less than 30 years to consistently be a top 10 team. A more realistic prediciton would be 40 years.
     
  18. Bclay

    Bclay Member

    May 29, 2012
    Virginia Beach, VA
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn't watching as closely 12 years ago, but did we have as many young prospects in Europe as we seem to have now? I mean outside of the guys already on the team. That's where things might be different, because while we have Brooks, Yedlin, Green, etc to be excited about (similar to Donovan/Beasley/OBrien in 2002), there's also a bunch of guys age 16-20 already training in Europe. Just looking at the 2006 and 2010 squads, I don't think there's a single player who fits that description in 2002. Gooch is the closest one, as he moved to Europe in 2003. Everyone else was still in the US at that time, or already on the team.
     
  19. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Adding to this... this really could be a simple system to implement.

    the main costs would be coaching... which for all that is concerned at the very lowest level is that the coach obtain a certain license... which should be provided to by the club. Other than that, the more localized the club conferences are, there is going to be a lot less travel expenses.

    After that, a couple of factors I'd add would be critical for success:

    1. players from each team only have the expense of buying a home/away jersey (exceptions could be made) for the home base team.... That in itself, is gold. instead of having Mesa Yellow Square Hawks versus Chandler Red Tigers FC or whatever names... it follows the structure and umbrella of Real Salt Lake. So team's are simply RSL's Mesa and so forth. One team wears home jerseys, the other wears away. The benefit of this is that it really puts the MLS club in the hearts of locals. If I'm from Flagstaff and I earn my RSL jersey; chances are that I'm going to be a RSL fan for life. Also, of note, any player who plays for the team should be able to either get free tickets or discounted tickets for club. And there is also the option that clubs gets involved in fundraisers and charities to where these clubs can actually bring in money instead of cost money.

    2. Any player who has played under this developmental system should be eligible for a HGP contract. And I really want to emphasize that in all honesty, we don't even need to increase the salary cap... we just need to have it where any player who is a HGP does not count at all against their salary cap. So if Juan Agudelo wants to resign with NYRB, he can without any cost to their salary cap... Plus, if Los Angeles Galaxy are able to field a super club with their HGP sprinkled with a few super DP's, they would be able to. This way, the only way the salary cap may hinder a team is if they are not developing talent. MLS teams should be rewarded greatly for developing talent.

    3. Schedules and rules can all be changed around as needed. For instance, if the said North Utah/South Idaho conference is struggling due to logistic factors, teams can play as low as 4v4 games with only 20 minute halves and instead of having a home/away traditional schedule where these clubs are going to have the headache of traveling long hours every weekend, the schedule can focus on having lots of games on a weekend at the home base. The point is not necessarily the games... It is getting the teams together and having them practice together under the guidance of a qualified coach.... And if for some reason, things need to be tweaked here or there, then do it. The point is make it work for the conference that it is in... but make it were it still pays off for the club, the league, and the nation where there is no stone left unturned. Emphasis on nationwide scouting and quality coaching... not on making things fit in a little box.

    4. Know that these teams are all tentative... for instance, there could be 2 or 3 clubs in one city; or, in cities like NY where there is some overlap between two MLS clubs... there could be a NYRB Englewood and a NYCFC Englewood. As long as teams are getting out there and aggressively pursuing development, the better. The thing is that when regards to what is a team's HGP territory, it is wherever they set up their system. Now, there may be some restrictions... for example, NY can't put a conference in LA (or should they? it's debatable)... But there should be benefits in the more that a club mines for talent, the more they should be rewarded.
     
  20. Grumpy in LA

    Grumpy in LA Bringing It Since 1807™

    Sep 10, 2007
    Chicago
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #145 Grumpy in LA, Jul 2, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2014
    Or Jonathan Spector. Or ...

    Yep. Getting the numbers up is great. Getting the quality of MLS academies and the USSF regional teams is great.

    But I think England, Spain, and Spain are worth thinking about. They've all won World Cups, Spain and Italy recently. At any given moment, they all have dozens and dozens of U-16s at top 5 clubs in top 5 leagues. And at Italy and Spain at least have 30-40 guys getting real minutes at such clubs. And yet, they can still crash out in the first round. And the Netherlands has been unbelievably good at youth development for decades and yet haven't won the World Cup.

    This Belgian team doesn't have much big-game experience, but the talent level is phenomenal, to my eye better than the current England's and probably also Italy's (I'm still baffled about Spain, tbh). We can get there. We have the will and the resources to do it. But it's not easy, especially since our peers are also trying to improve. And I doubt it's imminent. I mean, I'd love to be wrong. I hope I am.
     
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  21. CakeYear

    CakeYear Member

    none
    Jun 22, 2007
    Inglewood, Ca.
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Despite the hurdles facing young American soccer players.. with our population you'd think some young kid somewhere out of the 50 states would go against the grain and break out in the sport. Our country is too huge for this not to happen. A Mike Trout, a LeBron James, or even a Mark Zuckerberg(Facebook). There's always a kid somewhere in America on the verge of breaking out.. that's the foundation of this country anyways. Not saying I'm right.. just something that's stuck in my head
     
  22. BS49

    BS49 Member+

    Jan 25, 2008
    Drinking a beer
    Club:
    CF Atlas Guadalajara
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    There is a saying in Mexico translated "we played like never before but lost like always" in regards to our R16 exits. We reached our current level 20 years ago and have not been able to improve World Cup results. There is no guarantee of improvement and all the word teams also improve at the same time. We are getting some success at the youth level but as we have seen with the African teams that is not always a predictor of World Cup Success.

    In summary it is very hard to make that Jump and without a truly world class player the jump is not possible. We have a marginal one but he chose not to play in this World Cup. Green is the only one I see in you system that might someday be one. Yedlin had a good game but I have seen him struggle in MLS this season.
     
  23. nancyb

    nancyb Member

    Jun 30, 2000
    Falls Church, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Also, how do the MLS Academies find talent? I just got a DCU email mentioning tryouts for their academy. Seems like nothing more than the existing travel system. I understand that Ajax has volunteer scouters who go around the various playing fields looking for potential players. They bring those kids to the attention of the club and the potential kids are invited to come work out with the Ajax youth team. There, they are monitored and, if good enough, they progress. Otherwise, they'll be cut. It could take a few years before you're cut.
     
  24. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    Ya, that one.

    (1st half highlights)

    (2nd half highlights)

    --- (OT)

    Pfaff, Gerets, Vercouteren, Scifo, Ceulemans, Claesen vs. Dasayev, Bessonov, Zavarov, Belanov, Rats.

    I stumbled onto a Soviet TV coverage of the Cup a few moth ago - yes, the wonders of YouTube - and it was clearly a Gorbachev era coverage. The journalists were more informal and several famous Soviet era entertainers were shown hanging out with the boys.
     
  25. 70runner

    70runner Member

    Jun 21, 2007
    How many USMNT members would make the starting lineup for one of the top 10 WC teams? Howard and ....

    This team overachieved given the level of individual skill, along with the adverse travel adventures. They were dominated in every game except perhaps Portugal. Someone other than Howard in the net and it could have been 6-0 yesterday.

    When the midfield is weak, the defense is under constant pressure against quality teams. Even an AYSO coach knows that if you lose the midfield it's gonna be a LONG game....even with Howard in net. Can't remember a skilled midfield player on the USMNT since Reyna. With too few exceptions, Bradley was horrible during the entire WC. Teams with quick, athletic midfields typically dominate the US, like Ghana & Belgium did. Too many say ... well Bradley just had a bad game. No he didn't. He was simply overmatched, along with many of his teammates. If Bradley and Altidore are the best we have, it will surely be many years until the USMNT can compete at the top levels.

    Must get better - more skilled and athletic - in midfield. If not, the realistic goal will remain getting out of the WC group.
     
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