"The World Health Organisation warned on Saturday of a worldwide health threat as a mystery killer pneumonia spread from east Asia to other parts of the globe. Releasing a rare "emergency travel advisory." http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...=/nm/20030315/ts_nm/health_pneumonia_who_dc_8 Apparently nine people have died around the world, including two in Canada. An American who was doing businesss in Asia has also died. The first outbreak was in February in China's Guangdong province.... 305 people were infected and five died.
Mystery Disease Is anyone else out there worried about this? http://www.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/03/17/mystery.disease/index.html I mean, when the CDC warns against travel to Canada, it might be time for concern ... or maybe I'm paranoid because I woke up at about 1 am on the couch last night and started watching an MSNBC/Forrest Sawyer report on Russia's weaponizing of the bubonic plague.
I saw it on TV this morning or at least stories about it, I am getting a bit scared. NBC reported the following facts.... 1. It isn't responsive to antibiotics so it is probably viral. 2. The way it is spread is by close contact with the person carrying it. So the odds are most are ok.
Reasons for optimism is that Chinese officials are saying the disease is petering out and I believe HK health officials said they have discovered a fairly effective treatment - anti-viral drugs and steroids.
There's a possible case of it in Los Angeles now: http://www.sacbee.com/state_wire/story/6290365p-7244067c.html
I wonder what BigSoccer's Dr. Mike thinks of this? He is a former long time CDC'er that is now doing consultation work for 'em.
I'm sitting at CDC right now, but I've been away for 4 days and don't know much more than any of you. Let's get a few fact straight. The case-fatality rate is around 2 or 3%. (12 deaths and somewhere around 400 cases. Contact seems to have to be prolonged and intimate (heatlh care workers taking care of a patient). Antibiotics don't work, which is true of virtually all viral pneumonias. The disease has been in existance for at least 6 weeks in China, where it doesn't seem to be spreading rapidly. Therefore it doesn't seem to be some sort of Andromeda strain. Routine viral and bacterioligcal cultures are negative.. it might be a "new" organism. Ebola, Lassa, and Marburg all started that way, and none have turned into a world-wide plague despite the fact that there is nothing we can do against any of them except isolate the patients. My bet is that quite soon we will have data on (1) the incubation period, and (2) the period of infectivity. That will give us a lot to go on. There are a number of good people in a number of labs who are working on this, and I doubt it will be long before some good specimens are obtained which will yield a causative agent. Keep tuned by checking www.cdc.gov
12 people have died? Worldwide? I better log off now and encapsulate myself in my underground bunker. This is just way too high a number for me to handle. why are schools not yet shut down? Why are we even still allowed outside? How have the borders not yet been shut down? What about the children? Has anyone thought of the children?
New data- tissue from the lungs, spleen and liver of a recent death show changes consistent with viral invasion, not bacterial. This is pretty good evidence that we are dealing with a virus. There are several foks here betting that this will be a recombinant (naturally occuring) influenza strain, probably avian in origin, which is not well-adapted to human-to-human transmission. This is just a theory right now.
I think the infected count is up to 10 or 11 in Canada now. According to the news I read there was 1 case in Vancouver, 1 in Edmonton and the rest were in Toronto, which is an odd distribution.The papers were reporting that the disease was not responding to a cocktail of antibiotics and antivirals. However I think they've since changed that as the patients currently being treated seem to have stabilized.... Most victims were in close contact with the person who first came down with the illness. (Mother, son and family physician have all contracted the disease). http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030318.ubugg0318/BNStory/National http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20030318/UVICTN//?query=SARS http://www.canada.com/vancouver/story.asp?id=4541C8A5-BB85-4361-9A51-A0230BCDC8E9
I live in Hong Kong. I have a young daughter at home. My wife travelled frequently..... so she might catch it on the aircraft. I am more worried about her than my daughter. One of the dead was actually an American. The U.S. Consulate General in HK issued a statement explaining that there should be no fear. It seems more interested in the upcoming Gulf War. Having said that, my wife will be sent to Bahrain in two weeks. I told her that her trip will be canceled because of the war. So far, they are moving her to UAE. She is still going....
The Germans have apparently isolated a virus, not yet fully characterized, from 2 patients. it seems (very preliminary) a bit like Nipah virus, which is quite lethal but not too rapidly spreading.
There are now 3 isolates, one each in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Germany. All seem like a paramyxoma virus. Incubation period is from about 3 to about 7 days.
Definitely a paramyxoma virus, which means that (possibly) the rather expensive antiviral ribavirin might be of some use. Cases seem to have respiratory distress iwthout much pneumonia.
WHO now says 3% case fatality rate, and suggests that routine use of properly fitted masks should reducd or eliminate transmission.
The common cold has mutated into a 4th genetic strain and has resulted in SARS (Severe Accute Respitory Sydrome) and has been identified as the culprit...but further testing by the CDC is needed.
Yea, a coronavirus. CDC has had very littel in the way of specimens, and labs in three other nations have insisted that its a paramyxovirus. Interesting. It COULD be a dual infection.... but that is unlikely.