As the Saints go Marsching In: Jesse Marsch rumored to lead race for Southampton job

I concur good sir!

 

Burnley‘s run in is so much easier than Leeds also, but they are just so dire when it comes to scoring.I just can‘t see them grabbing 3 points often, no matter who they play.

 

New manager bounce is in full effect for Burnley as they beat Southampton 2-0 to get within 5 points of Leeds and 4 points of Everton (who have a match in hand). Still an uphill climb for them, but they still have a chance given they have the easiest remaining schedule out of all the relegation battling teams.

 

Within 5 of Leeds, 1 of Everton.

It's Leeds 33, Everton 29, Burnley 28 right now, with Everton having a game in-hand over the other two.

538 has the relegation odds of those 3 at:

Leeds - 14%
Everton - 43%
Burnley - 45%

 

Correct. My mistake. 1 point of Everton. Everton is 4 points behind Leeds.

 

That metric keeps having to readjust a lot. It doesn't factor in things like trends.

Southampton are a much worse team than they were earlier in the season. So this always projected as a win for Burnley, while 538 probably thought it was a draw.

Next up Burnley is at home against Wolves, who are 8th in the table. But recently they lost at home to Leeds themselves, and on the road to Newcastle. So that's going to be a lot more winnable match than 538 suggests.

Then Burnley's facing a Watford side who's been bad all season and is having exceedingly less to play for.

Subsequently, in the friendly confines, the Clarets face Villa, who've lost 4 straight.

This is a major opportunity for Burnley, in comparison to Leeds, who faces a murderer's row, of teams who aren't in comparatively poor form.

Leeds is likely going to have to pick up pts here and there along the way, thru this gauntlet, to hold off Burnley. Otherwise Leeds will have to get help from an Everton side who they're 4 pts up on and have a pretty tough schedule as well.

Don't want to be at the mercy of your rivals, so hopefully what we saw in that second half v. Watford was an adjustment by Jesse to have an outlet at fw, along w/ an improvement from the return of Phillips.

 

42% Burnley win, 31% Southampton win, 27% draw

These sorts of models adjust a lot towards the end of a season (or while computing election outcomes on Election Night) because the number of variables and potential outcomes pretty rapidly diminish.

 

42% is not a probability. Draw or loss had a greater chance to them - 58%. The median result to them was a draw. 538 were underrating Burnley's chances. It was more like 65%, a probable win, at home, the way Southampton are playing.

Yes, and beforehand it's not factoring in things like: trends, lack of motivation, or survey takers not wanting to admit to voting for a publicly unpopular candidate.

It's typically going to underrate the underdog on paper's chances, because the more variables exist, the greater chance for something being unaccounted for to swing results wildly. The favorite wants as little change as possible.

We saw this play out with the US in qualifying. The metrics were giving the US a virtual assurance, 99%, of qualifying. In the end, they avoided the playoff, since they "stole" a pt in Mexico. The metric didn't see Costa Rica sweeping the final window because they were on a roll, Costa Rica at their house owns the US, & Canada would be playing for less. It shouldn't have been a shock the US needed to get decent results to survive, as does Leeds.

 

It actually does.

"Importance is a measure of how much the outcome of the match will change each team’s statistical outlook on the season."

"As of 2018, our match predictions incorporate importance in two ways :

1. When a match is more important to one team than the other, that team tends to outperform expectations, with its boost in performance relative to how much more important the match is to them.
2. If a match isn’t important to either team, uncertainty in the outcome of the match increases."

 

But they wouldn't have a good sense of that right now when making their projections. It's one of those adjustments they'd have to make at the later date.

 

Poor result for Leeds of course. I thought the best Burnley could do in these 3 make up games was 4 points and they hit that mark unfortunately. Tough 3 game run for Leeds coming up and they need a point somewhere in there. If Burnley can actually start scoring those last two matches will decide it.

 

The last thing I want to see is Leeds going in to their last match v Brentford needing to win.

That's probably what will happen.

 

Burnley making it scary. Damn.

 

Everton lost today.

Tomorrow's match v Palace is a big one. Better not see that nervous energy displayed in the Watford game.

 

Very sloppy game so far, still 0-0 in the 72nd. Palace are ramping up the pressure, though it hasn't resulted in any good chances in the second half.

 

Ends 0-0. Crystal Palace looked better than Leeds, at least in the last 20 minutes

 

Yeah looking at that one leeds should be happy with that draw. Palace was better imo

burnley have made it snug with Everton and Leeds for that last relegation spot. Furthermore, burnley have watford next game. Hopefully they have a little slip up there like the Norwich game

 

That was a good ass game. Palace much more entertaining, probably deserved a goal but Leeds showed great commitment and togetherness throughout. An excellent game for the neutral!

Palace, with their attacking players, and Viera, are gonna be fun again next year.

 

Burnley has made this quite difficult for Leeds. Leeds have an insane schedule coming up so they will have to rely on Everton and Burnley dropping points.

 

Yeah Burnley became a problem. It’s gonna come down to those last 2 matches.

 

I'm curious to see if Villa gets dragged into the relegation fight. They're in awful form and have two matches left against Burnley, as well as matches against City and Liverpool. If Villa slips up against Norwich, and Burnley takes all 6 points...

 

Curious how marsch will strengthen Leeds assuming they survive. Forward seems the most obvious spot.

 

Been a problem since Bamford got hurt. James isn't a striker. There's no real target man up front.

 

Lets survive first.