News: Malik Tillman Has Reportedly picked The USMNT

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Sebsasour, May 19, 2022.

  1. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    From what I remember, there isn't a transfer clause in TIllman's loan deal.

    I see this like Weah's loan to Celtic.

    Tillman is doing well enough at Rangers that he should be able to garner interest in the Bundesliga, etc.
     
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  2. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Kind of remember that Rangers has a right of first refusal to by him but if they do Bayern can buy him back.
     
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  3. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure seems that MLS is increasing their development of young players as the teams mature. Any teams that started within the last 5-6 years are only starting to see any results from their efforts and there are more new teams coming. Some of the sluggards are seeing the money that FCD and Philly made and are now interested. I see no way this doesn't keep improving.
     
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  4. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    My gut tells me $ is probably a pretty good starter that gets you in the ballpark. Related but more accurate (and far more difficult to measure) would be total compensation. In addition to salary, compensation would include things like league/team prestige, standard of living and safety, proxiity to home etc. Money is the only one that is easily quantified. All or most of the other factors would vary on an individual basis.

    Money is still probably more reliable when comparing teams and leagues across continents (I would guess), than some of the other methods that rely on common competition. I fail to understand how an elo rating system can be considered reliable when the teams do not participate in the same competitions. At some point, an elo system which is supposed to be objective, due to fudging and compensations for a lack of common competition, becomes subjective. It is possible that the subjective opinion is relatively accurate but it is still subjective.

    Russia would probably have a difficult time paying enough to have a league in the top 5 right now.
     
  5. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Agree.

    I do think in terms of what I was talking about, I was referring more to the players that stay rather than are sold (or I guess, who come back home). About half of the rosters should be American, and it's that level of player I'd really like to see improve and bring up the bottom half of the league's rosters.

    We're starting to have 40-50 games seasons now with two cup competitions, playoffs and CCL, and the top end of MLS rosters are really getting competitive.

    Granted, LAFC is one of the better teams, but here's their last year payroll:

    Vela
    Bale
    Bouanga
    Tello
    Acosta
    Sanchez
    Chiellini

    Are all over $1M, and then Arango, Cifuentes, Palacios are all worth it. That's basically a starting roster of $1M caliber players. If they were to hit on all those (and Tello was a miss, Bale didn't play much and Chiellini old) they could compete healthy in bottom half of something like Ligue 1, I think ... until the subs. Because a cheap Frenchman is much better than the average cheap American.

    Some of the players that go to Europe will do okay and come back, and help bring up the league. Even without a DP slot (or with one), MLS can compete on salaries with a lot of these teams that players are at right now to "try Europe."

    But I also think we need to see the Brandon Servanias get better. Guys that maybe don't attract a ton of European interest but act as a ninth starter or sub. MLS teams can get weak linked pretty quick if they aren't LAFC or Philly.
     
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  6. dspence2311

    dspence2311 Member+

    Oct 14, 2007
    I watched the video too. Having watched Austin FC get absolutely pasted by Pachuca last season I took the thesis with a grain of salt. As you say, it is a factor but I don’t think that by itself it is a proxy for quality. I don’t see Rangers or Celtic routinely finishing near the bottom of MLS, for example. Yet the $ difference between leagues is HUGE.
     
  7. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    There are a decent number of Argentinians who cite safety and a quiet community to raise their kids in coming to MLS. Whereas I doubt any European would; for them, it tends to be a bit more of an adventure, the cash, or if they are a bigger name, a chance for either branding or anonymity.

    Yep. 538 uses transfermarkt values where they don't have enough real data between teams. That's one of the reasons I am excited for Leagues Cup as a data geek. It's the first real top to bottom competition I know between leagues.

    I wonder if they ever really will recover. I don't really care.
     
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  8. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You can't go by single games though. I was in Pachuca to watch FCD take them on on the road in CCL. Chcky Lozana was the difference in that game and I still think had Oscar played Cannon at right back we would have one because the guy we had (can't or won't remember his name) was a terrible defender. Austin is also pretty new and it takes time to learn how to play teams from different countries. And Pachuca knows what they are doing and is one of the top teams there. BTW, a great place to visit and the people are super friendly.
     
  9. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    There's a very good sample size for CCL since the introduction of TAM. MLS teams are roughly .500 in ties against LigaMX teams in that time; I think a little under. Austin v Pachuca is one data point of many, and I saw Seattle steamroll Leon and Pumas last year, and I saw LAFC beat Leon, Cruz Azul and America in 2020 before barely losing to Tigres.

    We'll have more CCL this year, and Leagues Cup, but all the data points to MLS and LigaMX being close to on par at the top, and likely a little better at the bottom.

    (I will say I don't believe capology's LigaMX salary numbers -- they are far lower than what has been previously reported).

    You are right it is simply a proxy. The market is not so efficient that pay = quality even on a player level, let alone team. I also think MLS teams are probably overrated by salary because the back end of the roster is probably not quite as good as the average cheap Dutch or Argentinian player for the same price. But that's within general rounding.

    I don't think either Celtic or Rangers would finish at the bottom, and the video doesn't say that. Celtic would be right at the top -- and Rangers would be good, but I'm not sure they are near as good as Celtic. I'm aware one poster seems to think otherwise.

    But I would actually be interested to see how some of these teams do in an MLS set up. I don't think the logistics are an end all, be all, but there are absolutely players who can hang in Scotland who will wilt under 90 degree heat and six hour plane flights. Celtic and Rangers will still be good, but if there's folks hanging on on skill and guile ... good luck.

    --------------

    In terms of Tillman, I don't even get the point of getting this far into the weeds. He's playing well for a pretty good team in a league where the average opponent is probably a bit below MLS. He totally has the edge of his teammates being better than his opponents -- we so rarely talk about this -- which really helps.

    But there's no formula here. Scotland is in that big morass of pretty good leagues, perhaps in the middle to bottom of it, and as such, there's no amount of analysis here that is going to tell us via league quality whether he's better than Taylor Booth or whomever. Just gotta see them play.
     
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  10. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Payroll for Celtic is $28 million, which would have comfortably placed them at the top of the MLS financial league table for the '22 season. Reasonably, they would've been one of the top teams in MLS.
     
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  11. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    I definitely agree that we seem to have a real advantage in South America. The distance is far enough for both to be a non-factor but in addition to the relative safety of most of our communities, WIth the number of Latin American immigrants, I think the culture and language barriers are far fewer in the US, than most of Europe.
     
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  12. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Its very hard to measure the relative strength of MLS versus overseas leagues. So MLS versus SPL? Who the hell knows, but I personally think the top of MLS would stack up well with Rangers/Celtic. If the question is LAFC versus Rangers, I think its a good contest that could go either way. But the 10th best team in MLS would blow the doors off of the 10th best team in the SPL. Just my opinion. That's like Cincinnati versus Ross County.

    Older fans like myself remember when MLS squads would routinely lose to Central American teams in the CCC/CCL (and even Caribbean teams on occasion. Yes, the Supporter's Shield winner would struggle against Joe Public.) And we'd get pasted by Liga MX B teams. They wouldn't bother starting an A team.

    It wasn't until FCD over Pumas in 2011 that an MLS team actually won an official game in Mexico. That was a Pumas B team against FCD's first team.........and it was 1-0. That Dallas team then failed to beat Tauro of Panama home and away. Didn't advance.

    But we see over and over again that the gap between MLS and Liga MX closing quickly. Additional data points in Leagues Cup, etc. will be interesting.

    That's the one measuring stick that's semi-accurate. Games that actually matter. Anything else is conjecture. Seattle's game in the CWC will be interesting.
     
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  13. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Money is money. And football is a fairly globalized sport.

    When average salaries had been vastly lower, MLS teams routinely lost to Central American sides. Average MLS salary in 2008 was $80k. It's now $460k.
     
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  14. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Agreed. It's not the only way to rate teams or leagues but it does get you into the ballpark. Be interesting for someone to combine or use salaries as part of a ratings system.
     
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  15. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    Absolutely no argument with that. It is true in all businesses and careers, but what is really important is total compensation. Money makes up a significant (often the most important by far) portion of that compensation but how often do people make career decisions based in part on other issues...like quality of life? I'm quite sure that there are many that would take a slight pay cut if the quality of life in a different area is better, the commute is shorter, job conditions better, prestige of the company is greater etc.

    My opinion is that because money is one of, if not the most significant factors and it is the only one that I can think of off hand that is easily quantifiable, it gives an excellent starting point and a ranking based purely upon salaries would probably do a reasonably good job in many (most?) cases. The more similarities, the stronger the correlation.

    Of course even total payroll, by itself, might give different results based upon the distribution of that payroll within the league and or team. Does the weakest link theory apply? If so, exactly how?
     
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  16. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #616 Clint Eastwood, Feb 3, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2023
    Indeed. Stuart Holden was making $40k his entire time in MLS. While he was in MLS' best XI and getting USMNT callups. He'd have been in better financial position working as an assistant manager at Ruby Tuesday's. [Houston/MLS offered him a bigger-money extension, but he chose to let the contract expire. He then moved to England on a free transfer.]

    An equivalent player right now makes a ton of money. Paxton Pomykal last season made $700k, and he just got a pay raise/extension.

    I think there are some that vastly under-rate the financial position of MLS. The quality of the league will continue to grow as it attracts talent. And what you hear from some players that come to MLS is that they appreciate the paychecks actually arriving on time. I guess in some parts of the world, you can't always count on it.
     
  17. ChrisSSBB

    ChrisSSBB Member+

    Jun 22, 2005
    DE
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sampdoria hasn't paid their players yet for 4th qtr 2022.
     
  18. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just curious where you are getting these numbers from, especially the $80k in 2008... not that I don't believe it.
     
  19. TheHoustonHoyaFan

    Oct 14, 2011
    Houston
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fascinating how a Malik Tillman USMNT thread has turned into a MLS is wonderful thread! Are there some rumors that Tillman is moving to MLS after his 'Gers loan spell?
     
  20. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    https://www.capology.com/us/mls/payrolls/2008/

    The MLSPA publishes salaries every year, so these are pretty accurate. I didn't see per player, but you can make some assumptive math. On a 30 man roster, the number in 2008 would actually be closer to $100k according to that.

    Similar math puts 2022 around $450k.
     
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  21. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    Looks like the whole tangent started because Tillman scored a goal in early January and to highlight that goal for some reason a poster referenced Mueller returning to MLS from Scotland, thus inviting the whole MLS vs. the world dynamic.
     
  22. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    2004 was the year, actually. By 2008, it was about 120.

    SOCCER; Few Getting Rich Playing in M.L.S. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

     
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  23. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    That's what it is. Theathletic mentioned the particulars late last August, which struck them as an unusual deal that reflected Bayern's desire to keep open the opportunity of buying him back, rather than an outright loan+buy straight options for rangers. The particular relevant text:

    "...It is understood Bayern believe the younger Tillman still has the potential to be a part of their first team one day and that is why the loan deal that brought him to Rangers this summer has been structured the way it has.

    Rangers’ year-long agreement includes an exclusive option to sign the now 20-year-old permanently at an agreed fee, but The Athletic is informed Bayern retain a buy-back option on top of that, which would allow them to re-sign the two-cap USA midfielder at a higher price than they sell him for.

    It is a type of deal Bayern have done with their top talents in recent years and Tillman’s availability on loan this summer was strictly prefaced by the need for his parent club to still have his long-term future in their hands. Indeed, there is a belief they rate him so highly that a very successful season with Rangers, which he is on track to have after these encouraging early weeks, could see the Scottish side trigger their option to buy and then Bayern trigger the clause to bring him back!..."

    link:
    Malik Tillman’s unusual Rangers loan shows just how highly Bayern rate him - The Athletic
     
  24. laxcoach

    laxcoach Member+

    United States
    Jul 29, 2017
    intermountain west
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Anytime the MLS is compared less favorable to a non Big 5 league the thread is killed. I wish posters would just stop comparing leagues to MLS because I've read the arguments for and against too many times already. Opinions are all over the map here and that's great but there will be no shift in the masses based on the same arguments here.

    Tillman is looking more promising all the time. Have to wonder how long he lasts in SPL.
     
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  25. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    If Rangers have any type of transfer option on the original loan deal, they should trigger it. Then they can sell soon and probably make a nice profit.

    I saw a Bayern tweet today talking about how great Richards, Booth, and Tillman are doing. The standard for becoming a Bayern regular is REALLY high.

    As it comes to MLS player versus League X player...................we're supposed to have a thread to contain all of that craziness. You're right. :)
     

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