Watch 41:50 for about a minute and tell me if you think it's a referee who is in control and setting the tone or not.
Firstly, I left a word out...it should have read "by tomorrow we will find out ..." But more importantly, I was simply carrying on from your own logic and comments per below. I hope that clarifies any confusion. "You can tell he sort of doesn't want to give the second one, but I suspect FIFA is particularly sensitive in instruction with blows to the head right now. And when a top VAR sends him down for something like this that is off-the-ball, you know that they are following instruction."
The red card to Mexico is actually an incredibly dramatic moment which almost nobody in the world will pick up on - Sampaio really flew very close to the sun here. In most leagues/competitions around the world, having two interventions will see you 'rejected' and lose consideration for the next round of league fixtures or be eliminated from the tournament. FIFA very very clearly used this standard in the last Women's WC, a competition which (it felt like) was beget by a large number of interventions. Now: I am not so naive to think that had Sampaio given a YC in this incident, and suffered a second intervention (I'm certain that Gallo would have intervened) that the favourite referee of one of the most important refereeing politicians would have been excommunicated - but Claus is breathing down the neck of both Brazilians, and clearly it would have made Sampaio's tournament much, much more complicated. You can see he reaches for the RC immediately having read the incident perfectly, but then he's talking to Pires, doesn't seem in full control of the incident, and even reaches to his YC pocket when he first beckons the Mexican over. I was convinced that he had changed his mind, but Iin the end, he stuck with his instinct and made a brilliant call. In those hectic seconds, Sampaio was in serious danger of being rejected!
I did pickup on the indecision and likely the input he was receiving. Didn’t really connect it to the idea of a second OFR at the time because, well, initially I wasn’t convinced it would have been sent down.
Well if you read my complete post, I said on first look (live) I thought there was cover. (I was watching the game as a fan, not a ref...thought the defenders were further down the field). On the replay, I could see there was no cover (as I stated).
I don't think it matters in this case. I think the attacker would have been able to get to the ball and get a shot off. Not a great shot, tough angle, but a shot none the less. i.e. I don't think they would have scored, but it was a goal scoring opportunity.
Really? Sorry...it simply indicated that there would be a few more games completed with perhaps some evidence (or not) of whether there are FIFA instructions (per you thoughts on the matter) It really wasn't supposed to be a confusing and/or debatable point.
Well, to be clear then, I thought you were perhaps suggesting that FIFA would say whether the calls were correct or not, like MLS and EPL can do in their weekly reviews. I'm not trying to be a jerk about it, but "tomorrow' was very specific. But to the point, I think two DOGSOs and one VAR VC (which, as @RedStar91 pointed out, didn't happen in 2018 or 2022 at all) in one match is just one of those anomalies that so rarely happens that we can't expect to make a comparison to anything in the near-term.
It seems that the NFL Rules "analysts" go through mock sessions to make themselves more presentable to a TV audience and the Fox guys get minimal (if any) training. I'd love to see him or Machnik follow a format such as: 1) What the game expects (yellow, red, etc) in a play they're discussing AND 2) what they believe will be the final decision and why, based on the officiating. Instead, I hear a bunch of rambling that doesn't help an average fan understand and get a heads-up on what the expectation for the VAR announcement might be instead of vague comments such as "I think". Only improvement from Mark I've seen is a little less mumbling where in his first year it sounded as if he just walked out of a pub.
Is it really the case that the first intervention for an off-the-ball incident is considered the same as one for a clear error (like what would have happened had he only shown yellow for the second DOGSO)? That doesn't seem defensible, but perhaps detractors would say that the former implies a measurable loss of control.
I'll let @Mikael_Referee give his own, likely more informed, answer on the bigger question. But I would note in this case that the incident was directly in Sampaio's line of vision. It was "off-the-ball," but only just and it wasn't behind his back at all. Maybe he gets a pass on the VC; I don't know. But as has been noted in this thread already, if there was a foul going the other way, he did miss that.
As Mass Ref said, it was directlyin his line of view. We saw the foul on the ref view camera. I wonder of that camera will be used for training on what should be in your line of sight going forward.