Matt Turner ahead of Zack Steffen as US national team goalkeeper?

Thanks, but those numbers are the only data point anyone has brought up about Matt Turner. He's clearly excellent in this statistic, and Steffen is not. Are there no other statistics available for goalkeepers? I'm asking because I don't know where folks find these sorts of things and am hoping someone will pop in here with further concrete data that might give us insight into our goalkeeping pool (beyond the eye test and club heirarchy test).

 

There's passing.

https://fbref.com/en/players/4a51ba65/Matt-Turner#all_stats_passing_dom_lg
https://fbref.com/en/players/42130443/Zack-Steffen#all_stats_passing_dom_lg

But they are suspiciously similar. Both at about 60% for long passes, Steffen passes it longer a higher percentage.

 

I saw Matt Doyle link to this on twitter:

While I *slightly* disagree with the assessment of the goal he conceded today: @johnspacemuller's bigger point is right: check out those shot stopping percentiles in MLS. Steffen's biggest strengths lie elsewhere, but it's still an issue long/short term. https://t.co/lIIGollU7f pic.twitter.com/gEsr8JOUum

— Carl Carpenter Videos (@C_Carpenter14) September 25, 2020

Can't vouch for the veracity or logic of those stats, but they seem to suggest that: Turner is a much better shot stopper; Steffen is slightly better at completing passes into danger, but a lot better at passing into situations likely to produce positive outcomes; both keepers are equally aggressive coming off their line; and Steffen is noticeably but not enormously better at claiming crosses and high balls.

 

Good find @KALM That graph matches my eye test. Steffen plays like another outfielder.

However, there are more intangibles yet according to this article https://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/premier-league-goalkeeper-stats-analytics/

What about commanding the box and organizing the defense?

 

In the end, the question is less which keeper is better but which keeper matches the style that will work for us going forward. Last year the argument was that a possession-first keeper wouldn't play well with our squad.

Now that we have players in Barcelona, Bayern, Juventus and various clubs in Germany, has this changed? I would think so.

 

This highlights so many issues with MLS media and fans. They overhype players on a regular basis that it is hard to take them seriously. A player has a a decent game and he is the best and should be starting for the usmnt.

They over use and misuse statistics. I haven't watched Turner and am not going to watch a Revs game. I was curious and watched some his highlights. He looks to be a good shot stopper... has the physical tools, sound technique, etc. I also find it hard to believe he is that much better of a shot stopper than Steffen, who I have always viewed as a good shot stopper. It is also interesting to see people compare two players stats over different time periods. Steffen's stats don't show any of the the improvement he had made since spending a year at Dusseldorf and now at Man City.

There is so much more to goalkeeping that shot stopping and the other statistics recently provided. How do people factor in in that Steffen comes off as an incredibly calming influence on his teammates? Or that he has been commended for how well he deals with mistakes? Turner may be better but I don't see how anyone could make a reasonable argument like that at this point. Hopefully Turner get a shot in January and can at least start to see how he plays in a lower level national team game.

 

I don't know much about keeping specifically other than that they love to yell at me a lot and nothing is their fault. What I do not understand at all and would love an explanation for is if it is so clear statistically that Turner is better than Steffan and they played in the same league and are roughly the same age with Turner being slightly older, why did so many people think it was a better idea to pay Steffan a lot more money for the same job and why is Turner still making jack shit to play on a bad MLS team?

Lots of people all over the world get paid to find good soccer players and bring them to their team and lots of them seem pretty good at it. Lots of people just within MLS have that job with their respective clubs, so something here is not adding up to me.

Matt turner makes $75,987 annually. When Zack Steffan was also playing in the same league, he was making double that at $140,000. Since then one of the best coaches in the world decided it would be a good idea to sign Steffan and pay him over $1,000,000 per year to play soccer for him, whilst Turner was not even lured away by a rival domestic franchise and decided to accept a new contract at New England just a year ago, that again pays him $75,987 annually, that was the same season wherein Matt Turner finished 5th in MLS goalkeeper of the year voting.

Meanwhile Steffan has played very well in the German Bundesliga and for the USMNT during that time and been the unquestioned number 1 for your national team. During this time Matt Turner received two call ups and is yet to actually receive a cap, from a coaching staff whose entire basis for being hired is their MLS experience and knowledge of the domestic player.

Yet I am to believe that this sudden Matt Turner is better than Steffan nonsense is to be taken seriously? I don't take it seriously at all, am I missing something?

 

Thanks! This is good. Steffen's passing numbers are a bit better than Turner's. Interestingly, they both had a significant drop in long pass completed percencentage in 2019 and then a bounce back in 2020. The number of total passes, medium and long, that Steffen attempts are a bit higher than what Turner does. Steffen's long-ball attempts increased dramatically at Dusseldorf (from 19.7 attempts/90 to 26.3/90). Turner has been remarkably consistent in this department, averaging right around 20 attempts/90 in each of his 3 MLS seasons. I presume that club playing style can affect this number a lot, but completion rate will be more steadily pegged to a goalie's passing quality. Turner is at 58.1% over 3 seasons, Steffen at 64.3 over 3 seasons.

 

I get your points, and they are well-reasoned.

When Turner's contract was up, given the current CBA rules as I understand them to be, he hadn't been in the league long enough to be a free agent. If he didn't have outside suitors (he didn't, it seems) then his only option was to sign with New England again for whatever "bonafide" offer they made, which was exactly what they'd been paying him.

Clearly, though, the scouting experts see things in Steffen that they don't (or didn't, at least) in Turner. Steffen is 2 years younger and was putting up similar numbers so that's strongly in his favor.

Turner is clearly statistically better in several categories on which goalkeepers are judged and for which statistics are kept. Steffen is clearly statistically better in several other categories.

You can "find it hard to believe" that Turner is a much better shot-stopper than Steffen, but that's exactly what the statistics show quite clearly. The nuanced details you mention (his calming presence, dealing with mistakes) are something that isn't in the stats. That's purely eye test (mostly for players and coaches who see it in person on the ground).

Let me be clear: I'm not one who's saying that Turner is better than Steffen. I'm only trying to discuss our goalkeeping options for the NT, since we've got Steffen (clearly number one right now) and a bunch of re-runs who've never really been great and don't look like they ever will be (Guzan, Sean Johnson, Bill Hamid), and a guy who looked really promising but hasn't played in a long time and doesn't look like he intends to change his situation (Horvath).

 

I don't even think Matt Doyle thinks Turner is definitively better than Steffen.

I do think it's a really interesting point, and we should pay attention to Turner because that shot stopping can be really valuable. And he should be called in.

I think people are highly mistaken if they think that the international market for any players, much less players at this level, is any kind of efficient.

 

What you said about Turner is sensible, if someone said he’s our #2 I’d say sure. Thats not how this discussion has been framed, or at all consistent with the title of this thread.

The international market is a very useful data point, along with many others. When the discrepancy between two players is as vast and clear as that between these two it’s pretty efficient imo. I’d genuinely be curious to hear an explanation for the difference in these two though.

 

I think everyone knows that Matt Doyle is always going to make statements counter to the conventional wisdom. That's who he is and, almost certainly why MLS, the league, pays him to represent them on their website. I think he's 50/50 with his seemingly random picks, though, and he certainly brings attention and criticism to whoever he decided to bring to fore. I don't think he's dumb or crazy.

As to how efficient the scouting is, that's hard to really know. Sometimes clubs take players that no one would have thought were world class (I'm looking at you Alphonso Davies) and they become overnight superstars. Goalkeepers are definitely in a different boat, but there are always gems at every position. Like our history books tell us, it wasn't real until the Europeans "discovered" it. I'm not sure the Revs could "discover" a player on their discovery list.

 

We should probably be able to get positions posited to start a conversation to the more interesting one behind it.

It's a useful data point, but it's far from liquid and efficient. Aside from the very top teams, most teams don't have the actual financial resources to scout the US, much less take a financial risk on a player like Turner. It's a big deal that some Bundesliga teams have a single North American scout, and there's always articles about even reasonably wealthy teams using Football Manager as a scouting device.

But even if you get past that, the transfer budgets of most these teams can't justify taking a flyer on a player from North America period because of the perceived risk. It's something we will get over, but haven't yet. Turner is going to cost someone -- he's a cheap asset to a team owned by Robert Kraft, who is worth $6.6B.

If you're even Dusseldorf -- who couldn't even buy Steffen -- you can't risk a $5M transfer fee on a dude like Turner when you can find a German who might not be better but will be cheaper and the devil you know.

Dussledorf has four transfers over $1M in the last 10 years or so, and all of them are attackers.

People tend to think of the market as like the Top 40 teams in the world, but it's not that AT all.

There's inherent risk and intertia in any market, and it's always working against US players. New England doesn't have any reason to sell, so unless Turner is pushing them, or someone LOVES him, then eh, it's going to look way farther off than it is.

I would say this -- shot stopping seems more important in international play, and traditional more for a defensive team like the US has traditionally been. Distribution, which is where Steffen definitely beats out Turner, is more important in club environments and for better teams.

Frankly, in terms of labor markets, there's a TON of guys who could move and would reshuffle if transfer costs, risk and nationality weren't barriers. Alfredo Morales was a Bundesliga player last year and a 2. Bundesliga player this year. No one is buying him, and Dusseldorf couldn't easily upgraded him with players from even MLS last year. But it would have cost money, and the risk+cost wasn't worth it.

For example, Alexander Ring is a VASTLY better player than Alfredo Morales and he was last year. But he wasn't in the BL and he's not now. But if Dusseldorf tried to sell him to NYCFC in exchange for Ring, they'd be laughed out of the building.

 

Kepa was benched multiple times and has been replaced. Not a good analogy. Everton also just bought a GK for competition.

 

Turner started to play soccer at age of 16, by that time Steffen was a star on YNTs. Basically Turner's career started when Bruce came to NY. He is still improving, Steffen is a finished product.

 

Less than a year.

 

i was referring to pickford. stop trying so hard.

 

I doubt that. He's getting world class instruction now.

 

From a 2022 perspective, I don't see how Matt Turner gets the European experience he would need to overtake Steffen. We would agree that 2026 is open.

 

Trying so hard? You made a bad analogy and I explained why. It took all of 5 seconds. Trust me I didn’t try hard.

 

Ok, but please try less hard next time.

 

Dammit Tim you’re right... next time I’ll take 4 no wait I’ll take 3 seconds to explain why he chose a bad analogy.

 

This tells us that Turner will never have the foot skills that are expected of a top goalkeeper. The idea that Steffen is a finished product real ********ing stupid. Maybe if he was just hanging out in Columbus that might be the case, but he had just moved to a much higher level that will force him to raise his game (just like when he went from Pittsburgh to Columbus and then to Dusseldorf). A 25 yo keeper being a finished product is even dumber than the topic of this thread.

 

I think this is the main advantage. Steffen's reflexes won't get faster, but he can improve in many other areas.

The point has already been made about the superior level of competition Steffen will face, though a llot of that advantage will vary with the amount of game time Steffen gets.

But I also think about the time Steffen will spend in practice, even at lighter moments, trying to stop De Bruyne's free kicks, or trying to outwit Aguero, or trying to out-quick Sterling, or Jesus, or Torres, or Foden, etc.

Watching and competing with Ederson, working hard to improve.

Participating in video analysis sessions alongside Pep Guardiola.

These things are almost impossible to compare//calculate, but they are akin to receiving an advanced education.

If Steffen's holds up physically - my main concern - he's in a great spot.

 

Its an advantage that he will need to take out into the world at some point. This year and maybe one more (would lean on just 1 tho) would be ok to stay as a back up and take the domestic cups but after that he has to go and play. GK is just too different from a field player.