Basically you talk about a total shutdown of ME oil shipment. I am not sure that policy will go too well with world recession in the mind.
I think the likelihood of that happening in light of the shift in power in the US is significantly reduced. Majority of what we hear now is more along the lines of talking with Iran etc to try and resolve the Iraq issue and I'm guessing that will be formalised once Bakers report is released
The key is what the price to pay. Frankly, USA will lose any influence in Iraq if the troops pull out. But too much chaos in Iraq may not be good for Iran too. USA can totally create havoc and just left, but Iran has to live with it. So there is some common interest. Question for Israel is that any of the prices here not invloving a sellout of their interets. Iran is benefiting from Demark Cartoon incident, Afghan War, Iraq War, and Lebanon War, so they are kind of cocky now and may put their asking price a little too high.
I'm afraid Israel is going to be screwed, the only question is in which orifice. I'm only hoping that Israel will mimic some of Iran's strategies in the region. First, Israel needs to realize that terrorism bears little (if any) cost, especially if you deny it tongue-in-cheek style. Instead of whining about it, Israel needs to develop their own effective terror organizations. While there aren't any easy pickings (i.e. Shias for Iran), Israel needs to arm and develop closer relations with the non-Persian minorities of the Middle East (Kurds, Christians, ect.). Next, Israel should elect a far right-wing leader. Have Lieberman or (better) Eitam as PM, bad cop, with Bibi playing the role of good cop. Third, Israel needs to realize that only she can prevent forest fires. Relying on others never works. Lastly, Israel should NOT support any rhetoric about a war with Iran. That hand has been played out and Iran won whether or not some Israelis or Americans fully understand that. Furthermore, an all-out war would only help the Arabs.
I don't know if Israelis are good chess players. First of all, taking Israeli off from so-called "Global War on Terror". Israeli only has one main focus--that is peace process with Palestain. Not likely too many other Arab countries interest a fight with Israeli and without Iran's order, Hazibellah will not attack Israeli. Secondly, any diplomatic solution with Iran should take mutual hostility out of two countries--Israeli should not attack Iran and Iran should not attack Israel . Make the Palestain peace process as a key issue and ask Iran to play a contructive role. Third, reach an agreement with Syria about what kind of influence it should have in Lebanon. Making some concession in return on Syrian's concession with Hamas. Fourth, starts to engage Russia and China on ME peace process. US and EU may lose some of neutrality from eyes of other side.
The war on terror is over. Terror won. I'm not sure you have chess in mind...more like an episode of Fantasy Island. I suppose anything is possible.
First, Israel has been engaged in precisely what you suggest, albeit with no real success! However, since no mainstream (i.e., genuinely popular) organizations from even the subgroups of any of the ethnic or religious communities in the Middle East ultimately want to have anything to do with Israel, the Israelis have been stuck supporting what are nothing but glamorized terrorist groups representing foreign interests, not even in their own communities. The best examples in this regard are the "Christian" groups that Israel supported in Lebanon, such as the mercenary South Lebanese Army, or the terrorist Kurdish groups in Iraq now. Neither of these groups were even genuinely popular among their own ethnic and religious communities, much less enjoying any wider popular appeal! In Iran's case, on the other hand, the groups it supports are the ones that are most popular not only among their own subgroup but in the larger community at large (e.g., Hezbollah in Lebanon, SCRI and the shia parties in Iraq, Hamas in Palestine, etc). There is no comparison, except the abuse of false labels, between any of these groups (and the legitimacy they enjoy on the ground in their respective countries) as compared to what Israel and the US have been supporting in the region. Second, and relatedly, if you want to create a permanent home for the Jews in the Middle East, you need to stop and ask yourself what ideology would work in that regard; what alliances would help you in that regard; and what formulations what make that possible. Let me say this clearly and unequivocally: regardless of the time frame, at some point, outside powers (Europe-UN after WWII, US today) will not be able to provide the legitimacy that you need, nor will anyone nor any force be able to save you absent that legitimacy. You will need to be genuinely accepted by your neighbors eventually, or there will never be peace and one day that will mean there will no Israel of any kind. What kind of solution will bring that acceptance? The answer to the last question is the one you will find in Iran. Indeed, while you have dismissed my suggestion, let me tell you that its details and contours would surprise you greatly. That is because the one country that does not want Israel to be truly wiped off from the Middle East is Iran. Iran wants to just make sure that its interests and sphere are protected, and that the US doesn't have a place to meddle in the region based on conflicts it has had hand in creating in the first place. It has always been, from Iran's perspective, a rivalry between Iran and the US. Even if this might not sit well with you, in fact even if Israel were one day to become a genuine superpower on its own, it would require a huge leap in Iranian thinking to regard you as such. For Iran, at the moment, Israel is merely a "western colonial outpost". If it were transformed into a Jewish state allied to Iran (and not as part of an alliance where Iran itself is forced to look to the US for direction), Iran would have no problems with Israel.
Any land disputes between Iran and Israel? Any Jews got killed and murdured by Iran or any Iranians got killed and murdured by Israel? As I remember that Iran didn't become a Muslim country post-Shah. Was that time Iran so busy to work on the project called "Wipe off Israel out of Map"? If you look on the map, the increasing influence of Iran has the first victim as Arabs (Saudi, Egypt, etc.), not Israel. Any lip service of anti-Israel rehoric is more like "appeasing" dumb Arab mass who in turn to "check" their governments in case they want some USA actions against Iran.
I agree with you that a positive relationship with Iran is the ideal scenario for Israel. Yet one can not dismiss the extreme anti-Israel ideology of the Islamic Republic even if it is partly designed to fool the Arabs. I think you misunderstand the thrust of my argument. I want Israel to scale down the conflict with Iran!
I want Israel to do a lot more engaging though I understand that success will be limited for obvious reasons. A permanent sovereign state, not merely a "permanent home." This is simply not negotiable. Israel has gradually been gaining acceptance in the Arab world. This will be a very long process which can only be resolved by Israelis and Arabs. At the moment, the Islamic Republic of Iran is stimulating the most extreme elements in the Arab world, trying to undermine over half a century of progress. The fundmental problem with your vision is that it dismisses legitmate Arab aspirations. There is simply no way the Arabs will tolerate a Middle East dominated by Iran. In fact, the main reason that I might even be willing to live with Iran's "peaceful nuclear energy" program (noting that Iran is winning this conflict) is because further escalation of the conflict will provoke an even more dangerous Arab response.
I agree, Saudi Arabia and Iran will replace Israel-Iran issue very soon, as those two will have a much larger conflict.
Basically Saudi and Co don't like the way Lebanon is turning and their lose influence over Hamas on Palestain issue. But Lebanon is not just Iran is doing pushing. Syria is a main factor too. Considering the historical issue, you have to accept a certain degree of Syrian influence in that country. Basically I think that a broad brush of Global War on Terror which disregard all subtle details in any conflicts as a dumb approach. Peace with Palestainians is Israeli's problem. How to deal with Hazibelloh is Israeli's problem. Working on good faith with Arab neighbors is Israeli's problem. Iraq is not and Iran is not.
hezbollah is not just Israel's problem. hezbollah is in essence a foreign power trying to gain control of a country. They are trained, financed and report to iran and to a much lesser degree syria. The fact that these other 2 countries feel the need to interfere with the internal workings of another country, and use a terrorist group to further their attempts at wiping another nation off the map makes the issue more then just Israel's problem.
This is not really news, right? http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1967676,00.html Hamas: we will never recognise Israel and of course who could forget where Hamas is getting help...
And yet some around here continue to think that iran didn't order hezbollah to start the war this past summer. In fact some even think that Israel started the war. As for the ME and the subject at hand, unless some sort of change happens, the makings are there for the tinderbox known as the ME to explode into a major war.
I'm one of the "some" that think that Israel started the war and have clearly explained my reasoning. It was a little more involved than some other peoples claims for Hezbollah starting it
If there is war between Iran and the US. We will be the biggest beneficiaries, we wont suffer at all. Iran could only muster terrorist attacks on American installments in the Gulf. Before they know it, Iran will look like Iraq today, carpet bombed even worse, because it will only be Shock and awe to Mission accomplished phase for the americans. They will not intend to stay, nor do they care about winning your hearts and minds.
This deserves to be repeated. If the US and Iran do go at it, that war will not be like the last war.
The bizarre Holocaust conference which included neo-Nazis and had the active support and involvement of the Iranian leadership not only sparked outrage, but raised serious questions about the sanity of the Islamic Republic. Regardless of what the Iranian posters on Big Soccer claim, I'm sure they were cringing as Ahmadinejad gave the world a two day demonstration on why the world must stop Iran's nuclear ambitions. My sense is still that Iran has called America's bluff, but given Bush's stubborness and the Islamic Republic's arrogant and erratic behavior, I think an attack on Iran is now a small possiblity. If there is a war, I would not make any predictions on the outcome.
Iran is making it easier to justify an attack on their nuclear program, not only with their govt.s silly conferences and comments, but they are also stating they will share their nuclear secrets with the arabs. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4943782.stm