A big part of this depends on how he does in Brazil. There's no splitting hairs, he almost has to get to the quarters for this to truly be a success. He's raised the bar. Making the knockouts would still be good bc the WC isn't exactly easy. But I think most people are expecting more than that now and they aren't exactly wrong for that. Quarterfinals and he's got another 4 years for sure. Even the knockouts following a really strong group performance might get it for him.
I subscribe to the line of thinking that Lost University touched on above. That is, the results of managers in a second cycle are generally less than expected. Assuming a good showing in Brazil, the opportunity for US Soccer IMO is to support the foundation laid by JK by retaining JK in a very visible (and authoritative) role while successfully transitioning into the manager role a replacement. Should the replacement fail, JK could always step in at "the last minute". IMO in the scenario above, it is JK's call on his replacement; not Gulati's. Can/will Sunil let a subordinate make the call? That is going to be the issue post Brazil.
I want an American coach after 2014 - Jurgen has done his job well, but now it's time to move on. Otherwise national team managers go stale after 3-4 years. I'd like one of: Jason Kreis, Dominic Kinnear, or Peter Vermes.
I'm more-or-less on board with what you're talking about. But the sticking point to me is "who exactly is the replacement?" That's a big deal. If it's somebody like Herzog, I think that could be a good thing. Not so much if it's Vasquez. If Herzog, working for/with Technical Director Klinsmann wanted to keep on Vasquez as an assistant on his staff, that's fine. I do want Klinsi to stick around, but I don't think I want Klinsmann coaching us day-to-day next cycle. I think we'll need a new set of eyes and a new voice selecting rosters and starting lineups and talking to the guys at halftime, lest we get into a lull. But Klinsi can talk to him. And Klinsi can hire/fire our youth national team coaches, work with the D.A., and set the curriculum and structure of coach and referee education in this country, and so forth.
He should be the technical director after 2014. MLS coach such as Jason Kreis should be our NT coach...
The jury is still out. Everything depends on Brazil. That is the standard. If he does well, great we can give him another cycle. If it is a trainwreck, we need a new guy. JK has had a good run this year and has done very well, insane decisions be damned. But, that has made most forget crazy talking, defensive bunkering, Danny Williams is our best RM JK. But, now the stakes go up and all the chips are on the table, so we will finally see.
Regardless if we lose all 3 matches, or win the World Cup - I still want a new coach after 2014. No matter how Jurgen does, he will have done the best he can with the players he has at his disposal. Really - if we reach the quarters or semis or even the final, there's no guarantee he could repeat that success in 2018 (or do better).
As I said/posted before, depends on who we get in the round of 16. If we finish 2nd in the group we could face Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Netherlands, Germany. I would not expect us to get passed any of those 5 so hopefully we get a different 1st place team (Belgium would also be scary), or we can win the group (those 5 teams could also stumble in the group and finish 2nd).
I like the idea of one and done for a national team manager. JK should step aside after the WC and be the Chief Technical Director of US soccer instead. I'm not sure who would be next up. If it's an American you'd imagine guys like Kries or Vermes up there. Who knows who the foreign coach would be. After the next cycle (so for WC 2022), I wouldn't mind Porter getting a shot (if he's still doing well) when we have more his style players to choose from in our pool.
Kries looks like he wants NYCFC. Vermes/Kinnear I have far less confidence in coaching our NT than bringing Jurgen back another cycle. Kinnear is probably the most overrated coach on these boards. Hou often plays ugly, tactically poor footy and he has a shit understanding of the players and quality he needs for the system he's tried to implement for years. Just look at Hou's roster. He has little clue what he's doing. Guys like Porter/Kries produce far better footy with similar wage bills. Kinnear is more Tony Pulis than Caleb Porter, even though I know Hou fans will disagree. Porter is the MLS coach I'd have confidence in, yet I think next cycle is too early. Maybe 2019-2022. Another factor is there will likely be a fair bit of player turnover next cycle. Fair amount of new talent will be brought in over the next 3 years. The old guard will slowly get replaced, even guys like Landon/Clint. I don't think it gets stale next cycle. Not with this up and coming generation.
I don't think national team coaches should get two cycles, though to be fair, JK hasn't had a complete one yet due to the fact that he was appointed after the 2011 Gold Cup. I love what JK has done for the team, but unless we get a quarterfinal or semifinal run in Brazil next year, we should look to a new coach after the World Cup. Marcelo Bielsa perhaps?
And England was one of the weaker of the european teams we could have drawn. That was likely the best possible draw to get the USA to survive the group stage. Odds are we will have a much tougher draw in Brazil.
And if the referee in the Slovenia game wasn't an idiot we'd have 7 points out of 9. THere are a lot of "ifs"
This too is in our hands. Win in the group stage and get an "easier" opponent. It's something to judge him on but not the only thing. The circumstances and general progress will be taken into account as well.
I agreed up to the part abput letting Klinsi pick a replacement. That usually is not a good idea, imo.
Statman, I like the way you back your opinion up with a replacement. It isnt enough to say Klinsi falls short; it only matters if a better replacement can be nominated. This thread needs a post from somebody who is knowledgable about salaries who can tell us who would realistically be available. Chelsea managers always get released quickly so Mourinho should be looking for a job but would we be anywhere near his demands? Capiello has done a great job with Russia. How will Pepe make out with Bayern? How much would we pay up for a top notch prospect? I dont know much about this stuff so maybe one of our posters could lay down some realistic parameters.
I do not know if it is always a good idea to replace the National coach after one (1) WC cycle. Jurgen has earned a second "term" because of the qualification campaign. Maybe I'd change my mind if the USA gets zero points at the WC. The WC is always a crapshoot; we very likely will be underdogs to at least two (2) of the teams we will be facing in the group stage.
Vermes got out coached by Kinnear in playoffs last 2 years. Kinnear is more Bruce Arena mold. Porter and Kreis play your more proactive style. Porter isn't ready, he ********ed up in Olympic qualifying. But no guarantee Kreis is ready either. Kreis Kinnear Sigi Next cycle will be without Dempsey and Donovan. I bet good money they retire from internationals after the World Cup.
Klinsmann is German, there have been a few German coaches that have had success after their first cycle....as in winning WCs...
My impression is that BB was trying to re-work the team a little. Test new things while we had a lot of time to try things out. Great, in concacaf in the year after a WC. Then he got spanked by a really good Mex team. I don't think BB really deserved to be canned. But, things are going well, so I'm not griping.
Bielsa: has the international profile but wouldn't be crazy expensive. Has a record of transforming programs; respected everywhere for his tactical nous. Kinnear: knows how to win with limited resources. excellent record developing players. very good in knockout matches Kreis: turned around a garbage team and has posted an exceptional record. also excellent in knockout matches including at interleague level.