I'm having a hard time imagining the following players being in MLS by 2005/2006.. Howard Friedel Cherundolo Boca O'Brien Beasley Donavon Mathis Casey Martino Convey ....basically name all the players with the 'best' chance of being 2005/2006 starters...In fact, I expect most will be with mid to top level teams in Europe, not just 'in' Europe... I tend to think if a Mathis or Martino are still around MLS by 2005 or 2006, it will likely mean that their form has dropped or flattened...and therefore, they may not be Nat starter material anymore.. This is not an indictment of MLS, simply that our best/brightest talent(s) will likely be max-ing out their talents in Europe by then and/or MLS simply will not be able to match $ proposition from Euro clubs/salary for top players by then...Hell, even Freddy might not wait until WC to go to Europe Except for the eternal homeboy Pope... Maybe Clark or Mastro will be MLS, but I think the better one (whoever that will be) will be in Europe too.... I could see: Howard/Friedel (Man U/Arsenal) Pope (MLS), Boca (top Euro club), Gibbs (mid-level 1BL) Martino (English 1st), O'Brien (Barca?), Donovan (top Euro), Beasley (mid-level Euro), Reyna/Convey (mid-level English) Casey (1st BL), Mathis (mid-level English)
It is too early to tell, yet I admit I think of the same thing myself. I think Martino will be in Europe after the WC.
I would think by '06, MLS could field new talent that would eclipse some of that which is in our player pool right now.
Opporunities AND TRANSFER FEES for Yanks going abroad should be going up over next 2-3 years....I have serious doubts if MLS will be able to match these for most/many of the listed players (or even want too...I mean, c'mon, 2m+ for MLS coffers for Howard- Metros plug in Cannon, same diff. for attendence....I think we will see MLS working hard to get to profitability, and fatty transfer fees help- also young talent pool is deep enough, IMO, to lose 5-7 Nat caliber each year, and replace with younger upand comers)....also, the players listed are in the career "sweet" spot of going over...not too young (like Beas, Donavon were before WC 2002) but not too old either (maybe Mastro and Mathis will be by then).... but really Agoos, Armas, Jones, etc. were too old by 2001-2002 to go abroad seriously for term Keeping the stars from 2002 only worked because (A) a couple just weren't ready yet (B) Transfer market was depressed and (C) American players were STILL- despite 2002 success- considered ....well....risky/untested....that "rap" is slowing fading, Friedel maybe having something to do with it (and realisation that 2002 was not a big fluke)...Euros are also traditionalists, so it takes a little while to change habits.. Buddle is one I forgot....I also doubt he'll still be around (MLS) by then...he's going to get some offers...
For all those guys to be in Europe by then, MLS will have to significantly alter the way they value players and handle transfers. For many of those guys, their presence in MLS is worth more than the cash they'll get if they sell them. And that's the intangible for which I don't think you're accounting. Take Beasley for example. How much can he really be worth on the open market -- $2 million or so? Yet, he has been a cornerstone of MLS marketing, is a recognizable face for the league, and surely puts a few butts in the seats. Is losing that worth $2 million to MLS? So far, MLS has said "no." This is one of the things that really sucks about single entity. MLS has a broader view of "player value" than would the Chicago Fire. If Chicago held his contract and made transfer decisions, they wouldn't account for his value to MLS as a whole in determining his worth. I have no doubt that all of those guys could perform in mid-to-top Euro leagues, but they won't all be there. I think, until Europe realizes what a bargain MLS/American players are and clubs adjust their offers accordingly, you won't see any sort of material change in the number of Americans playing there. Eventually I expect Americans to play in Europe in significant numbers, but it will take longer than four years for it to happen. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that of the six current MLS players on your list, no more than three will be in Europe by 2006. Sorry my post was so long!
I agree that its too early to tell. People probably thought something not too different from this back in '99. McBride was on loan at Preston, Olsen at Forest. Donovan and Hejduk were at Leverkusen. Moore to Everton. Plus we didn't know what many of the MLS players on the 2002 team were capable of.
There will be a handful of MLSers on the roster, but no idea who they'll be. Except that I don't think Pope will be one of them. He's as good a center back as anyone in the world right now and his contract is up after this season. Bye bye.
Except he's turned down contract offers to Europe before. Maybe now that he's out of his "homeowtn area" of D.C. and all his charities, he won't mind moving abroad.
Reyna and Friedel are old, they'll come back to roost before they retire, especially Reyna since he hasn't played in the US since college. I don't think Casey's going to make it in the Bundesliga. I wouldn't be suprised to see him do a Kirovski and bounce around for awhile. Speaking of, I wouldn't be suprised to see Kirovski back in the US in a couple years.