I've just finished working through MFLS and reading what I can about each teams' top-15 and I'm more convinced than ever that we're a 6th or 7th place team -- at best. It seems clear to me that LA, Columbus, Dallas and Kansas City (sleeper pick for MLS Cup) are better than we are (they are TEAMS). I think it's an open question whether we're better than Chicago, Colorado and New England. --If Chicago gets any sort of performance out of their front three (A-mid and forwards) they will actually be good. --New England figures to be better with the addition of Moore and Brown in net all season. --If Grimandi is still up to the task and Pablo plays the whole season this is a really good midfield. Defense is probably a little underrated too. We've probably got more talent than San Jose and the Metros, but the latter have got the other Bradley brother and I bet he pulls a smoke and mirrors job. I'm predicting we finish 6th or 7th, but wouldn't be surprised with 8th or even 9th. Fifth or better would be a success from where we are today (but not a success overall given the history of worst-to-first in MLS).
I don't think this DC United team is one you can judge right away. By that I mean that they will build momentum and be a real steamroller of a squad by the end of the season. I'm thinking back of the 1996 team (wishful, I know), when they positively sucked for the first few matches. Once they got going however, they were pretty formidable, upsetting the Mutiny, who were the class of the East for much of the season, and then the Galaxy. I understand they're not exactly scaring anybody now -- except maybe United supporters -- but by the end of the year, I expect them to be finishing strong. I predict they'll finish third in the East, behind New Joisey and New England.
I think its important that everybody knows their role and sticks to that. As long as everybody doesn't try and do too much to compensate for weaknesses (real and percieved) then we will do ok. We just have to remember to play as a TEAM and not a bunch of stars.
This is a team that will come on at the end of the season. They may struggle early, but I see no reason to give up hope already.
Actually what am I saying? I can't believe people are bailing on this team after the frickin' preseason! Come on! This is rediculous! Bobby Convey has been gone, we've had injuries out the wazoo, frickin' Galin Ivanov was playing midfield? Everyone decides to bail ship because we have a hairy chested Bulgarian defender playing in midfield. That's right, cancel the season, we suck. We might as well start up the conversations about Freddy Adu again because we aren't going to do anything for the next few years.
Don't Believe the Hype Don't believe the hype. Statistics are great ... attorneys use them every day to prove and disprove opposite points, because statistics can support any proposition if you know how to manipulate them. For instance. Do those fantasy statistics take into account players not in the league last season, such as Stewart, Ivanov, Eskandarian, Stokes and Carroll? What about the loss of players with horrible statistics such as Lazo, Abdul, Henry, Petter, Ivan, Richie, Eddie and Jaime? Do these statistics include the man-games lost by injury to Santino, Convey and Olsen? Or the missed games and adjustment period for players new to the league, city and team such as Milton and Eliseo? Do they factor in Eliseo's improved speed? How about the rebound effect of former All-Stars who had off years and needed a change of scenery such as Petke, Dema and Hristo? Did you do a "one year" stats check, or did you check it over 3+ years? Do your stats really track defending on an individual level at all? Do the statistics factor in the expected rough patch for most coaching transitions? Do the statistics discount the loss of players from the World Cup run? I'm curious, did you do any late season "trending" when the Galaxy, Revolution and United all got hot? This is by no means an exhaustive look at the statistics game, but I think I've made my point. Look at the players on the field. Don't believe the hype. -Tron
MLS has done such a good job of breeding mediocrity, or "parity" that telling me that DC United might finish between 6th and 9th place isn't telling me anything. I've thought that they can finish between 2nd and 9th place. It all depends on how well they come together as a team, and how other teams may (or may not) falter.
What? Over? Did you say "Over"? Nothing is over till we decide it is. Was it over when Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no... and it ain't over now! Cause when the going gets tough (long, long pause) the tough get going. Who's with me? Let's go -- AUUUUUGH!
The quality of play and the skills of the players are better every year. Believe me, to the unbiased fan, the first couple years were far, far worse than today. No defensive organization, a horrible pass every two or three touches, attackers clustered around the ball and not using space. If you think the present level of play is mediocre, then a few years ago, you would have to concede, it was abysmal. But if you fell that a good DC team making mince of a lot of really bad teams-- and THAT, my friend, was the truth of the league-- was better than medioce, not very many people are going to back you up. A few very partisan DC fans, but that's it. I know I'd much rather watch the teams as they're presently constituted play than the crapola that was on display for years. And if you look at the big picture, you would see just how wrong you are when you conflate "parity" with "mediocrity." (By the way, make sure to let LA know about BOTH parity and mediocrity before the season starts.)
The quality of the league was mediocre to bad in the early years and I agree with you, but I don't think you can lump teams like Vasco da Gama, Toluca, Leon, Saprissa etc....with those teams.
Hey, I said DC were good back then. We can dispense with the debate on international competition. But that still means there was ONE good team, out of ten, or twelve. There's much less mediocre soccer, game for game and team for team, then there was in the past-- certainly than in 1996, and probably in 2000. I'm warning against confusing the fact that your team gotten worse with the idea that the quality of soccer in MLS overall has worsened. It hasn't. It's way better. Last year's Metros sucked, but they were way, way better than most teams who made the playoffs in 1998.
I think Haig is right here. We have to be a good bit better than last year to even have a shot at the playoffs. But outside of LA, I think everyone could fall in the 2-10 slot depending on some breaks and injuries.
To even have a shot at the playoffs in a league where 8 of 10 teams make it, you really don't have to be any better than you were last year. You just need to get luckier in two games out of a 28-game season. It's hard to see how you could be less fortunate that DC's '02 vintage. But I can always hope.
Re: Don't Believe the Hype Who said anything about statistics? I went through and made my best guess as to who the starting XI and top subs would be for each team and then considered the quality of the players and the way they might reasonably fit together.
You're right, the overall play in MLS has gotten better. The tail end of MLS had caught up to the middle group. And Chicago and DC have been brought back to the pack as well. LA is next. It would have been nice if the whole league was elevated to where LA is, and Chicago and DC were. Instead of where Columbus has always been.
I agree w/ Mellon. In fact I expect us to struggle early. I was hoping that we'd come together faster than we have, but we still have outstanding players. Players who have been on winning sides and know what they are suppose to do. Ben will gain more speed as the season goes on. If Ben get's himself back up to USMNT starting caliber again, we'd have two of the best wingers in the league (at least US wingers). Eliseo will no doubt get better this season especially if he wants to get back into El Salvador's national program. Quaranta is in the same boat. He'll definitely improve. He's been out a year. His eyes have to be set on the Nats. While we all have opinions of Marco, he has proved that he can win. Hristo and Ernie are the same way. We know what they are capable of. There is just too much skill on the team to expect an 8th place finish. We'll start slow out of the gates (unfortunately) but we still own RFK. Last year we sucked and we still won at home. I expect the same to happen this season. It also depends how we finish not necessarily what place. If we finish the season winning the last 10 matches and end up @ 6th place, then DC would have be considered a contender. When it comes to playoff time, I'm expecting DC to be in the thick of it and considered a threat to win. I just don't see how THIS team cannot come together to play like we think they can. It will take a while, but i'm confident that it will occur.