Matt Turner at Nottingham Forest

Discussion in 'Yanks Abroad' started by ChuckMe92, Jul 28, 2020.

  1. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    If Vlachidomos was added, I actually think that he would be at the bottom of the entire chart below Turner and Sels. Because I recall his PSxG/90 being horrifically bad.

    Which is a point in favor of the argument that Nottingham Forest had consistent systemic issues with their defense no matter who was in goal.
     
  2. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    Yeah, Vlach, tho he had a like 5 game sample, was at the bottom of the 3 keepers (and often close for the entire EPL) in lots of metrics. His 5-0 to Fulham, on top of another 3 goal game, did him no favors in the per 90.

    Forest had some very obvious defensive weaknesses, one of which was leadership. That might be the place Turner hurt them the most. He just does not command a defense, even if his keeping skills are otherwise pretty ok.
     
  3. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sels is someone who he can beat out but the likely scenario is they bring in someone new who is better than Sels.
     
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  4. dark knight

    dark knight Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 15, 1999
    Club:
    Leicester City FC
    I don’t think that’s all that likely given financial constraints and they have signed him for 3 years I think? For better or worse they may be stuck with him.
     
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  5. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    It was a 3.5 year deal at about 6-7 mill if the rags can be believed. Sels is 32 (Feb) and has been almost 100% injury free since recovering from his achilles rupture in 20/21. Can't imagine they get enough for him to move him, and he doesn't appear to have been such a liability that they would take a hit on a GK again. They have bigger fish to fry. It would be really surprising if they didn't ride Sels again, given their finances and other needs, but who knows. NF does odd things.
     
  6. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That’s like when the Union had like 3 excellent keepers on their roster at the same time. They got Algeria’s keeper from 2010, when they were already set.
     
  7. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hard to say but they could bring someone in on loan or on a free. And they will have some room to spend this summer even if it’s not a ton (and more if they make some sales).
     
  8. zlatan_but_a_car

    Botswana Meat Commission FC
    United States
    Oct 16, 2017
  9. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    How will they have room to spend this summer? All reports I've seen have them facing further deductions unless they offload a bunch of salaries in the 2 week window from June 14 to EOM. CH-O is supposed to be going to Spurs - or at least he is wanted there. That will help. Mangala will bring them 15 million. I'm not sure the exact number they need to hit, but I don't think they will have a lot of money to splash this summer - and they will need some outfield help if they sell CH-O or others. If they can sell Turner, things might change, and they get Hennesy's salary off the books this summer, I think, but otherwise spending on another fair-to-middling keeper seems silly, but, as we've all noted, NF does odd things.

    Also very possible they need a new coach as well.
     
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  10. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is one reason why you can't be a strict adherent to this stat, it's only one of the guides (arguably the best).

    "When it comes to cutting out crosses, Turner stopped 10.1% of those into his box compared to just 4.9% for Sels. The Belgian’s poor command of his box is also shown by his concession of nine goals from corner kicks, compared to four for Turner."

    So you don't come out of your net, allow a header on the doorstep, and then throw your hands up and proclaim "what could I do"?

    Another thing I didn't see that article mention was Matt's comparative propensity to stop shots before they start on the ground too. FBRef had him w/ over 4* as many defensive actions outside the box! Again, Sels could say what could I do in regards to a 1 v 1, but the answer is to not allow it as much in the 1st place like Matt.

    When you see a gulf at over 10% in terms of save %, this is why. Over a sizable enough sample, you can't just chalk that up to bad luck. A significant portion of that, beyond the modest psxg+/- gap, is Matt's comparative sweeping/claiming aggression.
     
  11. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    As @dark knight pointed out, their financial constraints are going to put some obstacles in the way of that. Otherwise they'll have another season with a points deduction.

    They have 3 GKs who are/were, on paper, equally good when they signed them and on quite high salaries as a result - £1.8 million for Sels, £2 million for Matt and £2.3 million for Vlachodomis according to Capology. One of them will have to be moved on before another is signed
     
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  12. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think they're satisfied w/ any of them. So they'll shuffle, regardless if they have extra $.

    Who exits is a matter of who's sellable. They might try to move all to the top teams in their respective domestic leagues, and replace them w/ a new set of adequate options on paper.
     
  13. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    But which MLS sides pay GKs £2 million a season? Belgian sides £1.8 million? Greek sides £2.3 million?

    They arguably overpaid for Matt - they certainly did for Vlachodomis. They're going to be hard to shift
     
  14. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    NF is going to have to take hits on players - clubs know they are facing the financial hammer. Mangala's fee is agreed, I believe 15 mill. Hennessey is out of contract this summer, I think, so he'll be off the books (They were paying 4 keepers last season, I think.) The need a decent back-up for Wood - or someone who can score from midfield/wing if/when Wood is out... Murillo could bring a lot of $ if they want to get rid of him, tho he's a great prospect... NF doesn't have a lot of choice, as far as I read it. They'll have 2 weeks to clean stuff up or lose more points. Other clubs know that. It's Summer Sales days.
     
  15. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    Are they allowed to buy contracts out?
     
  16. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good post. Given ALL of the surrounding circumstances, unless Forest is really lucky, their best hope is to sell or loan out a keeper, but still be on the hook for a lot of the salary. Still, getting half of one of those salaries off the books is a million pounds.
     
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  17. zlatan_but_a_car

    Botswana Meat Commission FC
    United States
    Oct 16, 2017
    I don't think so, I'm pretty sure they need to *sell* to show that they are profitable enough to be "sustainable". They could try and negotiate a buy-out that would at least see them losing less money than if they paid the player their full salary, but usually the player needs to be interested in moving for that to be a viable path forward (unfortunately, being a nice guy / team player only matters on the pitch...), and they'd much rather see green on the balance sheets and not just "less red".

    edit: I guess, technically speaking, they are "allowed" to buy-out contracts, it just doesn't go as far in terms of proving their sustainability.
     
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  18. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, they're all internationals, 2 clear starters, 1 a backup when everyone's available. So they're going to be marketable, and considered among the top keepers in their domestic leagues.

    In MLS, Burki gets 1.7 m/season, so a club could pay Matt's fee, or a little less, if Forest are willing to take a minor hit for a better replacement at the price in their eyes.

    In the Jupiler League, Mignolet's making 3.7m Euros a season. If Brugge isn't ready to move, maybe Anderlecht would come in for half to nab Sels?

    In Greece, Olympiacos are spending that much or more on a few players, & their keeper over half. So maybe they'd splurge for the Greek int'l.

    Move 2 out, keep the other as projected backup, and take another crack on the market. I think Vlach should be moved over anyone, but he also might be the trickiest.
     
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  19. zlatan_but_a_car

    Botswana Meat Commission FC
    United States
    Oct 16, 2017
    I don't know about his family life, and I know that he's a Greek international, but I believe that vlach was born and raised in Germany and came out of Stuttgart's academy FWIW

    edit: yes, apparently he played with the German youth NTs including appearances at the U21 Euros and filed a 1-time-switch to rep Greece at the senior level.
     
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  20. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    They can but they may not. Not under PSR (profit & sustainability rules) anyway. Otherwise it's another season with a points deduction
     
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  21. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    Are there any clubs putting out feelers for Turner? Who can Forest dump him on? For sure, the Greek who played 5 matches is on his way out.
     
  22. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    Unless he's coming to MLS, we won't hear anything until August IMO. He's too low-profile, at a low profile club and the window is closed anyway so there'll be a lot going on in the background but nothing will break until a deal can be processed.

    There's also the fact that if Vlach moves, Forest will still need a #2 for Sels and Matt fits that profile quite well. It's what he was doing at Arsenal after all and anyway, for a GK who's had a case of the yips, a spell riding the pine while he sorts out his mental game isn't necessarily a bad thing. It certainly wasn't for Ethan, as the last 6 months have shown.
     
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  23. zlatan_but_a_car

    Botswana Meat Commission FC
    United States
    Oct 16, 2017
    Because Forest need to move players before the June 30th FFP deadline, I think we'll hear about it sooner if they're planning on trying to move Matt.
     
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  24. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    FYP but, yeah, good point.
     
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  25. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    Man City, Real Madrid, and Detroit City all preparing strong offers.
     

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