Jesse Marsch out at Leeds, rumored for Southampton job

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/sport/leeds-united/breaking-leeds-united-jesse-marsch-26069014

Chris Armas hired at Leeds as Jesse’s assistant.

 

I don't believe Leeds fans' believe they're "more ambitious at the top." The almost universally blame the board for their current predicament. They'd don't dislike Marsch. Many just think he's not up to the task, and never has been. At least that's my reading of the situation. They view his hiring in itself as a "lack of ambition."

I was reading a fan board last night which directed a lot of vitriol at the board. However, they don't want to bring that anger to the stadium (a la Everton). They want to fully back the players and staff.

 

Fans usually have little patience. It's not easy going from newly promoted to CL level team. Leeds was one of the lowest payroll teams and now they are just in the bottom half. If they stay up again this year they will inch upwards some more. Marsch wasn't an ambitious hire but unless they wildly overspent for a coach no one who viewed their situation was going be an ambitious coach. Now if they keep moving upwards and results stay where they are now Marsch will get sacked like any other coach they could have hired would. Since they have been in games and been close to getting results it will be interesting to see if a few new players in key spots will be the difference between getting a few more points in the second half than the first.

 

Yeah, I mean they won because Xavi and Iniesta, and throw in Busquets and Xabi, could control the game like no other midfield I've ever seen, and also Iniesta, Iniesta, Iniesta. France won because they have talent and Mbappe is basically unplayable at his best, and almost did it again. Argentina won because of a ton of grit and Messi. Anyway, comparing playing together at Leeds with Real or Barca is a bit of leap. I'm sure it won't hurt to have them play together, but I don't think it is a big a deal as people want to believe. I don't think the problem with the US this World Cup was lack of familiarity.

 

I sort of wonder if the fans outsized expectations are because they don't view themselves the same as a newly promoted clubs. Leeds was in the wilderness for a long time, but before they went down they had some decent success in the early days of the EPL, finishing in the top 4 or just outside a number of times (particularly from 1997 to 2002 when their lowest finish was 5th).

 

Obviously talent is the most important thing, but about half the World Cup winners have had 4 or more starters on the same club, and often are dominated by a couple of teams.

That's less frequent now with the current labor market, but it isn't a minor edge.

2014 Germany had 7 players from Bayern (and 4 from Dortmund).
2010 Spain was dominated by Barca and Madrid.
2006 Italy had 5 from Milan and 5 from Juve (and 4 from Roma).

The old Brazilian teams were heavy from one or two clubs; the 1990 Germany team had 6 Munich players, etc.

How much of that is chicken and egg is always a good question, but it is actually pretty common.

And it logically would give you an edge.

 

Saw a tweet today from a Leeds fan asking why fans are so worried about having 3 American players, but not about having 6 Spanish players. Every US fan knows the answer.

 

Well part of the answer is that Spain produces more good players. But we all know that generalizations can fail at the individual level.

 

Maybe, but to me this is just saying yeah top players play for top teams, which while I like all our guys on Leeds, and think they are improvements from the last generation, is not the case with Leeds.

 

Well, they were 9th their first year back in the Premier League under Bielsa. That's not ancient history. That was 2020-2021. The fans expected the board, etc. to build on that and compete for a move even further up the table. Instead, they went the opposite direction. The fans don't blame Bielsa for their backslide. They blame the board for not backing Bielsa with ambitious signings, etc.

Why should Leeds fans NOT think they should be where Brentford, Brighton, and Fulham are this season? Leeds is a BIGGER club than those three. [Of course so are West Ham and others.]

The thing with the Premier League now is EVERYBODY has money from tv deals, etc. Its provided a strange level of parity that didn't exist for a long time. Everybody at the bottom of the league is spending money this window. Bournemouth just spent 22 million euros on a 20 year old winger from Ligue 1. Bournemouth! 22 million!! And Lorient, competing for a place in Europe next season, sold one of their best players..........to Bournemouth. Bournemouth!

 

Like I said, yes, talent is most important. But not every very talented team has players on the same top teams; those teams aren't always that common. But they do seem to have a higher success rate than simply just having top talent.

How much is that worth? I dunno. But I find it hard to believe that understanding what your teammate is going to do, on what timing, is not a pretty big advantage.

I don't think anyone is saying that this elevates Weston McKennie to become Kevin DeBruyne or something; it's just that him, Aaronson and Adams playing together consistently will help them perform better for the national team.

 

Maybe, I just I'm just the skeptical type and think overall, talent is far more of a determining factor. Plus, the US doesn't have a manager, and when they will, will they be playing similar enough to Marsch's style? Will Aaronson even be a starter? Lots of questions still. Anyway, we will see how it all plays out for Leeds.

 

Though one of the problems with Biesla is that he was extremely particular about signings and so when the board tried to bring him different players, he rejected many of them wanting whoever his ideal option was. So it’s not like they weren’t trying to buy at all, but Biesla wouldn’t sign off on what the board wanted to do.

And one year as 9th doesn’t really mean much. Fulham is doing well this year but they have been a yo yo club for the last five years. This one good season in the EPL doesn’t mean all of a sudden they’ve figured it all out.

Brighton has showed more staying power, but their 5 years in the EPL have finished 15th, 17th, 15th, 16th, and 9th. That is not that different from Leeds. Brentford was 13th in their one full EPL season.

All three of those teams have done well thus far this year, but that doesn’t mean they’ve got things figured out or that they won’t fall down the table as the season progresses.

 

Of course talent is far more of a determining factor. I don't think anyone is saying that. But that doesn't mean it is an only factor. And knockout tournaments can often be decided on tiny moments.

 

Yes, it depends entirely on how profound your knowedge of the game is. For example, when a hockey player drops the puck into the zone and forechecks, is that an incomplete pass? In soccer, yes.

 

Jesse really wants that USMNT job,

 

How about coaches? Do they overrate him?

Here are the highlights vs Brentford. Even as heatmaps show Leeds' offense went down the left side, Aaronson playing right attacking mid seems to make an appearance in every play (he goes off at 69' tho). Even that counter at 4:33 starts with a Koch recovery, pass to Aaronson who sends a little back pass under pressure to Ayling who boots the ball into the attacking half for the counter. Ayling is rounding into form and it looks like he is enjoying playing with Aaronson. Fun to watch Ayling making a comeback. He was good for Bielsa who was first Prem coach to put Aaronson on his radar.

 

What exactly are Leeds fans "outsized expectations"??? This is their 3rd year back in the PL, they were 9th 2 seasons ago, spent $100M last summer and right now are averaging less than a point per match and on pace for a 36 point season. I'd agree that any fans expecting them to be a consistent top 10 club at this point in time would have "outsized expectations" but I don't think it's unrealistic to be expecting a little more than narrowly avoiding relegation for a 2nd straight season. I suspect if right now they were sitting around where Palace is in the table most fans would admit (even if grudgingly) that that would be meeting expectations.

 

This makes for an excellent zen koan. As a response to my point -- that individual players can be judged on the quality of their play rather than team statistics, and that almost all observers recognize that Adams has outplayed Aaronson -- it falls a bit short.

 

I think the point is they have one of the lowest wage structures in the entire EPL. And that $100 million summer was financed by selling two key players, both of whom were very instrumental to the year they finished 9th.

Right now Leeds is paying for barely avoiding relegation, so they can’t be surprised when that’s where they end up.

Leeds doesn’t have quite the same resources of a Crystal Palace, though that seems to be changing with the increased investment from the 49ers. Once they full takeover, they should have more financial resources, which will lead to management having rising expectations of the team.

 

Phillips really did not fit Jesse's narrow, double pivot system. Rafinha is definitely a loss, but I look at the number of players Leeds signed during the summer (Aaronson, Adams, Roca, Sinisterra, Kristensen, Gnonto) with three of them very familiar with Jesse's Red Bull influenced approach, and I would hope that Leeds would be a little higher in the table than 3 points out of last place.

 

Phillips was hurt a lot last season which probably contributed to them being in a relegation battle. But the year before when they finished 9th he was a very big part of why they did so, and then he played very well in the Euros that summer. He's a very good player and selling him helped them finance this summer purchases.

It's not like everyone else in the EPL stayed the same, and alot of the teams ahead of them still have more talented rosters.

 

Eh, most semi-reputable sites that estimate PL wage bills have Leeds with a wage bill meaningfully higher than 3 clubs and roughly in line with the next 5 or 6. Since they were promoted to the PL back in 2020 they have a net transfer spend of ~$200M (and that's not counting their purchases this month which have pushed it to ~$240M and potentially even higher if McKennie signs). Sure, their spending this summer was funded by selling two very good players (though one of those missed more than half the 21-22 PL season due to injury), but they did get inflated prices for both of them and then plowed all ~$100M back into the squad. Like I said above, expecting to regularly repeat that 9th place finish certainly would be unreasonable, but 3 points out of last place and on pace for another 36 points season...fans have a right not to be pleased.

As an aside, Crystal Palace's net spend over the past 3 seasons is only half as much as that of Leeds.

 

I think it's a pretty relevant fact that only three clubs have a smaller wage bill that Leeds.

Crystal Palace has also been in the EPL for a much longer time period than Leeds, and accordingly has much less of a need to upgrade the squad. The longer you can stay up, the more you can bring up the quality of your team year by year. And they do spend a decent more on their wages than Leeds does. Including the last three years of transfer spending also includes the first year of Leeds back in the EPL (when teams tend to spend an outsized amount on new players).

Leeds btw is only 6 points back of Crystal Palace with a game in hand. If they win their next game (against Nottingham Forest) they'll be tied for 13th in the table and 3 points back of Crystal Palace. At that point the gap between them and Crystal Palace would be smaller than the gap between them and the relegation spots.

If expecting 9th isn't fair and they shouldn't be expecting a relegation battle, what are the expectations? To be Crystal Palace? Because if they win their game in hand they will be 3 points back of them.

But they are spending more money now, so rising expectations become more fair.

 

Midtable mediocrity, say something like a ~43-48 point season. And they've spent more than enough money in transfer fees and salary over the past few seasons (even before this January) that that isn't an unreasonable goal.