Uh that scoring is down is not the reasoning I am using to for my argument that creativity is down. I came to that conclusion independently and when further evidence game to the fore I pointed to it. It is not the pinnacle of my argument.
That's the thing, essentially. People will accept much less in the way of evidence when it's in support of something they already believed. It was that way with the Iraqi WMD, it was that way with the "Bush Service Memos", it's that way with just about everything in the political world, because it's so ideological. One of the hardest things for anyone to do is reject a weak argument that supports their conclusions.
A) I suggested recently that it's more fitting to chart, as I believe the EPL teams do, shots on goal/GKsaves from the penalty box in addition to counting the save percentage in general. B) As to Crusio's assertion that stats don't tell you a dribbler from a screamer, one hopes that over the long-term, the screamers and dribblers would even out. C) The save percentage may not vary much with the number of saves in soccer, but it may in hockey and/or team handball where a GK may get so overworked, he'll begin to let in easy shots after taking a dozen of them off his noggin. D) To state the obvious, the save percentage has to be considered against the same competition as a Cobi Jones will likely shoot at a goalie's chest on a breakaway while a Thierry Henry would sidefoot it into the corner netting.
Building a entertaining league and entertaining what certain fans want for their team are two different discussions. If we are talking about what I would want for METRO, then I agree with you totally. Winning is my main concern. If we are talking about building MLS, then I disagree. A better quality of play would be more desirable.
And remember that every time he puts it on the woodwork, or in the fifth row, it doesn't count against the keeper's average.
You are probably right. There are some trends that might be reasonably correct. I was just pointing out that there tons of variables to consider outside the world of numbers.
On the bigger stat issue, there are probably some stats that would give you a better idea of the league's absolute level. Sidefoot's suggestion might well be one. Another might be "shots that miss by more than X amount." But those stats aren't getting colelcted by MLS. Perhaps that's because they're harder to collect, and most fans wouldn't follow them anyway. They'd rather offer up bullcrap like ". . . but Derek Jeter's a winner!" and "a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous lead in soccer!" (Thanks to numerista for that one ) In the meantime, Save Percentage, flawed though it might be, is probably the best stat MLS keeps. It at least makes an attempt to compare apples to apples. I'll take it against the goals scored average any day.
I'd love to take the credit, but that's Kenn's baby. Anyway, as a Quakes fan, I'm starting to believe in it! One other note that's relevant here ... during the conversation that sparked the whole BigSoccer stats interest, we discovered that teams that draw a lot of offsides calls also tend to have markedly lower save percentages. Because the offside trap has been gradually falling out of use, it may not be too surprising that save percentages are going up.
I understand that technically or physically the ball had no chance of going in if it hits the frame. However, I believe that could and does bring up the statistical oddity of a shot bouncing off the bar and going in without having been a 'shot on goal.' Something had to prevent the ball from going in the net for crying out loud, whether it's the keeper's hands or a few inches of woodwork is irrelevant imo. This thread was brought to you by the numbers 6, 10 and 12. In addition to the generous support of the Stats & Analysis Forum.
Yes, but in 1998 the Netherlands made it to the semifinals while Germany just made the quarterfinals. All in all, the Netherlands does remarkably well in the World Cup considering its relatively small size: World Cup Finalists since 1970 Brazil............170 million Germany.........80 million France............60 million Italy...............55 million Argentina........35 million Netherlands.....15 million
At the risk of dragging this thread completely off topic, it should also be noted that the Netherlands drawn alot of talent from their former colonies (Edgar Davids and a few other dutch players are originally from Surinam). Now, while i dont claim that even comes anywhere close to putting them over someone like Argentina, its something to consider besides just the population of the country.
The 2,004 Euros where Germany failed to win a game is more telling. Oh, and by the way, the comparison between the two countries youth development was provided to me by a <part-time> German youth coach, who lamented the state of the German youth soccer and extolled the Dutch soccer academies. (for fairness sake, I also recall a recent Marco van Basten quote that alluded that the Dutch are too offense oriented as they are likely to have midfielders playing defense, forwards playing midfield and so on, instead of fielding a Dutch Rusty Pierce) Then we reminisced about the olden days when the German teams gave up nothing in terms of skill. As I've been trying to tell here to a surprisingly stubborn resistance of several posters, during their glory era of the 1970s, the Germans were incredibly skilled and their 1972 Euro winning side is the best team that I've ever seen. Their problems in developing skillful players are of a far more recent vintage.
There're 2 players from Suriname (population: 400,000) on the present Netherlands team: Edgar Davids and Clarence Seedorf. All the rest of the players were born in Holland.
I think they resolve that one by cheating. . . if it goes in (or the GK saves it), it's an SOG. If it goes out or back into play, not an SOG.