Now we both know that Israel just bought nuclear submarines from Geramny that can hit ANY target in Iran from the Persian Gulf - Yes or No? Yes Israel has enough bombers to cause vast damage to the Iranian main nuclear reactors with 500 lb bunker bombs Yes or No? Yes As for Missiles, do you think Israel does not have anything to repent Shahabs I II III, etc? US and Germany are ready to offer any assistance Israel at a moments notice - Yes or No? Yes Israel has the backing of US in the worst xaser scenario, so who do you think is the favorite in this contest? Exactly, that tiny little country called Israel.
Israel will be increasing its fleet from 3 to 5 nuclear armed subs. Hopefully at least 3 of those will be in the Persian Gulf. I would like to see Israel purchase more of these subs and invest more in their navy. As for the Israel/USA-Iran conflict, I'm afraid Iran has won this battle. Iran will be a nuclear power. Iran has run out the clock, the game is over. They won. Israel now should focus more on nuclear deterrence and anti-missile defense. Israel must be totally capable of exterminating Iran if Iran (or their nuclear armed proxies) strikes first, and they must be totally aware of this. Israel must expand their sea based nuclear arsenal. America (and hopefully Israel behind the scenes) must figure out a way to work with Iran so they don't freak out the Arabs into also going nuclear. Israel can't rely on America in a war (and visa versa, of course). Israel is more powerful militarily than Iran, but this is only relevant for defensive purposes.
Germans believe Iran will have nuke by 2015, so I would not say yet that the game is over, it's in overtime and it's still a draw. As for defensive purposes, Israel needs Palestinians to have their own country, which will make many resources go away from Gaza and WB to nuclear deterence weapons.
Iran developing nuclear weapons is a function of the following factors: 1- A decision to actual make nuclear weapons; 2- Having between 2,000-3,000 centrifuges operational; 3- Operating those centrifuges for a period of one year, enriching and re-enriching the uranium to the purity level required for a nuclear bomb. 4- Having the design to use the enriched uranium for a nuclear devise. Pretty much everything else you read on the subject, especially all the 'estimates' about when Iran would 'have' the bomb, is tainted with propaganda and spin from various corners, each aimed to butress the policy proposals they are advocating. Iran may never develop the bomb because it might decide it doesn't need nuclear weapons. And/or because it might find the incentives or sanctions it faces too attractive or costly, as the case may be. To arrive at that juncture should be the focus of negotiations with Iran, although instead the negotiations that have taken place have had other agendas (i.e., to deprive Iran of the ability to make nukes which is impractical/impossible, instead of lessening its need or desire to do so). As for whether Iran has the ability to operate between 2-3 thousand centrifuges in a cascade, the short answer is that it does. Depending on the stage of negotiations, and how amicable or hostile are the attitudes taken, Iran has alternatively slowed down or accelerated the number of centrifuges it has been preparing. When Iran's case was about to be sent to the UN intitially, Iran decided to operate a single cascade of 124 centrifuges and enrich a small sample of uranium to send a message. When recently the talks with Iran again failed, and the US/EU again began pushing for sanctions, Iran doubled the number of its operational centrifuges. According to Iran, and according to what Iran has even shown the IAEA, Iran is able to put together 3,000 centrifuges pretty quickly. Indeed, officially, Iran plans to do so before the end of the year. Once Iran has 3,000 centrifuges operational, it can have the bomb within less than a year from whenever it decides it wants it. And this is all just based on what Iran has actually revealed publicly and shown to the IAEA. If Iran has a secret program in the meantime, it might already have the components to put together a couple of nuclear weapons in short order.
Damn, when Lieberman said he had Joementum he really meant it. Next you'll tell me he's been appointed president of Malawi!
Why get into a cold war? After some political modifications there should be cooperative peace. No need to be so paranoid. The region needs a new "playbook" that need be re-written. I agree with you there. We don't need players that are fundamentally unstable to have nukes. Pakistan is a great concern; a poor and populated country with nukes and an unstable military regime.
I would be relieved if there were just a "cold war" between Israel and Iran. Diplomatic relations, summits, and the like would be a vast improvement!
Ben- Do you really support a nutjob like Effi Eitam, his credentials to democracy and pluralism are tenuous at best. Atleast Lieberman considers Druze to be honorary Jews, whereas Eitam's entire basis for Israeli citizenship is religious judaism, which in no way takes into account non-Jewish minorities or the Jewish people who are not his branc of modern orthodox. I think Lieberman is a racist, and this is not shocking, given his eastern european background. He calls for an illegal population transfer, and as such lives in a world where dimentia and fascism reign, not Israeli democracy that has been made so vibrant without people like him playing any role in that.
No, but in a region of Nasrallahs, Ahmadinejads, and Haniyehes, not to mention bin Ladens, it's necessary to demonstrate that Israel can, shall we say, fit in.
Iran is playing a very foolish and dangerous game which has already cost them enormously, but as 2007 approaches, it's becoming clear that this is a game they will win. Whether it makes sense for American or Israeli leaders to admit that is one thing, but they should understand it and be able to adapt. I'm not suggesting "appeasement," but the bluff has been called and I'd advise against throwing more money into the pot. Rather, it's time for a new hand. As is always the case, America has much more room for error than Israel.