Upsets happen. Real Madrid lost at home to FC Sheriff Tiraspol who has 2 wins in Champions League history (both last season). And who can forget the crazy 4-0 loss to Alcorcon. (I'm a Madrid fan if you can't tell.) Of course, the bigger issue is squad depth. MLS teams aren't regularly embarrassed when playing their first XI. It happens still, or course, but most of the upsets these days are when they field mostly the back ups.
None of it really is an indictment of Tillman's skill set or talent level. All I'm saying is that when the games are as lopsided as many of these SPL games for Rangers, its hard to really make an assessment. Put Paul Arriola on Rangers, let him do whatever the hell he wants to out there, and he'll make some really nice plays too. I'm sure his xG or whatever will be great. I mean, he had 10 goals and 6 assists in 32 MLS games last year. Tillman has 10 goals and 5 assists in 38 games across all competitions this season. What does that mean? Probably nothing, but its true nonetheless.
That should always be the case, right. Hopefully folks are screaming for Jesus to move to a more competitive league so he can be "evaluated". Good players need to be evaluated on their intrinsic skillsets. At the beginning of this year Schalke picked up Moritz Jenz, a 23yo who was Celtic's #3 CB who rotated behind CCV and their other starter. In the 8 matches that Jenz has played, Schalke is undefeated and that includes matches against Dortmund, Union Berlin, Wolfsburg and Gladbach. Folks can say that Jenz was a rotational starter at Celtic and of course they say the SPL sucks. so he never faced much pressure. He is now facing pressure from UCL level clubs at the top of the BuLi and thriving. Evaluate the player not the league.
MLS teams don't have the depth to field B teams and take a road game casually, and that's what Austin did. But this whole discussion vis a vis Tillman is exactly why I think this league stuff is so overblown except as context. Tillman is killing it at Rangers. He's productive, he's showing excellent skill with the ball, good finishing, strong passing vision, and he physically clearly has an edge in the SPL. And he's also on a team where he gets a TON of chances, so the actual production should be discounted a bit. His ability to beat guys one on one should be held cautiously. But the skill shouldn't. The speed of thought, the quickness, the ability to have an edge at higher levels should be questioned. So he needs to move up. He will. Whether MLS is better than the SPL is irrelevant here, even if say, we compare him to someone like Mihailovic, who is different but fits in as sort of that passing half space hub / opportunistic second striker mold that Tillman also plays in terms of role. There's going to be no measure that tells you that Tillman's performance with Rangers is greater than or less than Djordje's performance with Montreal last year. Tillman has a physical edge, and I think a slight technical edge. Djordje really developed a knack for the killer play -- his strength was in large part in his decision making applying to his abilities. He was the offensive centerpiece for his team; Tillman gets to play a bit as a "bonus" player. But get them both in camp, and see how they do. Mihailovic is getting his first shot. If I had to bet long term, I bet on the guy with the better tools, which is Tillman. But trying to parse MLS and the SPL is pointless here -- they give context to scouting and stats but not much more.
I think both teams are significantly better than any MLS club. It's just the rest of the league which isn't very good. Look at someone like James Sands and his inability to break into the Rangers lineup.
It's not about being evaluated but if someone shows they are very good at a particular level you want to see them move up to the next level. And that's whether they are Tillman or whether they are Jesus Ferreira. It'll probably be easier for Tillman to make a move for various reasons, but I'd like to see both do so soon.
I've watched a lot of Gers/Tillman this season, and my early gentle complaint about him was he was clearly super-skilled, but seemed as interested in showing his skill as he was in winning games. To my (non-stat supported) eye, he (or Beale et al) has worked on making his game more efficient and effective. He still shows a bit of flash, but it seems to me better timed - and some of his play seem more direct and has more impact. Some of his increase in effectiveness seems to have coincided with Morelos rolling back onto the field, but my eye test says his play has adjusted a bit too.
Mihailovic was in Berhalter's first camp and had 5 caps in 2019. He has certainly improved since then so good to se how he compares with the current roster especially against Booth.
A big part of this is tape grinder vs stats. I try to use stats because in my experience, tape scouting is so riven with bias that it makes it incredibly difficult to be consistently reliable with it, whereas #'s are #'s. They just are what they are. I can watch Tillman and get a "feel" for what I think he could be, but in the end, I'm biased because he's exactly the kind of prospect I'm likely to overrate what I see with that's good and undersell what's bad. So I look at the #'s and try to not get overhyped, and while referencing what Rangers and Bayern Munich have to offer, own that I'm skirting the line of an appeal to authority fallacy.
No doubt you need both scouting and stats. But both need context, and unlike in baseball, there aren't really clear translations, so the context needs to be provided a bit subjectively instead of things like AAA or NPB translations which have an objective basis. I may not seem like it on this board, but I'm a big stats guy. It's just that soccer stats are so incomplete compared to many other sports. In baseball, which is the most discrete, we have a good idea of value. But we also have a good idea of what it important for a young player at lower levels. And it's gone beyond performance and demographics -- they now get into things like batspeed and hard contact rate and swinging strike %. For example, for a pitcher, the first thing I look for in a pitching prospect is do they have a swing and miss pitch. You can look at the scouting reports (far more standardized in baseball) or the stats, but you better miss bats with at least your fastball and one off speed pitch. What's the comparison for a young players playing at a lower level? In soccer, we're back in the day when all we had was average, home runs and age. Not even that, really. Maybe hits and home runs but just for like a third of the players. So I'm not down on stats as an objective measure, but they don't come anywhere to painting a complete picture. The eye test is notoriously unreliable and not very specific. But I think if you take a categorically scouting outlook, it can be helpful. Some things -- first touch, ball control, accuracy -- translate pretty well. Other things, like decision making and speed of play, are big jumps as you move up that I don't know if you can really tell even from watching games. And the athleticism you need to either simply compete or actually be able to use it as advantage grows rapidly, though I feel like it is easier to tell when someone really has it. In college basketball, I have the Adam Morrison test. I knew he'd be bad at the NBA because he was making NBA shots -- fadeaways, pump fakes, etc. -- at the college level. It can't be that hard even if you are productive. The best NBA players get lots of layups and easy shots in college and learn the rest a bit later. It's stuff like this where I get a bit nervous about guys like Wright moving up because the goals he scores are about 50% him just being bigger and stronger and that's not going to be true at a higher level. Whereas I'm not worried about that issue with Dike. Dude can literally bang with anyone. It's why I had a ton of confidence in Pulisic, because his first step with the ball was so electric it translates everywhere. It's why Ferreira's size is a concern at striker. Anyway, I'm rambling. But my point with Malik is simple on the scouting point: His athleticism and size plays at the higher level if not necessarily being a huge edge He does use his size to score but he's not really overly dependent on speed His overall ball skills that aren't so level dependent -- passing accuracy, first touch, close in control, ball striking -- seem to be good enough to play up He has pretty good passing vision and ideas for scoring for this level Production is good but not great for where he is and role Negative: he's a total tweener right now position-wise and if he stays at attacking mid or striker, those are generally the highest standard at the highest levels in terms of expectations I know Scotland isn't that great, Rangers rolls people in league and sucks in Europe. Okay, enough for me to know he isn't a superstar -- which I could see -- but still has potential. I think where Malik ends up depends a LOT on how his game evolves role and positionally. If he wants to play at the highest levels, even on a midtable team, this is likely what needs to happen: Needs to develop insanely strong poaching/box awareness and movement and become a striker (unlikely) Needs to add more defense to his game and become an attacking 8 or attacking mid / wing with strong defense to either appeal to a midtable or lower team or a pressing high level team I like him a ton, but he's not playing a low-defense 10 role on a high level team. Most teams in Top 5 leagues don't even have those; just the very best. Even in a league like MLS, he'd be more like a better version of his brother's role than say, Carles Gil. I mean, that's not entirely different role-wise than what he plays with Rangers in the sense that he's an attacking connector and finisher who isn't the primary option. So that means either becoming a complete player and becoming an attacking 8 or 10 on team that team defends, or playing forward ... where the chances are he becomes that guy are pretty low. But he could certainly be a second tier forward or a complete forward on a lesser top 5 team, no doubt. I'm probably being too deterministic here -- just being reasonable. Tons of talent, but I think it is more important to understand how he plays and how he succeeds than just the production.
Sands couldn't lock up a starting spot but was a firm part of the rotation and played a ton for Rangers.
For a period yes, but definitely not for his last couple of months there. There’s a reason they sent him back early.
I think this article about Khvicha Kvaratskhelia raises some relevant questions concerning cross league comparisons. For one it raises the issue of what qualities could make one a better player in a better league than in a lesser one: https://www.espn.com/sports/soccer/...essons-rise-napoli-star-khvicha-kvaratskhelia
Why didn't we call in Tillman again, he's injured? MALIK TILLMAN GOAL 🇺🇸🏴🦅 20-year-old born in Nürnberg, Germany thumps one past Dundee goalkeeper to give Rangers the lead. Bayern loanee now has 9 league goals this season. 🙌pic.twitter.com/wuMttWVJq8— Men in Blazers (@MenInBlazers) April 1, 2023 🚨 MALIK TILLMAN BRACE The USMNT midfielder has added a second goal for Rangers against Dundee United in the Scottish Premier League taking him to double digits on the season. Many Rangers fans hoping the Bayern Munich loanee makes his move permanent. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/jSI7j4eopc— Men in Blazers (@MenInBlazers) April 1, 2023
Really curious if we'll see some really bad takes walked back from '21. Tend to doubt it. Btw, as I've mentioned before, posting isn't a game to win, if it was, I would have lost a billion times over to both better arguments and countless bad takes especially on prospects over the years, but man we're there some really silly takes on him from last summer and fall based on a handful of minutes in a couple of friendlies where he played middling to poor with total strangers. Totally ignored years and years of youth data, and continued to ignore Rangers data, and now, 5 goals in 4 games, 7 in his last 9, 12 on the year in his first professional season, Rangers fans desperate to keep him (why Bayern Munich wouldn't trigger the pull back buy would be beyond me). I see the same thing happening with Zendejas, people totally ignoring his breakout performance in Liga Mx the past 3 seasons (including this one) focusing instead on a handful of minutes in a January and March Friendly where he didn't look great, reestablishing with old teammates and new. He has nowhere near as high the ceiling or floor as Tillman, but it's the same kind of vividness bias, small sample size problem as w/Tillman from last year. Tillman's still got to do the business in real leagues against real competition, but its worth noting he did play the key role in their qualification in CL, even if they played like --- in the actual group stage and he's scored his goals against Hearts, and more middling teams in the SPL, and is dominating as he should be. He's legit, period, how good and how legit is open to debate. I'm not going to envision a top team in a top league future until it actually happens but I think he's writing a story very suggestive as belonging as a starter in a big 5 league, probably at least mid table size, but we'll see, it's just Rangers and Rangers opponents for now and what Rangers and BM brass think of him (w/all the appeal to authority fallacy issues that that admittedly has).
I was just poking around looking for info on Tillman's contract situation. I found an article from 3 hours ago saying that Rangers are talking with Bayern right now about exercising the purchase option, which is 5 million pounds. It seems stupid for Rangers not to do that. Can he block the deal if he doesn't agree to salary terms with Rangers? Or what if someone came in offering 10 million for him? Would Rangers buy him and then immediately flip him to make 5 million for nothing? It wouldn't be the worst thing to tear up the SPL another season and then move for a nice chunk of change next summer, but it seems like he's ready to challenge himself at a higher level, and it would be a wasted development year if he goes back to Rangers.
I think it is hard not to be impressed with Tillman's scoring record. I'm glad they are playing him more as an attacking 8 -- I think adding more defensive chops is something he needed and gives him options and makes him much more attractive at the highest levels where his other skills might be less differentiated. At the same time ... I do still wonder what he looks like as a striker. It's also okay to want to see him against better teams. I think he's likely one data point for "attacker development is better with better teams so you get more chances" but you can see his sort of opportunism and ability to interplay adding a lot of value if he can also defend. Zendejas clearly has the on ball skill and a great shot. He went through what a lot of our players went through in the El Salvador game -- thinking he can dribble multiple guys or do it all, and he can't. Neither really can Pulisic. I'd like to see a game where he's playing a bit more team ball and where we can see if he can add value with his skills and in particular, get that shot off since we really don't have a lot of great shooters. He's small, and I couldn't great a great read on speed. I don't think he's going to be a good defender. So he's going to have to differentiate on skill. I'll be interested to see if he can do that against better teams and/or if we can help him do that. If nothing else, he's a different look with a different skillset.
Well, to he honest, Dundee is USL Championship level at best. They're bottom of the SPL for a reason. Otherwise Malik was MOTM by far today.
Rangers have a buy option and Bayern have a buyback option. It is all a game of checkers at this point.
Is not that we were wrong assessing the kid. The kid simply has improved a lot this year. He used to be slow at defending, now, he tackles like a relentless #6 in a better team. His aerial game is like a bonafide #9. His attacking game is of a #10. If continues, there is no way he shouldn't make the final 23 for the NL games.
He seems to score nonstop against Hearts, Motherwell, and Dundee, over and over, it's kind of funny if you look at his box score. But he's doing the business at this point, you line up the opponent, and he scores. I actually undersold what he's done because he also scored that notorious goal against Thistle. He's scored in 5 straight games, and 7 of his past 10. It's basically on. He's scoring nearly every game now, and he's not playing striker.