Totally for the fun of it, if anyone is game, we can see who gets closest to accurate predictions. This is a tough contest because who qualifies for the matches affects who might get appointed (and there's a very short window between qualification and appointments, so it's impossible to wait to ask the question). Anyway, without selecting exact matches, let's try to pick the QF, SF and Final ref. There are no steadfast rules that are employed, though it's worth noting that since tournament expansion, UEFA has not allowed referees to officiate a team at the QF stage that they already saw in the group stage (but no such exclusion has occurred at the semifinal stage). So, it's pretty wide open other than accounting for which teams qualify. Timing of group stage appointments might be one of the biggest factors. My thoughts: QUARTERFINALS Lannoy Webb Eriksson Skomina SEMIFINALS Kassai Proenca FINAL Cakir or Rizzoli Think Rizzoli is going to get screwed unless Italy gets eliminated at the QF stage. Can't see a game that fits him other than the Final; he could do the 1B v 2A match, but that still wouldn't be an amazing appointment. I thought Webb was a safe semifinal bet pre-tournament, but I think the timing and teams for his assignments bear out that he has to get a QF assignment now. Maybe he's still in the running for the Final, but I think QF is first. If Italy advances and Cakir is not viewed as "ready" for the Final (and I get my SF predictions right, who are probably the other big candidates!) then Webb is back in the mix. Eriksson seems to obviously fit for a Group C/D QF now that Sweden has already exited (of course, now is the time for the surprise). The timing of Lannoy's appointments seem to indicate he will be on a Group A/B QF. Skomina is my best guess for a fourth QF referee. He has a long-term future and there's no reason not to fit him in on a knockout match. I hope he gets it. Stark looks to be shut out, based on how Germany will advance and timing of his appointments (though he is obviously a long-shot Final candidate if Germany gets upset in the QF). I assume Velasco and Kuipers are out based on performance. I guess Thomson has gotten a great run for a guy lowly rated, but no more. I think those are the four who are definitely on the outside looking in--but for different reasons, of course. That leaves the 8 referees I've mentioned, with at least one of them (and possibly two) getting very unlucky.
Quarter Finals Lannoy Skomina Eriksson Rizzoli Semi Finals Kassai Cakir Final Webb Tried not to look at your predictions so they wouldn't influence mine. I think the progress of Italy, Spain and Germany will prevent Rizzoli, Carballo and Stark going far, while Kuipers' performances knock him out even before Holland's progress is considered. Hence, I've gone for Rizzoli to get a QF. Skomina, Eriksson and Cakir have to get games because of their 'neutrality'. Also because Kassai and Cakir aren't used till the end of the group games, I reckon they'll get semis. I really think it's set up for Webb to get the final. England won't get past the QFs, and with Italy's progress, it'll leave it a straight race between Webb and Kassai IMO for the final, and to be honest, you could make a case for either. I just think some politics may help Webb (Elleray prominent on the committee, his age precluding him from future Euros but not for Kassai) get the nudge.
Well, we're in 75% agreement for the quarters, so maybe we're onto something! The only match I can see Rizzoli getting is the one that involves Germany, but I would think Webb fits nicely there. But, if it involves Poland, Rizzoli probably gets it over Webb, which is something I hadn't thought of before. I was thinking that match would fit Webb nicely, but if Poland advance, I do wonder if UEFA would be so provocative. Lannoy probably fits on the game in Warsaw, unless Portugal advances. Skomina would do whichever match England is not on in the C/D encounters (if England advances). And Eriksson can do the other match. If Portugal advances, it does complicate things, though--because neither Rizzoli nor Lannoy can have that game. If Poland also advances, the issues with Webb make the puzzle all the more tougher. Separately, ou don't think UEFA will use Proenca at all in the knockout stages? If Portugal doesn't advance, I'd have to think he gets something.
You know what I said about not reading your post before finishing mine? Proenca was the one I forgot about. Having said that, I'm not sure who i'd remove. Really I think you have 8 genuine possibilities for 7 games (remove Thomson, Kuipers, Carballo and I think Stark). Thinking about it, isn't Lannoy stuck on the QFs? He has done a group A and B game, vastly limiting his potential to ref someone he hasn't done in that half of the draw, and France will almost certainly feature in the other half. He has to hope for a Russia vs Den/Hol QF. I see, as you do, Skomina getting France's QF and Eriksson getting England's. I have Rizzoli down to do the A vs B game that features Germany.
We might be both wrong in our elimination of Thomson. He's been incredibly good over 135 minutes, he's really not conflicted out of too many possible matches, he'll be well-rested, and Hugh Dallas is quite influential on the Committee. Velasco, Stark (through no fault of his own) and Kuipers might be the only three we can dismiss with any confidence.
I think tonight's games have ended Lannoy's participation as well. He reffed Greece vs Czech Republic, so can't do any A vs B game and France are on the other side, though I suppose he could, in theory, ref England's QF if they get there. I still think Thomson will go home, but with an improved reputation. Proenca can replace Lannoy in my predictions now.
Yes but I think Eriksson has to be gone now, too. Particularly because UEFA either have to overturn Karagounis' yellow (thereby publicly rebuking Eriksson) or uphold it, and then it wouldn't be fair for Karagounis to sit while Eriksson progresses. Lannoy might slide into that England match. Skomina seems a QF certainty. It dawns on me now that both Kassai and Cakir have not done any A/B teams and will have enough rest to do matches on Thursday and Friday. So, re-working things... Czech Republic v 1B (Portugal/Netherlands?) - CAKIR 1A (Germany?) v Greece - KASSAI And then Skomina on any match England is not in and Lannoy on any match France isn't in? I think that works! Webb for a semifinal, as I always thought pre-tournament. Proenca for the other semifinal. And then Cakir or Kassai for the Final based partly on merit and partly on which teams make it. With Rizzoli holding an outside shout if Italy falls at the QF stage and he dominates the Netherlands-Portugal match tomorrow. See... that was easy. All Eriksson had to do was make a big error and the pieces fell into place!
I still think Webb is on course for the final, but we'll see. Of course Greece and the Czechs will cause an upset making Stark and Proenca free and throw all your plans up in the air.
It's too difficult for me to make predictions on all the matches before the Final. But if you go by strictly performance over the last year it should probably be either Rizzoli, Cakir, or Proenca. Honestly, it can really be anybody. I can see Skomina doing it. I can see Stark getting a retirement gift. I can even see Thomson. I wouldn't be surprised if Webb did or if Lannoy did the Final. The gulf in quality between the worst official and the best at the Euros is so small. Margin are razor thin. This isn't like the World Cup where you can eliminate 3/4ths of the referees before a match is even kicked. Personally, I think Rizzoli should get the Final. I also see Italy being eliminated in the group stage. I don't think he will because Rosetti did the Final in '08. It just wouldn't look good for an Italian to get the Final again. My guess is it will be Proenca. Also, it seems that UEFA doesn't really care about "experience" as much as it used to. Until last year, I don't believe Proenca did a knockout match in the Champions League and he was rated as Portugal's number two referee. They gave him the Final this year. Until the World Cup no one heard of Kassai and he played his way into a semi-final and Champions League Final within one year. I think it really will be performance based. The quarterfinals will probably decided it. I also don't think it really matters any more if you did a Champions League Final or UEFA Cup Final/Europa League Final in the same season.
It's been interesting reading your predictions - so, new thoughts with Kassai's performance today? I think his performance was fine - but his crew's was not, so I am not sure we'll see them again....
UEFA has a very hard situation to solve here. What about the referee of the Final? IMO there are 5 refs in the 12, who have enough experience and whistled big match to get the Final: Webb, Stark, Proenca, Rizzoli and Kassai. We can exclude Stark, based on his nationality (Germany will probably reach the semis) and the poor performance on ESP-CRO. We can exclude Proenca, based on that he already had one big UEFA final this year. We can exclude Rizzoli, based on his nationality, UEFA won't give the EC final to an Italian again. We can exclude Kassai, based on his last match, his team was weak. So it's straight and easy: Webb for the final. Yes, again, after the WC Clearly UEFA won't go with an inexperienced guy like Skomina or Cakir. Maybe a semi, but not the final! So I expect: Plan A: Proenca, Lannoy, Stark and Kuipers for the QFs, Skomina and Cakir for the semis and Webb/Rizzoli for the Final based on the ITA - ENG result. It would be nice, but Rizzoli cannot get it, he is Italian... At this point we might notice how hard is this situation. Kassai is the only one of the 5 big names, who is totally neutral, the other 4 still has their teams in the mix... So UEFA may consider retaining Kassai despite the errors yesterday. (The missed goal wasn't that big error, the AAR couldn't see and it was hardly in.) Plan B: Lannoy (POR - CZE), Kuipers (GER - GRE), Proenca (ITA - ENG), Stark (ESP - FRA) for QFs, Cakir and Skomina for semis, and Webb for the final if Italy makes it to the semis. If England beats them, Kassai might get the Final match, becouse appointing him is the smallest bad decision... Thoughts?
I guess that Cakir isn't "big" enough yet. He is very good, but UEFA will try to find a more experienced guy. But maybe I'm wrong, he did a CL semi this year, so UEFA definitely counts on him. As for Proenca: The CL final is just one thing. On the other hand, keep in mind that Portugal will most likely qualify for the semis, so UEFA has a "now or never" decision to make with him (and with Rosetti, with Webb, with Lannoy or with Stark...), and he surely deserves one more match. Frankly, the "best" solution would be retaining Webb, Proenca,Rosetti and Stark, don't give a QF to any of them and wait for who hasn't got his team in the best 4... You could find 4 other crews for the QFs easily. Problem is, what could UEFA do, if England, Portugal and Germany makes it to the semis? So they must appoint these guys now, or never. This is the top reason why I rule out Proenca for the Final. To summarize: Proenca won't whistle the Final because: - UEFA will give him a QF before - If not, Portugal will reach TOP4 - If not, he won't get it because of the CL Final But who knows?
UEFA has announced the appointments of the match officials for the UEFA EURO 2012 quarter-finals, with English referee Howard Webb taking charge of the opening fixture of the last eight between the Czech Republic and Portugal in Warsaw tomorrow. Slovenia's Damir Skomina will referee Germany v Greece on Friday in Gdansk, while Nicola Rizzoli of Italy will handle Spain v France on Saturday in Donetsk. The referee overseeing the last quarter-final between England and Italy in Kyiv on Sunday night will be Pedro Proença of Portugal. Kassai and Kuipers have been sent home and won't officiate any further matches. (EDIT: according to Dutch press reports)
Kassai's AR had to go (the missed offside decision before the "goal" was by far the worst of the tournament, with the other AR's doing great work getting almost all of the very marginal and difficult offside decisions correct), and with the way they do assignments, that means gg Kassai.
Given the appointments, I'd say its safe to assume Kassai, Kuipers, Stark and Carballo have gone home. I'd also say the semi final officials have to come from the QF 4Os. If France get through I reckon it'll be Thomson and Cakir. If France don't get through, I reckon it'll be Lannoy and Cakir. I think Eriksson's mistakes burnt his bridges. As for the final, it looks like it'll be one of the QF refs. I'd rule out Skomina, so to be honest, a lot depends on how Portugal, England and Italy do in the QFs. I'm still putting Webb at the front of that list, but then I have a sneaky suspiscion that England will beat Italy which will end Webb's participation and hand Rizzoli the final. Essentially what I'm saying is that the referee for the final will come from the nation eliminated from the Italy vs England match*. I wonder who is better friends with Proenca. *Assuming no major controversies in their QF matches of course!
LOL...wouldn't that be quite the scandal. As for the Final it's too difficult to call right now due to the teams involved. We could even see one of the QF referees repeated for the SF, allowing for Cakir to have the final. Happened in the WC with Irmatov and could well happen here too.
My sports network claims Stark, Caballo and Kassai are officially out and will not have any more games at this EURO
Can we say that the ref who does the Final will come from the quarter final matches? I wouldn't discount Skomina. He doesn't have to worry about his country advancing unlike Proenca, Webb, or Rizzoli. Plus, of the four refs who are refereeing the quarter finals he is the only he is the only who hasn't done a major European Final. I think UEFA will go with Skomina for the Final. I don't think experience/age matters any more. Proenca really came out nowhere to the UCL Final. He wasn't even Portugal's numberone referee until this year. Kassai didn't have many big games in the Champions League before he got a World Cup semi-final and CL Final. If Webb gets the Final it wouldn't be fair to the other referees.
Assuming England beats Italy and Spain reaches the final, would Rizzoli get the match? He was assigned Spain in the QF and it is unusual (though I don't think unprecedented) to give a referee a team twice in three knockout matches. With Spain and Germany as the strong favorites to reach the final, it seems to me that keeping your final candidates off of those matches would be wise. I just wonder if that is a signal that Rizzoli is not a top candidate. Webb was given what seems to be the lowest profile QF giving him a high likelihood of not having refereed one of the finalists. To me, this seems to indicate he is a candidate for the final. With the same logic, I would rule out Skomina...otherwise I would think they would have kept him away from Germany. If England wins tomorrow and it ends up Spain v. Germany in the final, who gets the match? Based on some tradition that could eliminate any of the SF referees and those that already had them in the knockout stages. That seems to limit the choices of those with the pedigree to do the match with Kassai having been sent home and Webb, Proenca, and Stark having SF teams. So, which tradition is more likely to be abandoned, SF refs eliminated or avoiding recurring referee - team combos in the knockout stages? Or could it be Thomson, Cakir and Lannoy for SF/Final (again assuming England and Spain go through)? To me, that seems unthinkable based on pre-tournament predictions and assumptions. Thoughts?
I Think that tommorrow's game will decide who gets the Final.. Its either between Webb or Rizzoli. Kassai, Stark and Carballo Kuipers have been sent home even though I feel that with Germany and Spain going far Stark and Carballo weren't going to get SF or Finals Anways. Cakir and Thompson I feel will get the SF's. Could you give the Final to Lannoy? Well...Yes... Do I wish that to happen..HECK NO.. Proenca will obviously get no more Middles. I feel UEFA has put themselves in a Fix here. If Webb Gets the Final, it will be that he has gotten two (or even 3 counting UCL '10) major Finals in 3 years. I don't care What anybody says. That is UNFAIR considering FDB and others got NONE (yes I am still salty over UEFA/FIFA FDB constant sunbb!! lol) if Rizzoli gets it the argument will be that Italy has (perhaps unfairly with Collina in charge) supplied the past 2 Referees for past 2 Euro Finals. Also could be seen as a biased that could be re-inforced with Collina in charge of referees. My argument now shifts to one Damir Skomina. I honestly thought he might get the final. Yes I did. He showed me yesterday that he just isn't quite ready for a major final. He was ok as the German ruthlessly dispatched the Greeks but had the Germans been a team of even a wee bit lower skill set, that game could have gotten out of hand. From the way it is shaping up the team that will appear on the final will be professional and not go out there and try to kill each other "cough, Oranje, cough." It therefore means that the final should be within the refereeing ability of any of the Referees that were at Euro but then again you just want that referee with that reserve in case on national coach want to make this just more than a soccer game...