Well, Klinsmann's first complete calendar year at the helm of the USMNT is in the books, complete with a January camp, some high profile friendlies, a more extensive chance to familiarize himself with our player pool, and one full round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying in the books. So, how have we (and he), done. Opinions are sure to vary, but let's take a look at what the numbers say first, and let that try to inform our opinions. For both team performance and individual player callups and caps, I'll break things down into 4 categories: 2011 (JK only), 2012, overall, and WCQ. Then try to offer my thoughts. I. Team Performance A. Klinsmann Era Year: W-D-L, PCT, Point%, Win%; GF, GA, GD, Goal/Game, Goals Against/Game 1. 2012: 9-3-2, 0.750, 0.714, 0.643; 23, 13, +10, 1.643, 0.929 2. 2011 (JK): 2-1-4, 0.357, 0.333, 0.286; 5, 7, -2, 0.714, 1.000 3. Overall: 11-4-6, 0.619, 0.587, 0.524; 28, 20, +8, 1.333, 0.952 4. WCQ: 4-1-1, 0.750, 0.722, 0.667; 11, 6, +5, 1.833, 1.000 ------------------------------------------------- B. Comparison To Recent Performance: Yearly 1. 2012: 9-3-2; 0.750, 0.714, 0.643; 23, 13, +10, 1.643, 0.929; SF WCQ 2. 2011 (JK): 2-1-4; 0.357, 0.333, 0.286; 5, 7, -2, 0.714, 1.000; FR only 3. 2011 (BB): 4-2-4; 0.500, 0.467, 0.400; 11, 13, -2, 1.100, 1.300; Gold Cup 4. 2010: 5-4-5; 0.500, 0.452, 0.357; 19, 21, -2, 1.357, 1.500; World Cup 5. 2009: 13-3-8; 0.603, 0.583, 0.542; 43, 36, +7, 1.792, 1.500; HEX, ConCup, B Gold Cup 6. 2008: 9-2-3; 0.714, 0.690, 0.643; 30, 8, +22, 2.143, 0.571; KO WCQ, SF WCQ 7. 2007: 12-1-5; 0.694, 0.685, 0.667; 31, 19, +12, 1.722, 1.056; Gold Cup, Copa America (B) 8. 2006: 6-3-3; 0.625, 0.583, 0.500; 20, 14, +6, 1.667, 1.167; World Cup 9. 2005: 13-4-3; 0.750, 0.717, 0.650; 33, 12, +21, 1.650, 0.600, HEX, B Gold Gup 10. 2004: 8-6-1; 0.733, 0.667, 0.533; 28, 9, +19, 1.867, 0.600, KO WCQ, SF WCQ ----------------------------------------------------------- C. Comparisons to Recent WCQ Rounds: Year, Round, Record (W-D-L), PTS, Place, GF, GA, GD, Opponents 1. 2012 SF: 4-1-1, 13 PTS, 1st, 11, 6, +5; Jamaica, Guatemala, Antigua & Barbuda 2. 2009: Hex: 6-2-2, 20 Pts, 1st, 19, 13, +6; Mex, Hon, CR, El Salvador, T&T 3. 2008 SF: 5-0-1, 16 PTS, 1st, 14, 3, +11; T&T, Guatemala, Cuba 4. 2008 KO: 2-0-0, 9-0 Aggregate win (8-0 H, 1-0 A); Barbados 5. 2005: Hex: 7-1-2; 22 Pts, T1st, 16, 6, +10; Mex, Costa Rica, T&T, Guatemala, Panama 6. 2004: SF: 3-3-0; 12 Pts, 1st, 13, 3, +10; Panama, Jamaica, El Salvador 7. 2004: KO: 2-0-0, 6-2 Aggregate win (3-0 H, 3-2 A); Grenada 8. 2001: Hex: 5-2-3, 17 Pts, T2nd, 11, 8, +3; Costa Rica, Mexico, Honduras, Jamaica, T&T 9. 2000: SF: 3-2-1, 11 Pts, 1st (1 pt ahead of 3rd), 14, 3, +1; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Barbados 10. 1997: Hex: 4-5-1, 17 Pts, 2nd, 17, 9, +8; Mexico, Jamaica, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Canada 11. 1996: SF: 4-1-1, 13 Pts, 10, 5, +5; Costa Rica, Guatemala, T&T ----------------------------------------- D. Analysis .First things first, it is kind of dangerous to just compare years without context. Is it a World Cup Year? A Gold Cup Year? A Hex Year with B Gold Cup? Or a WCQ semifinal year? I think it is more instructive to compare apples to apples, instead of just random years to random years. Managers will be at different points in their evaluation process depending upon what type of year the team is facing. And the competition faced will also vary. That being said, it is hard to argue that we started out poorly in JK's tenure in the last half of 2011. No question about it. There were certainly flashes of great offensive play (the Costa Rica match without joy and the Slovenia match with it) and we looked like we belonged on the same pitch as Mexico for a half, but the results overall were simply not good at 2-1-4. However, we weren't over .500 with BB at the helm in 2011 either, nor were we in 2010. But that isn't necessarily apples to apples. In the last half of 2011 JK had only friendly matches, and there was indeed some experimentation. I think the more accurate comparison should be how did the manager do in a full year, compared to other similar years in previous cycles. Though you'll lose some player cohesion doing it that way. It's hard to argue that 2012 wasn't a better year than 2011 results wise. First time wins @Italy, Mexico, and a draw in Russia were great results wise. The 9-3-2 record was the best (percentage wise) since 2005. The results were very comparable to how we performed in the similar year in teh cycle in 2008 (9-2-3), and 2004 (8-6-1). We held opponents under 1 goal per game for the first time since 2008, and if one counts JK's tenure in 2011 as a separate year, we've held our Goals against at 1.000 or below in consecutive years for the first time since 2004-2005. However, there has been a tradeoff. The offense certainly improved in 2012 to 1.643 goals per game, but overall, JKs era still lacks punch because of the disastrous start, averaging only 0.714 GPG in the last half of 2011. Still, the team was scoring at 1.100 GPG under Bob in 2011, and both numbers are significantly below historical averages for the last 10 years or so. However, 1.6+ is back in realm or normal, though a bit on the low end. I think CONCACAF improvement, Donovan's extended absence for the first time in 10 years, and the absence of a KO round in CONCACAF qualifying (no 8-0 Barbados game this time) and us failing to put a hurt on our SF minnow opponents at home (defection riddled Cuba and Barbados in previous years) all contributed to the less than stellar goal output. But there have been flashes: 3 against Slovenia, 2 against a very stingy Russian side, and that pasting of Scotland, and the first half against Jamaica. Another factor could be that JK sees that the defense, particularly the center, is kind of shaky. And without a reliable #10 type, or a very productive forward, he realized outscoring opponents wasn't going to work very often. He tried Torres/Dempsey type dual 8s early on, but since has gone the other way, with 4-2-3-1 or a 4-1-4-1 setup with 3 defensive minded CMs in a triangle most often, and sometimes another at RM as well. This way, it helps to shore up the shaky D, and has done so, but we've been less explosive offensively. ================================================ Bottom line, 2011 was shaky, but things stabilized in 2012 and we had a very good year. Qualifying was a bit more difficult than last time, but on par with 1996 and not as heart stopping as 2000, though it was close there for a couple minutes against Guatemala. I'll try to post some more numbers on player call-ups and caps, later in the week, but this post is too long already.
A fit and motivated Donovan and a good CB partner for Cameron. That's what we're missing. Add those two players and we improve significantly. There are a couple of other issues as well. The tactical issue of how to get Bradley and Jones to mesh is one. The other is how to get Jozy to play with the national team like he plays for Verbeek. It's not that hard to see a vision of a US team that again competes with Mexico for dominance in the region and can be expected to last at least to the knock-out stage of the World Cup if all that works out, but then again, it's not hard to see this team just barely dogfighting a team like Panama or Jamaica for a playoff against New Zealand and a quick unceremonious WC exit if a few persistent issues remain issues, and one or two other important players (ie Dempsey, Bradley, Fabian Johnson) end up having injury issues or form issues over the next year and a half.
Props on the thread....just watched Moneyball this weekend so I thought I'd toss out a couple of items of data. (All from the US Soccer website on Statistics for USMNT) In 2012 Coach K used 52 players, compared to 48 for Coach Bradley in 2008 and 46 for Coach Arena in 2004 (04 & 08 being the equivalent year in the WC cycle) In 04 we played 15 games compared to 14 each in 08 & 12. Coach K played one more 'Camp Cupcake' game in '12 than the other two years, accounting for the higher # of players used. What jumped out at me for 2012 is the Assist Leader. Guess who? None other than Jermaine Jones with 3! Bradley & F. Johnson added 2 each. Note that in 2011 Bradley was the leader with 3, but before that for 7 years running (2004-2010, '04 being as far back as the statistics go) the leader in the clubhouse was Donovan. Clearly, to paraphrase Clavijo 'Where is the next Donovan?" If you go by minutes played, here is JK's favorite lineup in 2012: Howard, TimGK Jones, JermaineM Cameron, GeoffD Bradley, Michael M Gomez, HerculezF Cherundolo, Steve D Bocanegra, Carlos D Dempsey, ClintF Johnson, FabianM Edu, MauriceM Goodson, Clarence D Yup, the triple CB formation...(F. Johnson is listed as a Mid-fielder on the US Soccer site) Interesting enough is that D. Williams, Donovan & G. Zusi are the #12, 13, 14 on the list and I'd see all three starting as of 2013, (assuming L.D. doesn't retire). So JK's starting lineup based on minutes played, positions played and these 3 moving in would be: Gomez Dempsey Donovan Bradley Zusi Williams F. Johnson - Bocanegra- Cameron - Dolo Howard Goodson, Edu & Jones sit, ...which of course means you're sitting your 2011 assist leader....akin to trading Jeremy Giambi in the Moneyball movie. Heaven forbid if Donovan really does retire...it means he's replaced by Jones or Edu in this lineup, a grouping of midfielders that Coach K has invoked in the past and seems to favor.
I would argue that you answered your own question in that sentence. Michael Bradley is obviously a different player than Landon Donovan, but for me, he's the one we build around in the post-Donovan world.