Well, we changed coaches to a world class one and those players are still struggling. Now we're moving onto a vague 'environment'?I know -- US Soccer makes them fly in middle seats and the food in camp sucks! I knew US Soccer was the issue. It's fun to watch people do ANYTHING but question their base assumptions.
It’s funny to watch you accuse others of not questioning their base assumptions whilst doing the same again and again. Class players are better than try hard spare parts. Just as Dest was miles better than your boy Cannon, the same is true of Tillman and Brendo. We have a much better coach now and with more of the A squad available and not injured or resting as much both the team and Tillman will kick ass. This stuff isn’t nearly as complicated as the expected goals, minus club ELO rating multiplied to the power of aggregate assists would have you believe.
Tillman has a total of 614 minutes with the US team. Only 283 of those minutes were in competitive games. Less than 150 minutes have been with Poch. How concrete could one's opinion about Malik with the US team be? In any case, it seems more reasonable to project his potential based on his club form, weighing Champions League play more heavily, more than on his limited national team minutes. For the record, he has more than twice as many minutes playing in UCL than he does with the US.
Oh, please, pray tell me, what base assumption I am not challenging. This of course is meaningless, which makes it all the funnier. There's no definition of this, either formally or across people. It's a generic term you're using because you don't actually have a good argument at all.
Class player = one whose capable of thinking and playing quality soccerball, particularly in tight spaces, is press resistant and generally competent as an all around soccerball player. Ie, Dest and Tillman Not class/tryhard hustle donkey = Falls down a lot, runs hard for good and ill, turnover machine, can’t combine well with others, ie. Brendan Aaronson and Cannon.
I am not writing off Malik Tillman. He's very skilled and he's got great physical tools. He's young, and I think in the right set up, he'll do pretty well. I am simply not placing him at the top of the depth chart over players who have played better for the national team because of his club play. I have quite a few thoughts about why his play hasn't translated so far -- and let's not kid ourselves, it's not just not getting goals and assists, the balance of his minutes have simply not been good -- but the question becomes: The Gold Cup is our last real camp of any length before the World Cup. At what point do you play players who also do well at club and have played better for the US over someone who hasn't? As a parallel, we've given tons of minutes to Josh Sargent. Then he got hurt and we didn't see him for a while. He's been killing it at club. He's only had a couple (maybe 3?) windows since he really seemed to take a leap at club. But he didn't play very well for us in those windows and he didn't score. At what point does he drop down the depth chart? How many chances does he get versus other players who outplay him for the US? I know it's a small sample. But after this dual window of June and Gold Cup, we have like five windows to the World Cup. This isn't a principle-based argument so much as a practical. Roster spots and playing time are a zero sum game. There are lots of legit reasons as to why club form doesn't translate (whether you think mitigating conditions or effort or whatever) .... But how long can you afford to wait? What's best for the team? Is it fair to the other players who do perform and how does that affect the locker room? I still think Josh Sargent is a better striker than Brian White. But people have got to start to question now, right? I know Sargent is a far better all around player than Agyemang, but the reality is that if I need a goal, Patrick is more likely to create one than Sargent for the US. And all of them are well behind Balo, Pepi and Wright, IMO.
I was looking at the Eredivisie tables the other day for scorers and assisters. 5 of the top 10 scorers are on PSV. 6 of the top 10 assisters are on PSV. So.............................yeah, PSV scores for fun in that league. I don't really know what to make of the g+a numbers for USMNTers on that team. They've scored 100 goals to Ajax's 65. They have a goal difference of +62. When somebody say's Tillman does X, Y, and Z for PSV: Why doesn't he do that for the USMNT? I'm thinking collectively the team Tillman plays on is miles better than the opposition most weeks. How he plays against Heracles has almost no relevance to the USMNT. Its the same thing I feel about CCV at Celtic. Doesn't mean much to me. He's not particularly challenged. [Ajax's collapse is one for the ages. Makes no sense.]
So we hold production on dominant teams against our players now? Sensible. As to how that translates to the USMNT, we are the PSV… or Ajax of CONCACAF, if anything this flat track bully argument, (which I disagree with) us an argument to start him in this GC. Conversly, y’all are advocating for what? Aaronson who doesn’t produce in a not particularly better league, for another team better than their competition?
Take a look at the Championship where leads similarly smashed all comers with 95 goals for and 30 against. Meanwhile our “CAM” there contributed hardly anything, was mainly a passenger and never gets called out for his team being dominant.
Mind you, have you incorporated the difference in those stats of a PSV with and without MT? Those stats are remarkebly different. In other words, PSV declines to the average without MT, but exceeds it with him. So it's MT, who makes the difference and PSV the team that eclips the rest. When you conclude that, it's not about Tillman profiting from a better PSV around him, or an Eredivisie weakness (which is false anyway), but Tillman being the one who lifts the team to the untouchable level, then him not performing in the USMNT is on the coaching and not on him.
Meh. I think Tillman's issue with the USMNT is just that we haven't found his role yet. This is Pochettino's job. If Tillman is the "straw that stirs the drink" with PSV as you guys are suggesting, he's not that with the USMNT. Pulisic is that with the USMNT. So what is Tillman's role? We haven't figured it out yet. Tillman really hasn't played that much with the USMNT, and very little with the "A" group. His central midfield partners in his most recent start with the USMNT against Mexico were far from the best USMNT.
FYI Girona, Sporting, Shaktar, and Brest have far better players than the USMNT according to this well informed Dutch man.
Why did you leave out from the clubs the highlighted ones? Because these don't fit your narrative?: Liverpool (thuis), Paris Saint-Germain (uit), Juventus (uit), Shakhtar Donetsk (uit), Sporting Portugal (thuis), Rode Ster Belgrado (uit), Girona (thuis) en Stade Brest (thuis), Arsenal. I challenge you to come up with players in one of the lines of the opponents of the USA, Malik played against, that had better ones than those 4 clubs. I'm pretty sure of these four clubs all players in each line is better than those MT faced with the USMNT. I'm also sure those clubs you did mention, in at least every line has at least one player better than those the USA played against.
I left those out because they are not notable in this context. They are the teams everyone would think of, not the other half of teams Malik faced.
Basically he has had some variance/luck go in his favor while the underlying stats, that are more predictive for future offensive production, are quite weak for an attacker.
I don't necessarily subscribe to the "luck" explanation. How many years has Pepi been "lucky" with his xG overperformance?
Different players can produce different long term finishing rates. The very very best handful of players outperform their xG by 20-35% over the long term. In a very small sample (for xG performance you need 100-150 shots and Malik has taken only 16 shots in the CL) Malik is overperforming his npxG by 200%! He’s at .07 npxG and .21 npG per 90. That’s absolutely just variance. One of his CL assists was a square ball for a long shot. That’s variance. Malik can still be much better than the average high level attacker and this will still be luck/variance. Pepi has 43 npG on 32.5 npxG from 213 shots. That’s 32% overperfomance. That’s not luck, it’s superior execution. However, all that overperformance is from lower tier leagues while the outliers I’m talking about did it in the top 5 leagues.
CL actual /90 .51 G .38 A Go check your spreadsheets and then let us know again what the champions league stats, actual or expected, are for Brendan Aaronson, or whoever it is that you are advocating to start over Tillman.