What's going to be a real problem for Labour is if Zack Polanski is successful in taking over the Green's leadership. He's running as a left wing populist. Regardless of opinions on the feasibility of his proposed policies (substantial wealth taxes, increased spending on investment, nationalise key utilities), they will attract more voters if people remain disillusioned with Labour.
Current seat status with most of the votes counted. Our system allows postal votes to be received up to 13 days after election day provided they were posted by election day. Some of the doubtful 11 seats are because the count is very close and some are because we don't yet know who will run second so can't predict how the final distribution of preferences will go. Current final prediction by analysts who's opinions I rate is ALP 93/94 (+15/16) LNP 44 (--13) GRN 1 (-3) Others 11/12 (-3/4) The seat in extreme doubt has one expert thinking ALP will win and another 2 thinking an independent will win but predicted margins are less than 100 votes. If people are wondering why it takes so long our system involves a system of what we call declaration votes which are a combination of postal votes and votes cast outside of the voters electorate (riding, congressional district for those used to other terms) which are sealed in envelopes and sent to the respective AEC office in the area. These are counted in batches when received after cross checking to see if the voter is eligible to vote in that area and hasn't already registered another type of vote. This means very close seats aren't obvious for up to w couple of weeks. The AEC does an indicative preference count on the expected top 2 candidates as they count primary votes. Sometimes they pick the wrong two (eg Bean), and sometimes 2nd and 3rd are very close and whoever comes second will win (eg Ryan). In one seat (Monash) we have close 2nd, 3rd and 4th and if the current 3rd or 4th end up second its possible for them to win but if the 2nd hangs on to 2nd the primary vote leader will win.
Even though the election was two weeks ago our counting process takes some time. There are still two seats that remain in doubt. We are currently in the formal distribution of preferences stage where the candidate with the lowest vote total is eliminated and voters preferences are distributed to the highest ranked candidate remaining in the ballot until a candidate has 50%. The seat of Bradfield started with an indicative margin of 40 votes but this has dropped to 5 as the votes are checked again and as the distribution process is undertaken. If the margin is less than 100 there will be a recount which seems likely . The other undecided seat had no indicative count undertaken as there was such a spread of votes they weren't sure who would be the final two. They had 13 candidates with the leader on 30% and 3 others between 10 and 15%. Currently 4 candidates remain in the count with Labor leading on 36.6%, an independent on 25.6%, the Liberal candidate on 21.2% and the Green candidate on 16.7%. The Green candidate is the next to be excluded, this count will probably be completed later today leaving 3 candidates.
What a sensible way to deal with a tie. Here in the UK, we go to a coin toss or similar random selection. It's happened a few times at a council level. Even then, it's better than it used to be. There was a tie in one seat in the 1886 general election, and there the returning officer simply decided who had won.
It ended up an 8 vote win to Kapterian. A recount will commence Monday which will likely be heavily scrutinised and the AEC expects it to take about two weeks. There will only be one recount and a winner then declared but either party has the option of raising an objection with the Court of Disputed Returns if they can prove irregularities that would possibly have a material affect on the result. In federal matters the Court of Disputed returns is actually the High Court so there can be no further appeals.
Daaaaaaaamn. Here in the US there would be a manual recount, during which various election offices would "find" new ballots and the parties would spend time "curing" other ballots that were excluded in the first vote.
I should have kept reading the thread. So it is like the US! Here's one of the fun ones that we had in my state. After the initial count, the Republican led by 261 votes. Almost 2 months later, the final certification had the Democrat ahead by 129 votes. Between those two events, there was a ton of lawsuits over what ballots should and shouldn't be counted, a bunch of ballots were randomly found that had been sent, but weren't sent through the machines to be counted. It was fun times. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Washington_gubernatorial_election#Manual_recount
Process is similar in that each ballot paper (including those ruled invalid in the first count) are recounted. The process is the AEC counts the votes with scrutineers appointed by candidates observing. The scrutineers can challenge the validity or otherwise of each paper. A decision on validity is made by the AEC person in charge. All ballot papers are kept for a possible legal challenge. In recent history those challenging the result in court which leads to another election in that seat usually lose as voters don't necessarily like being forced to vote again (voting is compulsory). There was a case in QLD state politics in the 80's where a by election forced by the court resulted in a change of Government after a very close general election.
Updates on results. Goldstein - A partial recount after former member Tim Wilson originally won by 260 votes has cut his lead to 175 but he still wins the seat. Wilson is the only Liberal to take a seat from the incumbent (Zoe Daniels - Independent) at this election Bradfield - A full recount after Liberal Candidate Giselle Kapterian won by 8 votes is in progress. As errors are found in various booths the results are updated by adjusting the overall totals. Movement has been by a vote or two with the biggest move happening from a large booth recounted yesterday. Independent Nicolette Boele currently leads by 12. If the result stays this close it may end up in by election. Senate - The Senate results have landed after the distribution of preferences from surplus votes and eliminated candidates. The biggest surprise was One Nation ( a right wing minor party) winning the final seats from Labor in WA and NSW, New Senate numbers ALP 28 (16 won, 12 continuing)# LNP 27 (13, 14) Greens (6, 5)* One Nation (3, 1) Jackie Lambie Network (1,0)** David Pocock (1) Australia's Voice (0,1)# Tammy Tyrrell for Tasmania (0,1)** UAP (0,1) Independent (0,1)* 39 votes are required to pass legislation (a tie is considered a negative vote) so the Government needs the votes of either the Greens or the LNP. # Fatima Payman was elected in 2022 as an ALP Senator from WA but left the party and formed her own. * Lydia Thorpe was elected as a Green Senator from VIC in 2022 but left the party and sits as an independent ** Tammy Tyrrel was elected under the Jackie Lambie Network in Tasmania in 2022 but left and formed her own self named party
Final results are in. Tim Wilson wins in Goldstein by 175 votes and Nicolette Beole wins Bradfield by 27 votes. In a bit of twist incumbent Green Senator Dorinda Cox has defected to Labor with 3 years of her 6 year term remaining.