Matt Turner at a palace made of crystals. (Olf Nottingham Forest)

18 (Kamada) on CP had an interesting game. He had a bad giveaway that led to the Villa goal, a bad giveaway that led to Turner's stretch save at 4:40, then scored the game winner.

It would have been nice if Turner made the save on that goal, but 8 saves and a win isn't a bad day at the office. Wish he was in a different situation.

 

A big part of the case for Turner being as good as (or better than) Sels last season, was that Sels had the worst shot stopping stats in the league last season of any starting keeper, over a comparable sample size to Turner, who some people liked to point out had pretty bad shot stopping numbers himself at the same club.

This season, however, Sels is in the top half of the table among starting keepers according to the advanced shot stopping metrics. Unless his form completely collapses in the next two months, he's going to have much better numbers in the first half of this season than he did in the last half of last season (or than Turner did in his time as the number 1).

That said, that turnaround also suggests that the shot-stopping metrics just might not be all that informative over even half a season of play, and you might need a larger sample size to draw meaningful conclusions from them. Or that they might actually be more dependent on (or subtly impacted by) the form and quality of a keeper's teammates than advertised.

 

SKY Highlights
https://www.skysports.com/football/...lla-1-2-crystal-palace-carabao-cup-highlights

Granted, the was partially unsighted on the goal and he did get a hand to it but it was a weak hand when a strong hand would have saved it. That makes it goalkeeping error I'm afraid.

The second half save was a good one, but also nothing special.

They're both fairly routine saves for an EPL-level starter.

 

That would’ve been nice save territory but hardly an obvious error. I see goals like that in the league most weeks.

 

I have not seen a ton of NF this season, but Sels has looked better when I've seen him, but the Forrest D is much tighter this year - and, funnily enough, he's still near the bottom of the EPL for crosses. Sels was, is, and will always be better with his feet, but he doesn't command the box on crosses well - not even as well as Turner. But in the limited minutes I've seen him, Sels looks much more like he belongs this season.

 

It's one of the problems with soccer stats in general. Even a shot taken from the exact same spot by the exact same player can have a different likelihood of going in if the defender closing the player down is van Dijk (or Milenkovic - esp if it's a header...) shutting you down, versus Niakhate or Boly. There are so many variables in footie. Perhaps they wash out over a big sample set, but take any keeper, have them play half the season behind Pool's defense and 1/2 behind Sotons and they will have very different stats - even on shots from the exact same situation.

 

I know the extra moment it would take me to realize it was Jhon shooting - not John - might prove fatal.

I still believe that mostly explains Willian's productivity - don't underestimate that kind of advantage.

 

I don't have a problem w/ Turner on the goal. It more showed Duran's talent that he can have a ball behind him so shaped to shoot far post (if at all) & quickly snap it to the near post. It got onto Turner rapidly, thru bodies (possible deflection), to a surprising location. Just because you get your hand on it doesn't mean it should be saved. Arguably did a good job to even do that & the pace in conjunction w/ not being right at him is going to eat up most keepers even at that level, if they get near it initially.

As far as the saves he did make, they all looked fairly routine, even the diving one which makes it appear more spectacular than it is. From distance & little to shoot at. Just watching the highlights, he looks like a neutral factor, independent of ball-playing which is of course usually a weakness.

 

Happy for Matt! I really am.


....but still hoping for the US can develop some GKs fast. We still are not at the level needed.

 

How?

 

Dual nat recruiting of course, hand out passports like candy.
In all seriousness though, have to drop the subject. Mod said I am out of bounds.

Good for Matt - still should have left for mainland Europe to try and become GK #1 somewhere, but maybe that is on the table for next season....

 

What I heard is that NF for the longest time refused to loan out Turner because they wanted to recoup some of the money they paid for him…and then at the very very end of the transfer window, NF relented but it was too late for Turner to get a spot somewhere else in Europe (those clubs already filled their vacant keeper position after NF refused to loan Turner). Only the Palace loan was workable with the window just about to close.
Dunno how true all this is…but I that’s the story from Call it What You Want. Or was it Total Soccer Show? One of those podcasts said it.

 

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Sels is better than Turner at this point. Turner’s weakness with his feet prevents him from ever being the starter at a top club. And his shot stopping seems to have declined in the last two years. He needs to move to the continent and find a manager that doesn’t want to build out of the back.

 

Seals will also revert to the mean across the season, but his D is better and Turner just doesn’t have enough possession soccer sense to seal the deal. He can be useful as long as a team plays to his long ball strength, but that’s not many EPL teams.

 

A loan to the Championship it is then

 

Would have been neat to see an American keeper on the continent again. Steffen was the last one.

 

For reference:

Also NF is in third right now after 25% of the season. Which is one area where I agree they will revert to the mean. But they are a better team across the board, including in goal, this season.