Is Ukraine about to explode?

You keep missing the point. Ukrainians are Soviet, whether they like it or not. They would have to simply invent a "national identity", which would never work, because they'd still be Russians living on a different side of a river.

What national identity? What certain movement?

 

I never said things in Russia are what they should be, but we're not talking about Russia, the USA or Congo. The Ukrainians want to get another national identity and another state of democracy, and they're totally entitled to that. No reason to lay down your head. Obviously this won't change for the first decade, but these falsified election results are only a way to take the dynamism out of a certain movement that seems to be urging for a national identity.

 

That's an interesting bigsoccer phenomenon. I responded to tomo's post before he posted it. Beware by amazing powers of ESPN!

 

Topic content is a reason to adapt your language? If you're talking about hooligans you trash your computer?

 

What? Describing Ukranians accurately necessiates many of these epiphets. That's why they're being used. If you don't think Ukrainians (and Russians) are racist, xenophobic and totalitarian, you've simply never been there.

 

Look at the shots of all the people protesting, does seem a common interest no? The national identity obviously still needs to be created, but I don't agree they are Russians on a different side of the river. Their total history is Russian, but the last few years they're evolving to a separate entity. You can't erase the years before, but you also cannot hang on to an artificially influenced election. (Well, I mean, probably they can, but it's a shame)

 

There is nothing certain about the Ukrainian "movement". On one side you have Catholics in the West who yearn to be as Polish as possible. On the other you've got nutcases who erect monuments to Makhno and Bandera. Can Yushchenko, a supposedly West-leaning "liberal" be described as such with this kind of support?
Ukraine never had independence or a national identity separate from the Russians, there is no established philosophy or history to lean back on, unless you count Petlyura as a philosopher and the Zaporozhye Cossacks as an example of statehood.
The monument on Kiev's square is erected to Ukraine's greatest hero, Bogdan Khmelnitsky, who tore Ukraine away from Poland and reunified it with Russia.
The only certainty among the independence fighters seems to be that Shevchenko is way better than Cherenkov and that Kiev should be spelled with two or three y's.

And who is to say the Polish wannabes in the West should count more than the Easterners who barely know two words in Ukrainian?

 

'...accurately necessiates...'??????? Why would it? Might be a lot of them are racist, xenophobic and totalitarian, surely not all of them are. If you're talking about a political movement that has fascist ideas you're allowed to use any epiphet you like, but not when you're talking about a country, or its inhabitants.

 

Well anyway, I'm going to sleep now, 'cause the wife is urging for attention. You can always PM me or we'll discuss this through another time.

 

See, this is the biggest problem in your argument. You simply assume that the election results are not the correct representaion of the views of Ukrainian people because you find them unfortunate.
Well, fiddlesticks! Too bad!
I think that the Ukies elected whom they wanted to elect simply because abstract words like "freedom", "democracy" and "independence" don't mean as much to them as a rock-solid promise to raise pensions, make Russian a second national language and lower the prices on bread and vodka.

Which, in essnece, makes them bona fide, genuine, 100%-no-preservatives-added Russian.

 

@ nicephoras and Shurik:
How come the Germans had two countries for 40 years in the last century then? They were split: by force from outside AND by two ideologies. That's what's happening in the Ukraine. It has to decide whether it wants to go with the western Europen/American Ideology or with the Russian (you could say it is neosowjet).
The democrats in the Ukraine have a vision. The vision of the Ukraine being a western European country. They might be at the begin of a long road, yes, but they can still do it, if they don't turn around or get turnaround. If we as Europeans and Americans don't want them they'll just run back to Russia.

It is just cr.p (exuse my language) to say that there can't be a new country because some have been part of another. Tell that to the Irish, who almost entirely lost their language thanks to the English. Tell that to the Polish who lived under austro-prussian and russian rule for decades.
Take Austria, the german part of Switzerland and Germany as an example. One language. After all one culture. at this point of time one ideology.
But three different countries.
And you can find 2 ideologies in the Ukraine, as I said above.
Ideology is strong. Because of it the French revolution happened. Because of it America got it's independence. because of it thousand Europeans resisted the Nazis. Because of it we are where we are at this point of time. wealthy and free we are, as no other has been in mankind's history. It is part of both the American and European dream that we share those values and advantages, which liberty and prosperity are, and therefore we have to help democracy in the Ukraine and support it's independence

Hu, very pathetic, but hey, imo it is right.

 

So Shurik, why don't we just jump to the logical conclusion of your statements here and just say the Russian's should just "intervene to guarantee the saftey of Russians," and de facto reabsorb Ukraine? I mean that really is what you are implying isn't it?

Notwithstanding the fact that the Russian armed forces are a paper tiger who's only useful trait is (probably) being able to defend the Rodinya.

Since that isn't bloodly likely. Why don't we rationally discuss what is to be done? According to Rueters, Yushchenko is telling his supporters to stay out on the streets. Apparently he's hoping to pull a "Georgia."

What does the government do next. Call out the tanks? Is Ukraine about to explode? If a general civil disorder ensues, who controls the nukes? What does Russia do? Guess where the refugees will go? Not Russia. Even the "Russian" Ukranians are going to beat feet for Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romaina, EU countries all. What does the EU do?

This is serious business. So, while I'm willing to take as a given that Ukrainians may not have a "historical claim to independence" (whatever the fsck that means) it really has no bearing on the reality on the ground does it?

Personally, I think this may well turn out to be one of those turning points where the EU really begins to make it's own way geopolitically. They are going to have to take point on this if things turn ugly. Given that the U.S. cannot walk and chew gum at the same time -- Sec State designate Rice's Soviet credentials notwithstanding, it's the EU or nothing. We'll see.

The way I see it there are three models; 1) Serbia 1992, where the country teeters on the brink but eventually the protests peter out or there is a compromise of some sort that averts disaster, 2) Georgia 2004, peaceful transfer to the "legitimate" election winner, 3) Um, I can't think of a recent one, but basically the government cracks down and either general disorder or geurilla war follows with the Russians not far behind.

 

Sigh. What you think of as liberal does not mean liberal in Ukraine. This has been true for centuries. If you actually look at what the liberals in these countries stand for, you'd be amazed how well their views line up with the conservative Western European parties.
One hundred years ago, there was a significant "liberal" movement in Russia. Rostoftzeff, for example, was an epitome of it. Sadly, once he got to Oxford and Yale, Westerners realized that this "liberal" was a believer in an enlightened despot. Liberal for Russia/Ukraine doesn't really mean liberal. You assume they think like you. You are wrong.

 

It was 40 years, right? Only 40 years, and yet the Easterners are still thought of as second-class citizens in Germany.
And the Ukies have been Russian for over 1000 years. How easy is it, do you think, to break this?
Even if they want to, even if they try to with all their might, they cannot escape who they are. It's called national identity and that's the one they got, whether they like it or not.

The democrats in Russia have the same vision. And their vision is even more realistic since it doesn't involve creating a new national identity. Or so it seems, because being democratic, "western" and prosperous IS A WHOLE NEW NATIONAL IDENTITY!
And the Russian people have rejected it numerous times.
Just as the Ukies did now.

 

Why would they want it?

I'm not going to speak for Shurik, just for myself. You see this as some sort of a watershed. Why? In all likelihood after some small amount of rioting dies down, the next President will continue to instill fear, smother dissent, execute inconvenient journalists and try to drag Ukraine out of the economic morass its been in for millenia. And the Ukranians will go back to the borscht, vodka and potatoes while watching their pensions rise slightly. This isn't a seminal event in Eastern Europe. Hell, Russians, generally far more educated, don't care about these sorts of things. Look at the numbers that voted for Putin! You think you can waltz in there and explain to them how authoritarianism and centralization of personal power in the office of President/Czar/Premier is bad? They'll just look at you blankly, as if you were trying to describe an elephant to a blind man.

People think democracy is on the horizon. Well, let me relate my personal favorite Communist era joke. A young man freshly minted from Comsomol goes to the hinterland to lecture peasants on the wonders of this new communism. Its on the horizon, he proudly declares. Well, and old woman asks of him - "tell me, sonny, what's this 'horizon' you speak of?" Well, the man replies, its the line where the sky meets the earth, and its constantly moving away from you as you get closer. "I see", replies the granny. So yes, in that sense, Democracy is on the horizon for Ukraine. Imminent.

 

Spot on! American Democrats would be utterly amazed to find out that Russian and Ukie "liberals" support unregulated markets, enforced religious morality and, in more extreme cases, a constitutional monarchy.

 

Traditionallty, "liberalism" tended to support unregulated markets. As for focing religious morality, that is unliberal. I believe that forced virtue is not virtue.

As for constitutional monarchy, I am also a small "r" republican, but believe that in some cases, constitutional monarchy can be a good thing, especially in countries trying to overcome an authoritarian past (see Spain after Franco, Japan after WWII, Cambodia today).

 

No, simply because there is no need to. The Ukrainians have already asserted their priorities by themselves.

 

Right, but you have to understand that these are people who are more liberal than the other party. For Russia, they're liberal because they want to imprison you for immorality rather than kill you. Its an improvement.

I agree. But the problem is that if these are the liberals, how much in common will they have with the mainstream EU thought? They're a different culture. Considering squig here is busy informing us that we barbaric Americans can't be admitted to the EU because of the death penalty, what chance do the neo-royal Ukranians have?
At least the former Soviet bloc countries had anti-communist movements to fall back on for exhibits on how to run a democracy. Why did Ukraine leave the USSR? Because it was the cool thing to do. And the other Eastern countries have always been closer to Western Europe. The Czech Republic has been out of Austria's orbit for what, 50 out of the last 500 years? The Ukraine has been part of Russia for 1000.

 

Why does the OSZE say that the election was fake? why does the Eu do that (did they do that when Putin was elected, or while that thing in georgria happened?) Why are the Ukrainians at the streets? Why did every poll made by western standards say that Janukowitsch is faking the election? Why do even the city councils of many cities say that???
yahoo.de
What nicephoras and Shurik say just does not make sense.
From your point of view democracy in Japan would not have been possible, let alone Korea. The Nazi wiped every Democracy out of Germany, and many social democrats were killed in concentration camps, only a small number of refugees returned. But still we learned how democracy works. Why can#t you admitt that the Ukrainians are at least trying to do that. And how the heck do you explain georgia having more or less successfully done that? They are not a democratic country yet by our standards, but they are on the right way.
It was guys like you why Hitler was successfull. Evereything is right if it seems to be right. Heil Janukowitsch!
good night.

 

There is a weeny bit of difference between saying that things happened exactly the way they should have and welcoming them.
You should consider this before branding me a Nazi.

Was the Ukie election 100% honest? Of course it wasn't!
Is it possible to have a 100% honest election in Ukraine? Of course it is not.

Which only proves how "western" they are!

Is democracy possible in Ukraine and Russia? Possibly, sometime.
Is Ukraine possible separately from Russia? Not in my day.

 

We're saying it doesn't much matter. Haven't you been reading?

Because protesting together is more fun than drinking alone. Relieves the boredom.

You mean like the US exit polls that predicted a comfortable win for Kerry?

It makes perfect sense, you just don't understand it. We're saying that a) these elections won't change much in the overall scheme of things, as both sides will assiduously begin exerting totalitarian control, one will just be a little nicer about it, b) these "liberals" don't want what you want. They want something very different. Just because they're liberals doesn't make them liberals in the Western mold, and c) Ukranians know the elections weren't all kosher. And they won't overly care, much like the Russians haven't.
Would I like for Ukraine to become more Democratic? Sure I would! Is it going to happen any time soon? No! Why not? Because they don't understand what that means. They're Russians - they know totalitarianism. And until they develop the social structures necessary to support democracy, doing all you can to ensure that a legitimate election takes place will be trying to fidget with a bandage on a severed limb.

If you know your history, it took quite a long time for that to happen, and Korea was under US domination for 35 years until it became a viable democracy. In those 35 years it was authoritarian.

Do you really not understand the difference between a culture who had a 10 year experiment with totalitarianism but was at the forefront of the liberal revolutions of 1848 and one who has expereinced nothing but totalitarianism for its entire history?

Do what? Which Ukranians? Even if I take your electoral results as the gospel, it still means 45% at least want nothing to change. You think the other 55% want Ukraine to be just like Germany. Wrong; they want Ukraine to be a very reactionary version of Germany, one you wouldn't recognize.

Well, if you ignore the fact that they're the most corrupt country in Eurasia, sure, they're on the right track.

As someone who lost family in the Holocaust, I hope carnivorous ticks use your rectum for a picnic. It was Germans who allowed Hitler to be successful by voting for him, and then following his orders.

Yes, that's exactly what we're all saying. You don't understand the argument, so just insult us. Brilliant!

 

Noted. I'll feel free to wave this around if it turns out to be a seminal event. And if it doesn't I'll also admin you were right

 

Saying that you are a Nazi would be like saying Chumberlain is a Nazi. Appeasemant policy is what I compared you to, not Facism.

Are ppl on the streets at this very moment in the Ukraine? Do you think an election were poor ppl get payed for whom they vote for is the right thing to do? Do you honestly think that the Western nation are right to let Russia do whatever they want in checheney? I don't. Ok, I am still inside the nation that 'allied up' with Russia when it comes to Iraq, and I don't like Schröder not criticising anything in Russia (Media controll for example, checheney, Yukos...) Russia should at least not be allowed to call itself a democratic country.
the Ukraine is allready separated from Russia, partly, but if you want to put it that way germany is not entirely seperated from Russia, we depend on their oil, as well as you depend on the Saudi's oil...

Some Ukrainians think it matters though...

What is one supposed to answer to that? The questions you can't answer with facts you answer with silly jokes.

So u mean the US election was faked too because the americans get used too it? interesting theory.
(Of course I know that you don't mean that but you mean that polls might be wrong. But in the US the polls at the end changed all towards Bush. in The Ukraine they didn't.

I think the problem is that you and Shurike are just being pessimistic when it comes to teh Ukraine? We say that the ppl on the street is a positive sign and that we should support them, you say it won't change anything and that we should just leave it alone. It's just optimism vs pessimism, and we won#t find an answer to that question.

isn't my history but Koreas, which I don't know I admitt. I see what is supporting your theory is germany's Democracy falling in 1933. But then shouldn't it have been fallen sooner? There was almost no democratic thinking in the majority of the population pre the Weimarer republic after the 1848 revolution failing...

Do you really call Germany only being 10 years under a totalitarian system? What would you call the 2nd Reich? democratic? Hitler got in charge because many parts of the population wanted back to the 'goold old time' and voted Ultra conversationalistic, which helped Hitler. They didn't get the 2nd reich back, but thats another story. You are doing what I have been doing all night: symplifying!

They want the Ukraine to be a different version of what it is today. I would recognize it.
Poland is not Germany, but today's Poland isn't Poland 10 years ago. Same with the Ukraine.

Don't you think that could change???

I did not mean to call anyone a Nazi 8besides Hitler), but both he and Janukowitsch are totalitarian leaders. Chamberlain let Hitler do what he wanted, you want the western countries ( and Ukrainian opposition) to do the same thing in a smaller degree.

That's what you'v been doing all wee, only a more subtle way, sorry.

I didn't want to ccall anyone posting here a Nazi, and if someone felt insulted I hereby apology for that.
If I got your posts clear finally it is just about being optimistic and pessimistic towards the Ukraine. I'll leave you with being the way you are if you leave me the way I am. Let's all be cheerfull if my way comes true, and sad if yours, history will judge over us ;-)
peace?