PBP: Jornada 37 | La Liga BBVA 14/15 | Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona | 17 MAY 2015 [R]

Presuming we won't have Suarez. Will we not have Alves?

I don't think that the fact that we only need three points out of these last two matches means we can safely take this match less seriously and count on three points from Deportivo. Surprise disasters happen that way.

 

Oh yeah, Liga is on, and can be won here in Madrid. And while we are tired we have a full week off ahead of what, if we win, will be a truly meaningless game at home to Deportivo. Then another week to prepare for CdR final at home to Athletic, and one more week before Berlin. So point is we get lots of rest in the very near future, we play a huge club, which like us needs just 3 points to wrap up 3rd place (avoiding CL final round playoff just before group stages), so the match is meaningful for both clubs.

So we rest Suarez and possibly Alves too (he trained by himself as well today) but otherwise it is Bravo and the grand 10 I'd think:

So I'd expect this:
Bravo
Alves (Montoya if Alves injured) - Pique - Mascherano - Alba
Rakitic - Busquets - Iniesta
Pedro - Messi - Neymar

Edit - It would be great to get Xavi on (could be his last game in Madrid and he is also a great sub for calming things down and controlling midfield possession).

 

I hope Pedro plays well. Even without the overhead kick, I was really enjoying his contributions in the Sociedad match; but when he came @ Bayern he underwhelmed, at least for me. He could be a real hero here.

One worry I have: one of the benefits of Suarez is that when we figured out that the best place to put him was in the center, and moved Messi out to the right, we re-discovered something that was obviously true back before the 2010-2011 season: Messi thrives out there. A central forward that's a real threat pulls defenders and creates space that Messi, on the outside, can run into. So this year, in addition to his fantastic role as a distributor, we've seen Messi make the kind of runs that we didn't see with him in the middle and Alexis Sanchez outside. Now for this match, he'll almost certainly move into the center with Pedro outside, and I just don't think he's as effective there. (I'm not saying he won't play very well; just that I think he's even better when he can make a diagonal dribble into the box or cut in with the ball across the top of the box.

I really feel for Pedro. With Messi/Neymar/Suarez, how can he possibly be a regular starter? I can't blame him if he wants to leave and go somewhere he can make more of a regular contribution. But he's been a major component of this team in the past, and scored some absolutely fantastic goals for this team; and I'll be very sorry if he goes.

 

Regarding Pedro, it's a choice he has to make and imho, to be the first name in a teamsheet should not be the only paramter he should use to take a decision.

If he continues to play for Barca, he will be challenging for every trophy there is to win, and if we win CL this year, we will have even more games to play next season. So his playing time will be more next season. He is quite clearly the 4th option in attack now and he won't be in the teamsheet in big matches if everyone is healthy, but injuries can happen and he will be the first to replace that injured player in attack. I hope he continues in Barca as he is great to have as the fourth striker but if he leaves, I hope we use that money to buy Vietto, who i think will accept the bench for one or two seasons at Barca. And there is still Denis Suarez who I want to see at Barca next season.

 

Would love if everyone get rested , don't want anyone getting injured and miss on the 3 finals we are going to have in the next 3 weeks so :

----------------------------------------Bravo---------------
Montoya( or legend Douglas )---Bartra- lord Vermaelen ---Adriano
------------------------------------ --samper ----------
----------------------------Rafinha------------S.roberto--------
Adama-------------------------------Sandro-----------------------Munir

Atletico play like wrestlers on steroids when they play at home and use the crowd to put pressure on the referee while doing their ugly business , better stay safe and sacrifice those poor souls to keep the rest healthy for the title matches

 

Actually you're quite right.. a tough physical AM could leave everyone in Barca injured so hell yeah.. let the B-team win the La Liga!!

 

Good news is Alves trained with the full squad today (as did Munir who will likely be the 4th forward in Madrid). Bad news Suarez still trained alone and with medical staff hoping to get over hamstring. I don't see taking any chances with Luis in Madrid at this point so stick with my original prediction (Alves starts, Pedro for Suarez, otherwise grand 10). I don't know how serious the posts above were but I think we want to get the win in Madrid and we will just hope for no injuries.

 

Well, my post was serious when I said the same thing as you.

 

Let's hope MNP can do the business and let's end the season to become MVPs

 

Yeah, I meant Puyol's post about using B teamers to rest starters and avoid wrestling injuries. Seemed like a joke but always hard to tell, I don't even get emoticons too well but I think Forza was indicating he was in on the joke and/or laughing at Puyol if it wasn't a joke in his "affirmative" response to Puyol.

 

Unfortunately it looks like just a matter of time now. Good chance they'll already be relegated before the Depor match.

 

Yeah, fair enough. For some reason, him coming in from the side with Eto'o (or even Ibra) in the middle impressed me more than being surrounded by Pedro and Villa, or Alexis and Neymar.

 

Well this is all quoting from the sensational Sport translation to English but the number seem to work beyond the "Probability" at the end which has no statistical basis / citation:
These are the possible options:

+If Barcelona win, La Liga is theirs, regardless of Real Madrid's result.

+If Barcelona draw and Real Madrid win, we have to wait for the final week of the season to have a champion.

+If Barcelona draw and Real Madrid draw or lose, La Liga is theirs.

+If Barcelona lose and Real Madrid win or draw, we have to wait until the last week of the season to have a champion.

+If Barcelona and Real Madrid lose, Luis Enrique's team will be crowned champions.

Statistically, there is a 66% chance that Barcelona will be champions on Sunday night.

 

Do you happen to also know the overall chance, taking J38 into consideration as well?

 

You did see this was all from Sport and I mocked their 'scientific rigor' without citations about the whole 66% merde right, so yeah, don't have that, but for me personally I think we got this and hopefully it happens sooner (J37) than later (J38) but that 66% was not me, I mocked that ish. But I think you already know all that.

 

I want to know their algorithm

 

The pressure is immense tonight aswell imo.. im nervous as hell. If AM is tough leaving injured players.. and Barca drop points and then fearing Messi, Neymar missing Depor.. ooh god! Im sick to my stomach. Imagine Barca fail to beat Deportivo at home and lose la liga two year in a row in Camp Nou!! But I hope Lucho sees this as a final.. seal the deal tonight.. take no prisoners and get it over with since we cannot count on Espanyol.. I cant see them drawing LPB. FORZA BARCA!!!

 

Dude @Viscaelbarca .. I noticed its FC Barcelona v Atlético de Madrid in the threat title.. how are you? all well? Long season.. I know it affects the best of us.

 

Mathematically it's correct. There are two relevant matches today -- Barcelona @ Atletico, Real Madrid @ Espanyol -- and each match could end three possible ways. So there are nine possible outcomes for the set of two matches today: writing them as "Result-for-Barcelona/Result-for-LPB", they are: W/W, W/D, W/L, D/W, D/D, D/L, L/W, L/D, L/L. In six of those nine possible outcomes for the pair of matches, Barcelona is La Liga champion at the end of the day, as described in Gilmango's post above; while in the other three, things will be decided next weekend. That means in 67% of the possible outcomes, Barcelona wins the league today. That's a correct statement. But that's not the same thing as saying that we have a 67% chance of winning the league today. The problem with going from "in 67% of the possible outcomes, Barcelona wins the league today" to "we have a 67% chance of winning the league today" is that those nine outcomes do not each have an equal probability of occurring.