PBP: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump :: Election Day Thread [R]

Michael McDonald says that the early votes are a few million more than Biden’s total in 2020. FWIW.

 

Nevada has automatic voting registration that defaults to unaffiliated. So, unaffiliated voters there are disproportionately young people who just got drivers licenses see, or just move to Nevada. Also, many of them didn’t really choose to be unaffiliated. Does that mean they’re D leaning young people? Maybe. That’s the theory behind Ralston’s late switch to picking Harris to eke out a win.

 

My bad

 

Early in the day, or early before election day?

 

Yes.


Oh, what's that? You were asking about early voting and not when is the right time to start drinking?

 

FWIW......I am trying to understand what that meant.....This is Georgia btw.....

“The early Black vote turnout has surpassed just over a million. That’s about half of the total Black voters on the rolls — in a state with the largest share of Black voters of any battleground.”

 

Before.

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/11/couple-of-early-turnout-notes

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

 

Samuelson is an other expert in the field....Things are getting better for the Ds in NV.

EDay Turnout - Clark County, NV
11/5/2024 - 12:50pm

Dem 25,304 (31.5%) +2,106
Rep 23,198 (28.9%)
Other 31,742 (39.6%)

Total 80,244

Dems now at D+2.6 vs Reps. Dems' raw vote margin starting to increase a bit faster, separating them from Reps in the graph. pic.twitter.com/v4sAGCZ80d

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 5, 2024

 

I'm curious to know how many of you Republicans decided to not vote for Trump or voted against him. What was the main driver behind your decision to abstain or vote Harris?

— Unfiltered☢Boss (@Unfilteredboss1) November 4, 2024

Interesting to read all the Republicans that are either leaving the Presidential slot blank or voting Harris.

And there are a lot of them.

 

I'm just going to assume the people Stanger's referring to are lying in order to massively increase disappointment for us later.

 

@Brilliant Oranje here’s a teeet from a former GOP insider pointing out that GOPs have been stronger with early voting, and that 2020 was an anomaly caused by Trump.

What an idiot. Republicans over performed Dems in early voting for decades. Early voting programs were the crown jewels of RNC, NRSC, NRCC (you can have someone google those for you, Elon.)

Last cycle, idiot child Trump told Rs not to vote early. The Rs responded on cue.… https://t.co/fFkcad9Nsd

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) November 5, 2024

 

Remember that the pollster who had good numbers for Trump in PA halved the black vote in his weighting. The turnout in Philly suggests that was a mistake.

 

It took several days to count every ballot in 2020, and it’s very likely we won’t know the outcome tonight either. So please keep a few things in mind as you make your voice heard today:

– Thousands of election workers around the country are working hard today. Respect them.…

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) November 5, 2024

 

Funny enough, Michael Mc Donald wrote that the E-Day vote appears to be more democratic. Elon's head is going to explode.....(I wont care...). This moron doesn't understand that Philly has a huge reservoir of votes coming on E-Day.

Election Day Less Republican This Election?
Very busy but wanted to fire this off. Delaware provided me a noon turnout report that shows indications that Election Day vote is more Democratic than the in-person early vote.

 

Given that Trump’s strategy was turning out propensity young male voters, on the surface record breaking turnout is a good sign for Trump. If the “unexpected” voters are from that demo, tonight is going to be rough.

Anyone have access to the age and gender breakdown of the same day vote?

 

Philly is going to break their record of 750K in 2020. It is almost certain. A lot of pollsters will look silly....
I was tracking the turnout numbers on this site but I guess their server is overwhelmed...

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

 

McDonald tweet that same day voting in Nevada is more D than normal.

Starting to see evidence Election Day in Nevada is not going to be as red as the past. May even be blue https://t.co/kjTiYwrtuN

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 5, 2024

One thing about Trump…the man motivates voters like no individual in American history. We had sky high turnout in the late 19th century, but that wasn’t because of any one person. This is all him. No question that history books will call this the Age of Trump.

 

Samuelson said the same....posted it above. The Rs are getting nervous about Nevada.

 

Jim Messina (former Obama campaign manager) says Republicans hold the advantage when it comes to the early vote. He also says many Dems are panicking right now

https://www.tiktok.com/@westtxoandgchemguy2024/video/7433269819383827743?_r=1&_t=8r91TmzyKOr

 

More news from Nevada....

@davidsacc12345

I don't make vibes based predictions (there are many reasons for this,) but it's looking like my model was wrong about Nevada being Tilt R The Ralston prediction is GOATed, and the ED data (I hate ED data, but NV is the only state where it's usable) is showing a Tilt D race

 

I want to pat myself on the back a bit here. I think it was about 10 days ago that it really hit me that the polls were fake. Which way I had no opinion, but the extremely, impossibly similar results between pollsters, both nationally and in each state, made it clear to me that they were pulling their punches so to speak. Nobody wanted to be the outlier, until Selzer.

I kind of expect either Harris wins the PV by 5-7 and thus the presidency, or it’s 50-50 like 2000 or even a slight edge for Trump and it’s Trump. I don’t really expect the polls from a week ago to be accurate at all.

We’ll know a lot more in about 4 hours. We might know Georgia and NC both by then; Harris winning both means it’s all but over.

 

I don’t have TikTok. Can you give a summary?

Anyway, it doesn’t change the fact that you were wrong about the partisan breakdown of traditional early voting. If you get your info from Musk, well, that’s a bad idea.

 

Florida has turned into a bloodbath for Trump.
Right now its 43.29% for Trump and 31.79% for Harris.

Just one cavaet though, this is assuming all (or most) republicans are voting for Trump.
If many are voting for Kamala then she might win.
Also it depends on who the independents vote for.

Source: https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live/